Fresh off his first 1,000-yard rushing season, D’Andre Swift will sign a three-year, $24 million deal with the Bears in free agency. The 25-year-old finally got his chance to be a primary early-down rusher in 2023, and this contract demonstrates the success he had in that role with Philadelphia. Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson performed respectably last season, but Chicago is evidently committed to giving likely No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams the weapons he needs to succeed. Let’s dig into what this signing means for Swift and the rest of the Bears’ offense.
D’ANDRE SWIFT
Old ranking: 98th overall on Underdog
New ranