Evan Silva’s Matchups: Week 2

 

 

MIN @ PHI | GB @ ATL | LV @ BUF | BAL @ CIN | SEA @ DET | LAC @ TEN | CHI @ TB | KC @ JAX | IND @ HOU | SF @ LAR | NYG @ ARI | NYJ @ DAL | WAS @ DEN | MIA @ NE | NO @ CAR | CLE @ PIT

 

 

Thursday Night Football

Minnesota @ Philadelphia

Team Totals: Eagles 27.5, Vikings 20.5

#PrimeTime Kirk Cousins will have his Week 2 work cut out with starting LT Christian Darrisaw (ankle) and C Garrett Bradbury (back) nursing short-week injuries ahead of Philly’s home opener. Hulking Eagles first-round DT Jalen Carter generated nine pressures in his NFL debut, while seven different Birds laid hits on Mac Jones. Cousins’ matchup remains favorable enough for low-end QB1 valuation — Jones banked Week 1’s overall QB2 fantasy result against Philadelphia — but I’m also anticipating a productive night from the Eagles’ D/ST. … After managing 44 total yards and a receiving TD that saved his Week 1 box score against the Bucs, Alexander Mattison encounters another tough draw at Philly, which stymied Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott for a combined Opening Day rushing line of 19/54/0 (2.8 YPC). The Eagles did cough up 13 receptions to Patriots running backs and lost top LB Nakobe Dean (Lisfranc, I.R.) indefinitely. It helps that Mattison’s workload is secure; he appeared on 74% of Minnesota’s offensive snaps versus Tampa Bay, five of six third downs, and was on the field for all three of the Vikings’ goal-line chances. Mattison is a volume-driven RB2 play on Thursday night. Ty Chandler is just a change of pace.

UPDATE: The Vikings declared C Garrett Bradbury out for Thursday night, a worrisome development against the Eagles’ mega-talented DT foursome of Jalen Carter, Fletcher Cox, Jordan Davis, and Milton Williams. I’m confidently teeing up Philly’s D/ST and downgrading Minnesota’s entire offense.

Cousins’ Week 1 target distribution: Justin Jefferson 12; T.J. Hockenson 9; Jordan Addison and K.J. Osborn 6; Mattison 4; Josh Oliver and C.J. Ham 3; Chandler 1. … 2022’s NFL Offensive Player of the Year, Jefferson picked up right where he left off in last week’s loss to Tampa and has now drawn double-digit targets in 12 of his last 18 regular-season games (67%). Eagles No. 2 CB James Bradberry (concussion) isn’t going to play on a short week, while No. 1 CB Darius Slay is 32.5 years old. Jefferson should cook on TNF. … First-round rookie Addison caught four of six targets for 61 yards and a touchdown in his debut but played behind Osborn, whose 91% snap rate dwarfed Addison’s (56%). I really like Osborn as a one-game DFS sleeper. I’m treating Addison as a fringe WR3/4 until his role increases. … A target vacuum following his 2022 acquisition from Detroit, Hockenson remained heavily involved in 2023’s opener with eight catches on nine targets. Especially after Dean’s injury, Hockenson is set up for a big Thursday nighter. Perennially vulnerable to tight ends, the Eagles got worked for 8/92/1 by Patriots TEs on Opening Day.

UPDATE: The Eagles will also be without FS Reed Blankenship (ribs), creating a compound injury situation in the middle of their defense with ILB Nakobe Dean (foot) sent to I.R. Adding James Bradberry, Philadelphia lost three starting defenders on Opening Day.

I’m expecting an Eagles offensive explosion after their largely underwhelming Week 1 win over New England, whose defense attacked Philly’s offense in zone coverage that eliminated deep shots and won up front in the run game. Aware of his pass defense’s talent limitations, Vikings DC Brian Flores blitzed on a league-high 47% of Baker Mayfield’s Week 1 dropbacks as part of a high-variance approach Jalen Hurts & Co. could exploit. I bet the over on the Eagles’ Week 2 team total at 27.5 points (-110). … Even after #EstablishTheRun pop sleeper Kenneth Gainwell operated as Philly’s clear Week 1 lead back — he handled career highs in touches (18) and snap rate (62%) at New England — Gainwell emerged from the game with a rib injury and now faces Minnesota on a short week. I don’t know what to do with Philly’s running back unit here. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Rashaad Penny is active after being a healthy Week 1 scratch, while D’Andre Swift and Boston Scott obviously remain candidates for touches and snaps. If Penny does play, I’m teeing him up in single-game DFS-tournament settings.

UPDATE: The Eagles ruled out starting RB Kenneth Gainwell (ribs). I’m tentatively expecting D’Andre Swift to lead the backfield this week but could also envision Rashaad Penny piling up a bunch of second-half carries if Philly jumps out to a lead. (I think they can win big here.)

Hurts’ Week 1 target distribution: A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith 10; Gainwell 4; Swift and Quez Watkins 2; Scott and Dallas Goedert 1. … Flores’ high-frequency blitzing bodes well for Brown and Smith’s chances of getting free deep. Blitzes sacrifice at least one player in coverage in exchange for an extra rusher. In this matchup, both Brown and Smith are legitimate WR1s. … Goedert was somewhat unsurprisingly silenced by the Patriots in Week 1; New England annually plays stingy tight end coverage. The Vikings weren’t hurt by Bucs tight ends last week, but I’m nevertheless riding with Goedert as a TE1. Based on comments from the coaching staff, the Eagles are going to make it a point to get Goedert early targets against Minnesota as this week’s #SqueakyWheel. … Watkins convincingly held off Olamide Zaccheaus for the Eagles’ No. 3 receiver job in training camp and is a playable dart throw in one-game DFS tournaments against Minnesota’s unimposing backend.

Score Prediction: Eagles 34, Vikings 20

 

 

Green Bay @ Atlanta

Team Totals: Falcons 21, Packers 19.5

I took the Falcons to cover the 1.5-point spread in this one with top Packers skill-position player Aaron Jones (hamstring) likely to miss and top WR Christian Watson (hamstring) trying to work his way back. … Jordan Love turned in a promising opener; his mobility popped off the screen, Love averaged 9.1 yards per pass attempt, and he would have thrown a fourth touchdown pass had a wide-open Luke Musgrave not fallen down at the end of a 37-yard completion just shy of the end zone. Yet Love had a clean pocket all game — the Bears ranked 31st in Week 1 pressure rate — and Love’s weapons are dropping like flies. I’m approaching him as a mere QB2 this week, especially considering this game’s low total. … A.J. Dillon looked slower than molasses against Chicago, but his workload projection is too high to ignore assuming Jones sits. The Falcons’ defensive front looked vulnerable in Week 1’s win over Carolina, coughing up 167 total yards and 4.9 yards per carry to Panthers backs. Dillon is a volume-based RB2 starter at Atlanta.

Love’s Week 1 target distribution: Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed 5; Jones and Musgrave 4; Dillon and Samori Toure 3; Dontayvion Wicks 2; Malik Heath 1. … Fifth-round rookie Wicks led Packers wideouts in Week 1 snaps, second-round rookie Reed was No. 2, Doubs and UDFA rookie Heath tied for third, and Toure was fifth as part of a five-man WRBC. … Musgrave looks like Green Bay’s best fantasy pass-catcher bet. Musgrave played more snaps and ran more routes than every Packers wide receiver, while Week 2 opponent Atlanta served up 5/41/1 receiving to Hayden Hurst last week. … Even after Doubs hit paydirt twice at Chicago, I prefer Reed this week straight up. Doubs is still fighting a preseason hamstring strain, while Reed’s 34% Air Yards share led the Packers in Week 1. Both Reed and Doubs are WR3/flex options.

The Falcons deployed Desmond Ridder as a strict game manager in Week 1’s thumping of Carolina; he finished with just 22 dropbacks and a tiny 3.5-yard aDOT. Ridder is a low-end two-QB-league play. … HC Arthur Smith built his Opening Day offense around his running backs, feeding Tyler Allgeier 18 touches and Bijan Robinson 16. Whereas Allgeier was featured in scoring position with four carries inside the Panthers’ 10-yard line, Robinson was featured in the passing game with a team-high six targets among Ridder’s 18 attempts. The Falcons are physical enough on the offensive line and committed enough to these two that both Allgeier and Robinson can be fantasy starters, Robinson of the RB1 variety and Allgeier as an RB2/flex. I expect each to handle 13-19 touches against the Packers. … The obvious losers in Atlanta’s RB-centric approach are Drake London and Kyle Pitts. London air-balled on a single Week 1 target and seemed often to be Ridder’s second read behind Mack Hollins. Pitts has cleared 50 yards just twice over his last 12 games. I’m still starting Pitts as a low-end TE1, but I need to see something from London first.

Score Prediction: Falcons 23, Packers 20

 

 

Las Vegas @ Buffalo

Team Totals: Bills 27.5, Raiders 19

The Raiders trek cross country to Buffalo for a 1:00 p.m. ET game but do stand to benefit from the Bills playing on a short week. Jimmy Garoppolo does not stand to benefit from the loss of Jakobi Meyers, the two-TD star of Week 1 who suffered a scary concussion at Denver. … HC Josh McDaniels would be smart to lean on Josh Jacobs after Jets RBs torched the Bills for 224 total yards and 6.9 YPC last Monday night. Jacobs is coming off a painfully unlucky opener in which he logged five carries inside the 10-yard line and failed to execute on any of them. Jacobs did handle 21 of 23 (91%) touches in Vegas’ backfield and remains a locked-in RB1 here. … Meyers’ absence should increase McDaniels and Garoppolo’s emphasis on feeding Davante Adams, who did draw nine targets on Opening Day. He needs to see double digits here, and when Adams does so, he cooks. Adams’ last six stat lines on double-digit targets are 7/153/2, 8/177/2, 7/74/0, 7/141/2, 9/126/1, and 10/146/2. … Hunter Renfrow, Kristian Wilkerson, and DeAndre Carter rounded out the Raiders’ active wide receivers in Week 1. They all played equally and combined for one target. … TEs Austin Hooper and Michael Mayer are sharing time almost right down the middle. No fun.

This is a prime bounce-back spot for Buffalo’s offense after the hyper-talented Jets defense put clamps on Josh Allen last Monday night. The Raiders were barely tested by game manager Russell Wilson in Week 1, but DC Patrick Graham’s unit coughed up the NFL’s eighth-most fantasy quarterback points in 2022, and this year’s defensive personnel looks negligibly better. No. 7 overall pick EDGE Tyree Wilson was a ghost last Sunday, and Chandler Jones (hurt feelings) isn’t even playing. Allen is my overall QB1 in fantasy for Week 2. … I’m still on the fence about James Cook as a potential fantasy starter after he was pulled in scoring position and too many passing situations for my liking against the Jets. Although he played far ahead of Latavius Murray and Damien Harris, Cook wound up with 63 empty yards on 16 touches. I want my fantasy starters to dominate high-value opportunities. I have Cook as a flex option.

Allen’s Week 1 target distribution: Stefon Diggs 13; Cook 6; Gabe Davis, Dalton Kincaid, Dawson Knox, and Deonte Harty 4; Murray and Harris 2. … Allen-to-Diggs DFS stacks should be extremely popular after Diggs dominated the Jets’ stout secondary en route to 10/102/1 receiving in Week 1. The Raiders’ starting perimeter corners are 30-year-old journeyman Marcus Peters and fourth-round rookie Jakorian Bennett. … Following last Monday night’s loss, HC Sean McDermott implicitly called out Davis for not making enough plays. I could envision a scenario where OC Ken Dorsey proactively tries to get Davis going here, and an alternative scenario where Davis’ playing time is cut in favor of Harty. He’s a boom-bust WR3 option in Week 2’s plus draw. … First-round TE Kincaid’s underlying usage was on point against the Jets, but he was not utilized nearly enough downfield, finishing with a pathetic six Air Yards on four targets. I’m treating Knox and Kincaid as if they’re canceling each other out until one clearly emerges.

Score Prediction: Bills 30, Raiders 20

 

 

Baltimore @ Cincinnati

Team Totals: Bengals 25, Ravens 21.5

Coming off an up-and-down debut in first-year OC Todd Monken’s offense, Lamar Jackson faces a Bengals defense that in Week 1 held Deshaun Watson to 5.3 yards per pass attempt but did concede 5/45/1 rushing to Watson. Yet Mark Andrews (hamstring) remains questionable after another limited practice week, and it looks like the Ravens won’t have LT Ronnie Stanley (knee) or C Tyler Linderbaum (ankle). Jackson is a boom-bust QB1 this week. Cincinnati’s D/ST is a sleeper. … J.K. Dobbins‘ Achilles tear leaves Baltimore’s backfield for Justice Hill, Gus Edwards, and Melvin Gordon. I’m expecting a near-50-50 split between Hill and Edwards with The Gus Bus featured on early downs and Hill handling passing situations. Gordon looks like mere insurance. The Browns trampled Cincinnati’s defensive front for 206 yards, 5.2 yards per carry, and Watson’s rushing score, although Cleveland’s offensive line is far superior to Baltimore’s. I’m viewing Hill as a low-end flex option and Edwards as a touchdown-or-bust flex play.

After another limited practice week, Andrews appears headed for a game-time decision. In his Week 1 absence, Isaiah Likely played 72% of the Ravens’ offensive snaps and ran the third-most routes on the team but drew a single target. Browns TEs collected a 5/41/1 stat line on six targets against the Bengals on Opening Day. Assuming Andrews sits, I’ll be viewing Likely as a low-floor yet still-intriguing streamer TE1 who no one will play in DFS. … Looking like a Diet Coke version of Tyreek Hill, Zay Flowers dominated Week 1 targets (10), was manufactured touches in both the run and pass games versus Houston, and delivered four plays of 15-plus yards. The Ravens’ first-round pick has already earned WR2 treatment. … Odell Beckham played over Rashod Bateman in Week 1, although each drew three targets, and neither inspires confidence as a Week 2 play. No Browns wideout hit 50 yards against Cincinnati last Sunday.

Joe Burrow turned in his career-worst start in Week 1’s 24-3 loss to Cleveland. Burrow was obviously rusty after missing all of camp/preseason due to a calf injury, while Cincinnati was badly out-coached by new Browns DC Jim Schwartz. Baltimore’s defense is nowhere near as talented as Cleveland’s, especially without ballhawk FS Marcus Williams (torn pec) and top CB Marlon Humphrey (foot). I’m putting Burrow on the QB1/2 fringe. … Trayveon Williams and Chris Evans shared passing-down work against Cleveland, although Joe Mixon still drew five targets and handled 16 of Cincinnati’s 19 backfield touches (84%). Rookie Chase Brown was a healthy scratch, and Evans risks missing Week 2 due to a hamstring injury. Even after Baltimore stymied Houston’s running game in Week 1, I’m staying optimistic on Mixon as a fringe RB1/2 starter with Cincinnati favored at home and a realistic chance at 20 touches here.

Burrow’s Week 1 target distribution: Ja’Marr Chase 9; Tee Higgins 8; Mixon and Irv Smith 5; Tyler Boyd 3; Evans 1. … Humphrey is easily Baltimore’s best corner, and Williams is their best cover safety. I’m betting heavily on a big bounce-back game for Chase, whose five career stat lines against the Ravens are 9/84/1, 8/86/1, 7/50/0, 7/125/0, and 8/201/1. … Higgins commanded a robust 26% target share against the Browns but air-balled, as almost none of his targets were catchable. I’m going right back to him as a WR2 versus Baltimore’s depleted backend. Higgins’ 60% Air Yards share ranked third in the NFL in Week 1. … Including playoffs, Boyd has cleared 50 yards in just five of his last 21 games (24%). … Smith ran as the Bengals’ Opening Day pass-catching tight end but only played 30 snaps, while Nos. 2 and 3 tight ends Drew Sample and Mitchell Wilcox combined for 25. Smith looks like a TD-or-bust streamer type at best.

Score Prediction: Bengals 24, Ravens 23

 

 

Seattle @ Detroit

Team Totals: Lions 26.5, Seahawks 21.5

Even as Patrick Mahomes failed to capitalize due to a whopping eight drops by his receivers and Travis Kelce’s absence, Detroit’s pass defense looked quite vulnerable in Week 1 against the Chiefs. The Lions didn’t sack Mahomes once on 39 dropbacks after last year surrendering the most fantasy quarterback points in the league. On Opening Day, Geno Smith was stymied by a combination of factors. Rams DC Raheem Morris frequently dropped eight into coverage — smothering Seattle’s wide receivers — while Seahawks starting OTs Charles Cross (toe) and Abe Lucas (knee, I.R.) both got hurt. Seattle also ran only 12 offensive plays in the second half; over the course of the game, the Rams’ offense ran 78 plays versus the Seahawks’ pathetic 46. While still worried about his offensive line situation, I’m backing Smith as a high-end QB2 in a plus matchup beneath Ford Field’s dome. … Kenneth Walker operated as Seattle’s clear lead back in Week 1’s defeat, handling 16 touches on 32 snaps. DeeJay Dallas (3, 11) and rookie Zach Charbonnet (3, 11) shared backup duties. The Lions’ defensive front sprung no leaks against Chiefs running backs in Week 1, yet Walker’s role and explosive-play ability render him an upside RB1/2 here.

Smith’s Week 1 target distribution: Walker, DK Metcalf, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba 5; Tyler Lockett 4; Will Dissly and Colby Parkinson 2; Dallas 1. … As Geno threw for only 112 yards in Week 1, it should come as no surprise that all of his receivers flopped against the Rams. Metcalf survived with a 10-yard TD catch in the second quarter and afterward admitted his effort level wasn’t up to par. Last year’s Lions gave up the NFL’s third-most fantasy WR points. … Smith-Njigba played only 58% of Seattle’s Week 1 offensive snaps. I expect JSN’s role to grow in due time, yet the Seahawks’ multi-tight end deployment is curtailing his playing time for now. … His role secure in two-receiver sets opposite Metcalf, Lockett is an eruption candidate inside Detroit’s dome. … Noah Fant, Dissly, and Parkinson are forming a three-way TEBC.

Rested more than 30 other NFL teams coming off Week 1’s Thursday night opener, the Lions host the Seahawks for a possible Week 2 shootout. Jared Goff was an at-home assassin in 2022, his passer rating spiking from 87.4 on the road to 109.3 at Ford Field. Over the course of his career, Goff has averaged 1.7 TD passes at home versus 1.4 in away games. This week, Goff should be locked into two-QB-league and Superflex lineups. Even with Amon-Ra St. Brown (ankle) then on the shelf, Goff torched Seattle for 378 yards and four touchdowns in last year’s Week 4 meeting. … David Montgomery operated as Detroit’s lead back in last week’s upset of K.C., out-snapping Jahmyr Gibbs 55 to 19 and out-touching Gibbs 21 to nine. Montgomery didn’t draw a single target but did run 20 pass routes and should be a safe bet for 1-3 receptions per game going forward. Gibbs’ role is certain to eventually grow; his burst and explosion popped off the screen at Kansas City. “He’ll begin to get more touches now, so that was just the beginning,” HC Dan Campbell promised following the Lions’ victory. Yet, for now, Gibbs can only be valued as a high-volatility flex play. Montgomery is a comparatively safe-floor if still low-end RB2/flex.

Goff’s Week 1 target distribution: Amon-Ra St. Brown 9; Josh Reynolds 7; Marvin Jones 6; Sam LaPorta 5; Gibbs and Brock Wright 2; Kalif Raymond 1. … ARSB is averaging 9.7 targets over his last 23 games with Goff. Seattle’s secondary got lit up by Rams fifth-round rookie WR Puka Nacua (10/119/0) and lightweight Tutu Atwell (6/119/0) in Week 1. St. Brown is a legitimate top-five WR1 play this Sunday. … Reynolds paced the Lions in Week 1 Air Yards share (36%) and actual receiving yards (80). He’s WR4/flex playable versus Seattle. … Now 33.5 years old, Jones looked like one of the NFL’s worst wide receivers last Thursday night. … Rookie LaPorta is a realistic low-end TE1; the Seahawks gave up an efficient 4/70/0 stat line on five targets to Rams tight ends last week. Against the Chiefs, LaPorta caught all five of his targets for 39 yards and appeared on 83% of the Lions’ offensive snaps. He’s already an every-down tight end.

Score Prediction: Lions 27, Seahawks 24

 

 

 

 

Chicago @ Tampa Bay

Team Totals: Bucs 22, Bears 19

Justin Fields’ Week 1 was discouraging; the third-year QB continued to grip the ball far too long in the pocket and hesitated to challenge Green Bay’s secondary downfield. Fields’ aDOT was a pathetic 3.3 yards, bottom five in the NFL. Yet despite poor on-field play, Fields finished as Week 1’s fantasy QB12 via 59 rushing yards and a third-quarter TD pass to Darnell Mooney. While disappointed in his Opening Day performance, I’m sticking with Fields as a surefire QB1 at Tampa, which yielded Week 1’s QB8 finish to Kirk Cousins. … Khalil Herbert operated as Chicago’s Week 1 lead back with D’Onta Foreman mixing in. Rookie Roschon Johnson wound up with 11 touches but wasn’t seen until garbage time. Johnson did shine on his rushing and receiving opportunities and should be stashed in most leagues. After the Bucs held Vikings RBs to 62 yards on 18 touches in Week 1, I’m valuing lead-back Herbert as an RB3/flex play.

Fields’ Week 1 target distribution: Johnson, Darnell Mooney, and Cole Kmet 7; Herbert 5; Foreman 3; D.J. Moore, Tyler Scott, and Chase Claypool 2. … Mooney dominated Week 1 Air Yards share (54%) versus Green Bay. Kmet (21%) was a distant second. In what so far appears to be a dysfunctional passing offense, Mooney remains a boom-bust WR4 and Kmet a touchdown-or-bust TE punt. … Moore played 92% of the Bears’ offensive snaps against Green Bay. Fields-to-Moore stacks would be contrarian in DFS against a Bucs secondary that conceded Week 1 receiving lines of 9/150/0 (Justin Jefferson), 4/61/1 (Jordan Addison), and 3/31/0 (K.J. Osborn). … Claypool was the worst player on the field in Chicago’s Week 1 defeat and should lose playing time for it. … The Bucs gave up 11 catches to Vikings tight ends last week. Kmet remains a near-100% player in Chicago’s offense and should be viewed as a fringe TE1/2.

Baker Mayfield is a sneaky DFS tournament and locked-in two-QB play against the Bears, who ranked 31st in the NFL in pressure rate against Jordan Love in Week 1. Mayfield has a frustrating tendency to panic and flee the pocket — usually sprinting right — when under duress but should feel clean on Sunday. … This is a bounce-back spot for Rachaad White in what projects as running back-friendly script with the Bucs favored at home. The Bears, who’ve lost 11 games in a row dating back to last year, hemorrhaged 185 total yards and two touchdowns to Packers RBs last Sunday. In Week 1’s win over the Vikings, White dominated snaps (76%) and touches (19) ahead of distant backups Sean Tucker and Chase Edmonds.

UPDATE: Chris Godwin received a matchup upgrade when the Bears placed CB Kyler Gordon (hand) on I.R. on Thursday. Gordon, who plays inside and out, would have lined up across from Godwin frequently in this game.

Mayfield’s Week 1 target distribution: Mike Evans 10; Chris Godwin 6; Cade Otton, Deven Thompkins, Ko Kieft, and Trey Palmer 3; White and Tucker 2. … Only five NFL wide receivers hogged more of their team’s Week 1 Air Yards share than Evans (53%). Packers wideouts spent much of Opening Day running past defensive backs against Chicago, while the Bears’ utter lack of pass rush bodes positively for Evans’ chances of getting loose deep. … Historically a slot player, Godwin moved outside in his first game under rookie OC Dave Canales. This is a possible forward-looking concern, yet I’m riding with Godwin as an impact WR3 in Sunday’s plus draw. … 4.33 speed burner Palmer and diminutive 2022 UDFA Thompkins are sharing time as Tampa Bay’s No. 3 receiver. … Otton played more snaps than any non-QB Bucs skill player in Week 1. Yet he drew only three targets. I’m holding onto Otton in tight end-premium leagues.

Score Prediction: Bucs 23, Bears 17

 

 

Kansas City @ Jacksonville

Team Totals: Chiefs 27, Jaguars 24

Patrick Mahomes cooked DC Mike Caldwell’s Jags defense in their two 2022 dates (including playoffs) for a combined 48 of 65 passing (74%), 526 yards (8.1 YPA), a 6:1 TD-to-INT ratio, and 47 yards rushing. Mahomes wasn’t sacked once. With Travis Kelce (knee) due back for this potential shootout, expect a big-time rebound from the two-time NFL MVP. In Week 1’s loss to Detroit, Mahomes likely would have banked 300-plus yards and a third touchdown if not for eight drops. … The Chiefs trotted out a fantasy-backbreaking three-way RBBC versus the Lions. Isiah Pacheco remained K.C.’s primary early-down back, yet Jerick McKinnon played on six of seven third downs and in both goal-line situations. Clyde Edwards-Helaire started and annoyingly siphoned 22% of Kansas City’s offensive snaps. Until the Chiefs narrow down this committee to a two-man ordeal — I think they eventually will — we can’t start any of the backs.

Kelce sounded close to playing in last Thursday’s opener and figures to go here. He trucked Caldwell’s unit for 6/81/1 and 14/98/2 stat lines in last year’s Chiefs-Jaguars games. … Kansas City gave Week 1 playing time to a whopping seven wideouts. Kadarius Toney paced the position group in targets with five but dropped four. Skyy Moore led the corps in snaps (69%) but wasn’t targeted until the third quarter and finished catchless. Marquez Valdes-Scantling continued to fail to earn targets, drawing just two on a 63% playing-time clip. Including playoffs, MVS has cleared 75 yards in just three of 21 games as a Chief. Richie James, Rashee Rice, Justin Watson, and Justyn Ross operated as low-volume role players. I think second-round pick Rice has the best odds to ascend from the complementary group, but it may be a slow burn. Andy Reid did throw public support behind Toney this week, insisting the Chiefs won’t bench him and that Toney needs to play to shake off the rust. I’m projecting Toney for another five targets this week.

Trevor Lawrence netted Week 1’s QB9 score versus the Colts with 18.7 fantasy points after he managed fantasy-point totals of 23.5 and 16.5 in last season’s two meetings with the Chiefs. This year, Lawrence is far better equipped with separation master Calvin Ridley aboard in Lawrence’s second full season under QB guru Doug Pederson. This game’s shootout potential should lock Lawrence into fantasy lineups as an upside QB1. … In Opening Day’s win, Travis Etienne out-snapped Tank Bigsby 56 to 15 and out-touched the rookie 23 to seven. Bigsby did replace Etienne twice inside the opposing 5-yard line but disappeared in the passing game. Albeit without All-Pro DT Chris Jones — who is back this week — the Chiefs gave up 134 total yards and a touchdown to Lions RBs in Week 1. Etienne is a fringe RB1/2. Bigsby remains a stash.

Lawrence’s Week 1 target distribution: Ridley 11; Zay Jones 7; Etienne and Evan Engram 5; Christian Kirk 3; Bigsby 1. … Players who miss full seasons tend to be poor bets to fully bounce back the following year, yet Ridley looked like a candidate to lead the league in receiving yards on Opening Day. I indeed bet him to do so at 40 to 1 in the middle of this week. I’m not afraid to value Ridley as a legitimate WR1 in Sunday’s potential track meet. … Jones operated as Jacksonville’s No. 2 receiver in Week 1, while Kirk ran 90% of his routes in the slot but didn’t play in two-tight end sets. And the Jaguars’ two-tight end-set rate surprisingly doubled from 2022. Talent deficient but flush with opportunity, Jones profiles as a fringe WR3/flex play versus Kansas City. Kirk needs to be devalued into boom-bust WR3/flex range. … Engram respectably drew a target on 14% of Lawrence’s Week 1 dropbacks, catching all five of his targets for 49 yards against the Colts. Lions TEs absorbed all seven of their targets for 56 yards in their Opening Day upset of the Chiefs.

Score Prediction: Jaguars 27, Chiefs 23

 

 

Indianapolis @ Houston

Team Totals: Colts 20, Texans 19

Anthony Richardson flashed Cam Newtonian upside in Week 1’s loss to Jacksonville, banking fantasy’s overall QB4 finish strengthened by a 10/40/1 rushing line. This week, Richardson faces a Texans defense missing both starting safeties in FS Jalen Pitre (lung) and SS Jimmie Ward (hip). Due to Richardson’s inexperience, I’m still treating A-Rich as a boom-bust QB1 option and willing to bet on D/STs against him. … Minus Jonathan Taylor (ankle, I.R.), Richardson has been thrust into Indy’s offensive engine role. And there are no near-term reasons to expect Richardson to slow down. … Michael Pittman Jr. looks like the Colts’ lone fantasy-playable pass catcher. In Week 1, Pittman collected an elite 27% target share on Richardson’s throws. I fully faded Pittman before the season but am willing to start him as a WR3 here.

Sans Taylor, Indianapolis’ running back corps is a mess, enhancing Richardson’s value to the team. Deon Jackson turned in a miserable opener with 28 scoreless yards and two lost fumbles on 18 touches, while rookie Evan Hull landed on I.R. with a knee injury. Zack Moss operated as the Colts’ lead back in Taylor’s training camp absence, only to break his arm. I’m expecting Richardson to remain Indianapolis’ offensive engine. … Kylen Granson has a shot to be the biggest beneficiary of Houston’s losses at safety. Colts lead TE Drew Ogletree suffered a Week 1 concussion, while Mo Alie-Cox has never commanded targets. Granson drew six looks from Richardson on Opening Day, parlaying them into four grabs for 39 yards.

The Colts’ D/ST is an exciting play against C.J. Stroud, who behind Houston’s decimated offensive line absorbed five sacks and 10 hits in Week 1’s loss to the Ravens. Stroud didn’t lead a single touchdown drive and had happy feet when pressured. … The Colts played stout Week 1 run defense, holding Jaguars RBs to a combined 28/84/2 (3.0 YPC) rushing line. Dameon Pierce’s Opening Day loss of early-down carries to Devin Singletary plus Mike Boone’s passing-down contributions lower Pierce to an RB3/flex.

Stroud’s Week 1 target distribution: Nico Collins 11; Robert Woods 10; Boone, Noah Brown, Dalton Schultz, and Tank Dell 4; Pierce 3. … Especially after fellow perimeter WR Calvin Ridley had his Week 1 way with Indianapolis’ backend (8/101/1), Collins looks WR3 playable against the Colts. Collins drew a league-high 67% of Houston’s intended Air Yards on Opening Day. … Woods is operating as the Texans’ high-percentage possession guy, presenting some PPR value but minimal upside. … Slot WR Brown’s groin injury was severe enough to send Brown to I.R., costing him at least the next four games. Enter rookie Dell, who will play in three-receiver packages moving forward and offers the highest ceiling among Texans pass catchers. Dell is a big-time sleeper against the Colts, who are starting two second-year undrafted free agents at perimeter corner. The Texans’ coaching staff envisions speedy Dell as a Marquise Brown-level player. … Schultz ran Week 1 routes on a whopping 86% of Stroud’s dropbacks against the Ravens yet finished with four yards on four targets. I’m just not bullish on Schultz’s talent.

Score Prediction: Texans 17, Colts 16

 

 

San Francisco @ L.A. Rams

Team Totals: 49ers 25.5, Rams 18.5

Fresh off imposing their will all over the Steelers at Heinz Field, the 49ers’ offense draws a Rams defense that out-coached Week 1 opponent Seattle while preying on injuries to both Seahawks starting offensive tackles. Rams DC Raheem Morris frequently dropped eight into coverage against Seattle, but he won’t be able to repeat versus San Francisco’s humming ground game. Christian McCaffrey logged 85% of the 49ers’ Week 1 running back snaps and 25 of 30 (83%) running back touches en route to 169 total yards and a score. Elijah Mitchell was surprisingly lightly deployed. McCaffrey remains this week’s overall RB1 play, and it’s not particularly close, especially with Austin Ekeler (ankle) in doubt. … Brock Purdy enters Week 2 having thrown two or more TD passes in seven straight regular-season games. Purdy’s rushing impact is minor, and he’s averaging only 27.1 pass attempts in that span, limiting his ceiling. He’s still just a two-quarterback-league starter against a Rams defense that held Geno Smith to Week 1’s QB25 score.

Purdy’s Week 1 target distribution: Brandon Aiyuk 8; Deebo Samuel 7; George Kittle 6; CMC 5; Mitchell and Jauan Jennings 1. … Aiyuk was Purdy’s favorite weapon in the second half of last season, and the two picked back up right where they left off in Week 1 against the Steelers. Dog walking pregame trash talker Patrick Peterson relentlessly, Aiyuk also endeared himself to Kyle Shanahan’s coaching staff with an ass-kicking open-field block on McCaffrey’s 65-yard touchdown run. I’m locking in Aiyuk as an every-week WR2 starter. … Deebo’s Opening Day box score was mild, but he still banked seven touches and can deliver an eruption game at any moment. I like him for a big bounce-back game here; Deebo dominates against zone coverage, and Morris plays a ton of zone. Samuel also ran a route on 100% of Purdy’s Week 1 dropbacks. … Kittle drew six Week 1 targets after seeing more than six targets in only four of 18 games (including playoffs) last season. Monster weeks are on the docket for Kittle.

Matthew Stafford was an assassin in Week 1’s upset blowout win at Seattle; only Tua Tagovailoa and Kirk Cousins threw for more than Stafford’s 334 yards, while only Tua, Derek Carr, and Jordan Love averaged more yards per attempt than Stafford’s 8.8. With Cooper Kupp (hamstring, I.R.) out indefinitely, I remain skeptical of Stafford’s sustainability, especially against a loaded 49ers defense that sacked Kenny Pickett five times with nine hits on 51 dropbacks in Week 1. I’m not ready to anoint Stafford a QB1 yet. … While I’m skeptical of Kyren Williams’ ability to maintain lead-back duties at 5-foot-9, 194 with subpar athleticism, there’s no question Williams was utilized in that capacity in Week 1’s win over the Seahawks. Cam Akers wound up logging 22 carries, yet the vast majority occurred in garbage time of L.A.’s 30-13 victory. Williams is a high-priority waiver pickup, although I’m betting against him producing this week against a 49ers defense that stymied Steelers backs for 62 scoreless yards on 18 touches last Sunday.

Stafford’s Week 1 target distribution: Puka Nacua 15; Tutu Atwell 8; Van Jefferson 5; Tyler Higbee 3; Williams, Ben Skowronek, and Brycen Hopkins 2. … Fifth-round rookie Nacua shouldn’t be taken lightly; he finished sixth among all Week 1 players in yards per route run, tied for first in the league in targets, and ran 74% of his routes on the perimeter, suggesting Nacua can stay relevant whenever slot man Kupp returns. There’s nothing friendly about Week 2’s matchup, but Nacua had all the appearances of being Stafford’s Kupp-less go-to guy on Opening Day. … Atwell, Nacua, and Jefferson each ran exactly 35 pass routes in Week 1. A 4.42 burner, Atwell’s ceiling is higher than possession type Jefferson’s. … Higbee logged an Opening Day snap rate of 91%. Last year’s 49ers permitted the NFL’s sixth-fewest fantasy points to tight ends, and the Niners held Steelers tight ends to 22 yards on eight targets in Week 1.

Score Prediction: 49ers 28, Rams 17

 

 

N.Y. Giants @ Arizona

Team Totals: Giants 22.5, Cardinals 17.5

In a low-totaled game between bottom-10 NFL teams, fantasy expectations should be limited for most Giants and Cardinals skill-position players. … Personal expectations remain high for Saquon Barkley against Arizona, which coughed up 92 yards and a touchdown to Commanders backs in Week 1. In what wound up as a 40-point loss, backups Matt Breida and Gary Brightwell played far more than expected last Sunday night. Saquon should re-enter the 20-plus-touch range with a chance to go off. … I’m cleaning the slate for Daniel Jones following Week 1’s clunker and viewing him as a viable QB1 streamer with some DFS tournament appeal. Sam Howell hung last week’s QB11 fantasy finish on Arizona, while Jones’ 13 Opening Day rushing attempts suggest he’ll continue to be utilized heavily in the Giants’ running game.

Jones’ Week 1 target distribution: Darren Waller and Darius Slayton 5; Barkley and Parris Campbell 4; Isaiah Hodgins 3; Lawrence Cager 2; Sterling Shepard, Daniel Bellinger, and Jalin Hyatt 1. … Waller accounted for 35% of Jones’ Opening Day passing yards and should stay locked into fantasy lineups at Arizona. Waller missed practice time early this week, but it sounds like part of the Giants’ maintenance plan to keep him healthy. … Slayton led all Giants wideouts in Week 1 snaps, routes run, and targets. He is always a boom-bust WR3/flex option. … New York’s Opening Day three-wideout set featured Slayton at the top, slot man Campbell second, Hodgins third, and Shepard and Hyatt sprinkling in the rotation.

The Cardinals are giving Josh Dobbs another start in Week 2, although I believe he could be on a short leash after averaging a measly 4.4 yards per pass attempt and losing two fumbles in last Sunday’s loss to Washington. Clayton Tune is going to see the field sooner rather than later. … Arizona’s most-confident Week 2 fantasy play is James Conner, who operated as a Week 1 workhorse, playing 84% of his team’s offensive snaps and handling 19 of 24 (79%) running back touches. Washington’s loaded defensive front is still going to dominate the Cards’ weak interior offensive line, curbing Conner’s projected efficiency. … No member of Arizona’s passing game inspired confidence ahead of Week 2. The team’s three-receiver set consisted of Marquise Brown and Michael Wilson with Rondale Moore in the slot. Zach Ertz played well ahead of Trey McBride. None of the Cardinals’ pass catchers topped 33 yards against Washington.

Score Prediction: Giants 24, Cardinals 14

 

 

N.Y. Jets @ Dallas

Team Totals: Cowboys 24.5, Jets 15

With the exceptions of Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson, Jets skill-position players look like full-on fades, especially on the road against an elite Cowboys defense that shut out the Giants last Sunday night. … Even while Hall didn’t look close to 100% in last Monday night’s win over Buffalo, he was extremely productive with 147 total yards on 11 touches. And Dalvin Cook stunk. The Cowboys stacked up Saquon Barkley for 63 yards on 15 touches last Sunday night, so this is no pushover matchup. Hall remains a high-risk flex option in a Jets offense whose post-Aaron Rodgers efficiency is certain to plummet. Cook is unplayable here. … Wilson’s miraculous juggling touchdown catch against the Bills salvaged his fantasy output, but he has to be downgraded from a WR1 candidate to WR2/3 territory based on Gang Green’s offensive downgrade. No Giants pass catcher topped 36 receiving yards against the Cowboys’ defense in Week 1.

I’m more worried about Dak Prescott than Tony Pollard in this spot; the Cowboys should control this game, feed Pollard, and avoid testing Gang Green’s lights-out backend. Pollard is an excellent touchdown bet after handling a league-high six carries inside the opposing 10-yard line in Week 1, even while losing blowout-time snaps to Rico Dowdle and Deuce Vaughn. The Jets have some characteristics of becoming a run-funnel defense. … The Jets held quarterbacks to the league’s fifth-fewest fantasy points last season, then contained Josh Allen for Week 1’s QB20 result, sacking him five times and forcing Allen into four turnovers. I’m looking into quarterback streamers rather than plugging in Prescott as a starter this week.

UPDATE: Brandin Cooks emerged from Week 1’s victory with an MCL sprain and sounds at legitimate risk of missing Week 2. Especially with Zach Wilson under center on the other side, the Cowboys are incentivized to rest Cooks so early in the season. If Cooks does miss, Michael Gallup and to a lesser extent Jake Ferguson would deserve projection upgrades. Second-year WR Jalen Tolbert made some waves in camp.

Dak’s Week 1 target distribution: Jake Ferguson 7; CeeDee Lamb and Brandin Cooks 4; Pollard and KaVontae Turpin 3; Michael Gallup 2; Peyton Hendershot 1. … Week 1’s 40-0 blowout of the Giants was so lopsided that I’m hesitant to put any stock in the box score, on either side. … When the game was somewhat in doubt, Ferguson operated as Dallas’ lead tight end, although Hendershot wasn’t far behind, and second-round rookie Luke Schoonmaker was a distant No. 3. … Stefon Diggs did tag the Jets for 10/102/1 receiving last Monday night, so there are avenues to production for enemy wideouts. Lamb has the best odds as a power-slot guy; shutdown CBs Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed spend most of their time outside.

Score Prediction: Cowboys 23, Jets 13

 

 

Washington @ Denver

Team Totals: Broncos 21, Commanders 17.5

Commanders-Broncos is Week 2’s lowest-totaled game, rendering it a contest to fade in fantasy lineup decisions. … Sam Howell banked Week 1’s overall QB11 result, largely due to a 6-yard rushing TD in the fourth quarter against Arizona. I’d still rather bet on Denver’s D/ST here; Howell absorbed six sacks and committed two turnovers on Opening Day. It is notable, though, that the Broncos blitzed at one of the league’s highest Week 1 rates (41%) yet managed the NFL’s lowest pressure rate in their loss to the Raiders. … Perhaps Antonio Gibson’s lost fumble caused it, but Brian Robinson operated as Washington’s clear-cut Week 1 lead back, out-touching Gibson 20 to four and out-snapping him 43 to 25. Denver played lights-out run defense in last week’s loss, holding Raiders RBs to a combined 20/50/0 (2.5 YPC) rushing line. Robinson is a TD-or-bust flex option. Gibson is unplayable.

Howell’s Week 1 target distribution: Logan Thomas 8; Jahan Dotson 7; Curtis Samuel 5; Terry McLaurin 4; Robinson and Cole Turner 2; Gibson 1. … Thomas logged 58 Opening Day snaps, dominating playing time over fellow TEs John Bates (26) and Turner (10). The Broncos allowed just one Week 1 reception to Raiders tight ends. … With Patrick Surtain on the opposite side, enemy No. 2 wideouts look set to cook against second-year fourth-round CB Damarri Mathis. Jakobi Meyers (9/81/2) was that guy last week, while Davante Adams (6/66/0) stayed quiet. I like McLaurin to get the Week 2 Surtain treatment and Dotson to eat here. … Samuel operated as Washington’s No. 3 receiver behind McLaurin and Dotson in Week 1, collecting five targets and a rushing attempt. I wound up drafting a ton of Samuel in best ball leagues, yet Samuel’s gadget role isn’t conducive to trustworthiness in DFS or season-long competitions.

The Broncos deployed Russell Wilson as a game manager in Week 1’s loss to the Raiders; Sean Payton called every pass play close to the vest, and Wilson averaged a lowly 5.2 yards per attempt despite completing nearly 80% of his throws. Wilson ran once for one yard and has exceeded 30 rushing yards just once over his last 24 NFL appearances. … Javonte Williams out-touched Samaje Perine 17 to 12 on Opening Day, yet each logged a 45% snap rate. Williams handled the majority of early-down action, while Perine was featured in passing situations. Both are mere flex options versus Washington’s loaded defensive front, which limited Cardinals RBs to a combined Week 1 rushing line of 19/58/0 (3.05 YPC).

Wilson’s Week 1 target distribution: Williams 6; Courtland Sutton and Adam Trautman 5; Perine 4; Brandon Johnson 3; Greg Dulcich, Marvin Mims, and Lil’Jordan Humphrey 2. … Sutton dominated the Broncos’ Week 1 Air Yards share (34%) but looks like a potential sell high after banking 13.2 PPR points with Jerry Jeudy (hamstring) close to returning. No Cardinals pass catcher exceeded 33 yards against Washington in Week 1. … Dulcich suffered a multi-week injury to the same hamstring that bothered him repeatedly last season. He can be dropped in almost all non-dynasty leagues. … Trautman appeared on 72% of Denver’s Opening Day offensive snaps, parlaying five targets into 5/34/0 receiving against Las Vegas. I expect him to be closer to a 100% snap player sans Dulcich but am still valuing Trautman as a pedestrian TE2. … Second-year UDFA Johnson and Payton pal Humphrey — a former Saint — each played ahead of Mims in Week 1. That should flip sometime soon, but none of them can be relied on for now.

Score Prediction: Broncos 20, Commanders 17

 

 

Miami @ New England

Team Totals: Dolphins 24.5, Patriots 22.5

Coming off Week 1’s overall QB1 score, Tua Tagovailoa faces a Patriots defense that held Jalen Hurts to Opening Day’s QB19 result. In his lone 2022 date with New England, Tua managed a 22-of-33 (69.7%) completion rate for 270 yards and one score in Miami’s 20-7 victory. Tagovailoa is the delivery man in HC Mike McDaniel’s masterclass scheme, which optimizes for success. This game’s 47-point total is fourth highest of Week 2. … With Jeff Wilson (abdomen) on I.R. and De’Von Achane healthy scratched, Raheem Mostert owned Miami’s Week 1 backfield, out-snapping Salvon Ahmed 73% to 28%, out-carrying him 10 to three, and running 32 routes to Ahmed’s 13. Mostert was far from dominant against the Chargers but converted a goal-line carry for a TD and remains the lead back in a high-scoring offense.

Tua’s Week 1 target distribution: Tyreek Hill 15; Durham Smythe 7; Jaylen Waddle, River Cracraft, and Braxton Berrios 5; Ahmed 3; Mostert and Alec Ingold 2. … Week 1’s top FF scorer with an 11/215/2 stat line, Hill paced the NFL in Opening Day Air Yards (227). McDaniel game-planned to create for Hill free releases off the line of scrimmage by motioning Tyreek into an H-back/wingback position that defeated all aspects of the Chargers’ coverage. … Hill was the focal point of McDaniel’s Week 1 approach, but Waddle’s time will come. Waddle ran just two fewer Opening Day routes than Hill and produced a robust 2.36 yards per route run. Waddle banked 2022 receiving lines of 4/69/1 and 3/52/0 against the Patriots. … Berrios ran 29 Week 1 routes compared to Cracraft’s 15. They’re only playable on single-game DFS slates. … Smythe played 100% of the Dolphins’ Week 1 offensive snaps and ran a team-high 42 pass routes, splitting time in-line (43%) and flexed into the slot (40%). That snap share and route participation place Smythe in the TE1 mix, although he draws an imposing Week 2 date with a stingy Patriots defense that goose-egged Dallas Goedert on a single Week 1 target. Smythe is TD or bust.

As the Patriots dug themselves a quick 16-0 hole in last week’s loss to the Eagles, Mac Jones dropped back to pass 56 times and led all Week 1 quarterbacks in completions (34) and attempts (54) — both career highs. Under new OC Bill O’Brien, the Pats ranked second in situation-neutral pace in Week 1 and called a league-high 78 offensive plays. Especially with LT Trent Brown (concussion) at risk of missing, Jones still belongs off the QB1 map. … New England’s OL looks in shambles. Starting OGs Cole Strange (knee) and Mike Onwenu (ankle) each missed Week 1. Miami’s D/ST is fully playable here. … After Austin Ekeler and Josh Kelley combined for 32/208/2 rushing (6.5 YPC) versus Miami in Week 1, this looks like a potential blow-up spot for Rhamondre Stevenson. … Ezekiel Elliott’s seven Week 1 targets were an anomaly due to Jones’ spiked number of pass attempts. Zeke’s potential goal-line role keeps him on the radar for one-game DFS tournament slates, yet Elliott is a lowly RB4 in season-long leagues.

Jones’ Week 1 target distribution with DeVante Parker (knee) inactive: Kendrick Bourne 11; JuJu Smith-Schuster, Demario Douglas, and Elliott 7; Hunter Henry and Stevenson 6; Kayshon Boutte 4; Mike Gesicki and Ty Montgomery 3. … The main beneficiary of Parker’s somewhat surprise inactivity, Bourne wound up running 54 routes on Jones’ 56 dropbacks en route to two red-zone scores. Bourne is an easy fade on Week 2 waiver wires and could become a non-factor as soon as Parker returns. … His knees potentially shot, Smith-Schuster looked unfit to play in Week 1’s loss to Philly, producing an empty 4/33/0 stat line. He’s droppable in 12-team season-long leagues. … Sixth-round rookie Douglas operated as New England’s main slot receiver against the Eagles, netting a 4/40/0 effort. … Should Parker again sit, rookie Boutte would warrant single-game DFS tournament consideration. … After a stellar camp/preseason, Henry banked Week 1’s overall TE1 score on 5/56/1 receiving against the Eagles. Henry out-snapped Gesicki 79% to 41% on Opening Day and is obviously the Pats’ main tight end.

Score Prediction: Dolphins 24, Patriots 20

 

 

New Orleans @ Carolina

Team Totals: Saints 21.5, Panthers 17.5

This game’s 40-point total is fifth lowest of Week 2, rendering Saints-Panthers a game to shy away from in fantasy lineup decisions. … Derek Carr averaged an elite 9.2 yards per pass attempt in his New Orleans debut, but the game featured eight field goals and only one touchdown. Carr did exceed 300 passing yards but has done so just five times over his last 26 starts. Destroyed by the Titans in Week 1, Saints LT Trevor Penning now faces Panthers EDGE Brian Burns, who feasted on Desmond Ridder last week, accruing 1.5 sacks and three pressures on Ridder’s 22 dropbacks. You could do worse than streaming Carolina’s D/ST here. Lacking rushing value, Carr is always a low-ceiling QB2. … Without Alvin Kamara (suspension) and Kendre Miller (hamstring), Jamaal Williams logged 75% of New Orleans’ Week 1 offensive snaps, handling 18 of 19 backfield carries and both running back targets. I’m guessing we won’t see Miller until Week 3. After running in place against Tennessee’s impenetrable defensive front, Williams’ Week 2 matchup is far more favorable; Carolina hemorrhaged 25/131/2 rushing to Falcons RBs last week, plus 9/46/1 receiving. Williams is an exciting RB2 starter, especially on one-game DFS slates.

Carr’s Week 1 targets: Chris Olave 10; Michael Thomas 8; Rashid Shaheed 6; Juwan Johnson 5; Williams 2; Taysom Hill and Keith Kirkwood 1. … OC Pete Carmichael is manufacturing touches for Olave, who banked 8/112/0 receiving as Week 1’s overall WR14. After manning the slot just 34% of the time as a rookie, Olave ran over 42% of his routes inside against Tennessee. Only Tyreek Hill (6.1), Brandon Aiyuk (4.3), and teammate Shaheed (3.6) averaged more yards per route run than Olave’s 3.5. His matchup gets a boost with Panthers top CB Jaycee Horn (hamstring) gone to I.R. … Thomas ran a team-high 35 routes in Week 1’s win, seeing a team-high three red-zone targets and the Saints’ only two looks inside the opposing 10-yard line. I love Thomas as a single-game DFS play. … Speedster Shaheed led the Saints in Week 1 aDOT (16.5 yards) and scored the game’s lone touchdown from 19 yards out. He played 54% of the team’s offensive snaps, operating as New Orleans’ clear No. 3 wideout behind Olave and Thomas. … Johnson (75%) out-snapped both Foster Moreau (49%) and Jimmy Graham (14%) and was the only member of the trio to draw a target. … Hill rushed three times for four yards and failed to catch his lone target on 14% of the snaps. He’s a single-game DFS tournament dart and nothing more at the Panthers.

Carolina’s team total of 17.5 points is Week 2’s fourth lowest. No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young finished as Week 1’s fantasy QB23, nevertheless showing poise amid a supporting cast that is clearly deficient. Young is a poor two-quarterback-league bet against the Saints, who held Ryan Tannehill to last week’s QB30 result. … Miles Sanders doubled up Chuba Hubbard in Week 1 carries (18 to nine) and out-targeted him six to two. Yet Sanders lost a fumble, and ball security has been a longstanding issue for him. Hubbard played on all eight third downs. Carolina’s offensive line is now missing both starting guards with LG Brady Christensen (bicep) out for the year and RG Austin Corbett (knee) on PUP. Sanders is an unexciting RB2.

Young’s Week 1 target distribution: Hayden Hurst 7; Sanders and Terrace Marshall 6; Jonathan Mingo 5; Hubbard, Adam Thielen, and Laviska Shenault 2; Giovanni Ricci 1. … D.J. Chark (hamstring) was inactive for the opener but has a chance to play Monday night after returning to practice on a limited basis this week. … Slot man Thielen operated inside for over 75% of his Week 1 routes but produced an empty 2/12/0 box score with an anemic 4.5-yard aDOT. The 33-year-old looked out of gas in Minnesota last season. … Marshall and Mingo were first and second on the team in Week 1 routes and Air Yards but mostly ran sprints down the sidelines. They’re single-game DFS tournament darts but obviously can’t be trusted in season-long lineups. I did find it notable that Marshall dominated Carolina’s Week 1 Air Yards share (47%). … Hurst ran 27 routes on 42 Young dropbacks and went 5/41/1 as Week 1’s overall TE2. Yet Hurst appeared on just 53% of the Panthers’ offensive snaps and has just six TDs over his last 27 games.

Score Prediction: Saints 24, Panthers 16

 

 

Cleveland @ Pittsburgh

Team Totals: Browns 21, Steelers 18.5

Totaled below 40 points, Browns-Steelers is a game to fade in most fantasy lineup decisions. … In rain-soaked conditions versus Cincinnati, Deshaun Watson did little to quiet speculation in Week 1 that he’s no longer the quarterback he was in Houston after so much time away. Watson’s dual-threat ability still elevated him to Week 1’s overall QB5 finish on the back of 5/45/1 rushing. After the 49ers did whatever they wanted to the Steelers’ defense on Opening Day, I’m sticking with Watson as a locked-and-loaded QB1 starter. … Nick Chubb (49%) only narrowly out-snapped Jerome Ford (41%) in last Sunday’s win over the Bengals, yet Chubb pasted Cincinnati for his 29th career 100-yard rushing game. For Week 2, Chubb’s matchup got a colossal boost when the Steelers placed six-time Pro Bowl DT Cam Heyward (groin) on I.R. The 49ers all-out dominated on interior run plays after Heyward’s Opening Day exit.

Watson’s Week 1 targets: Amari Cooper and Elijah Moore 7; Chubb 4; David Njoku 3; Donovan Peoples-Jones, Marquise Goodwin, and Harrison Bryant 2; David Bell and Jordan Akins 1. … Cooper projects to see a lot of 33-year-old Patrick Peterson after PatPete got dog walked by Brandon Aiyuk in Week 1. Even after his slow opener, Cooper is a rock-solid WR2 play at Pittsburgh. … Moore paced the Browns with 43 receiving yards against the Bengals, running 64% of his routes from the slot. Moore is a WR3/flex option here. … Deep threat Peoples-Jones drew a team-high 15.5-yard aDOT in Week 1 but caught just one pass. I want to see improvement from Watson before backing DPJ. … Njoku logged a 73% Week 1 snap rate but was a passing-game non-factor in a game Cleveland dominated from start to finish. Nothing about Njoku’s Week 2 matchup stands out, yet he remains TE1 playable at Pittsburgh.

Manhandled by the 49ers last Sunday, the Steelers now draw a ferocious Browns pass rush featuring Myles Garrett and Za’Darius Smith that hit Joe Burrow 10 times on 33 dropbacks in Week 1. Only six QBs had worse Opening Day passer ratings than Kenny Pickett’s 68.4 mark, and Pickett is now missing safety blanket Diontae Johnson (hamstring) for up to a month. Cleveland’s D/ST is a recommended play. … Buried on the scoreboard early in Week 1, neither Najee Harris nor Jaylen Warren had a chance to get going. The distribution was very Melvin Gordon-Austin Ekelerish with Harris logging a 52% snap rate to Warren’s 40% and only six more pass routes than Warren. This continues to shake out as a 60-40 split. In Week 1, Cleveland’s defense held Bengals backs to 91 scoreless yards on 21 combined touches.

Pickett’s targets after Johnson’s Week 1 injury: Warren, Allen Robinson, and Calvin Austin 5; Connor Heyward 4; George Pickens 3; Harris 2; Pat Freiermuth and Anthony McFarland 1. … A-Rob ran a route on 46 of 52 Pickett dropbacks (88%), spending 83% of his snaps in the slot. Robinson’s interior role sets him up for layup catches and WR3/flex playability versus Cleveland. … Pickens ran a team-high 48 Week 1 routes. Yet Pickens’ patterns were almost all of the clear-out variety, and Austin stepped in as the direct replacement for Johnson. Pickens’ low-percentage role appears unlikely to change. Austin is entirely startable versus Cleveland. … Freiermuth exited Week 1 with a chest injury after turning his only catch into a 3-yard TD. Heyward and rookie Darnell Washington split time with Freiermuth sidelined. Freiermuth’s status for Week 2 is to be determined.

Score Prediction: Browns 23, Steelers 17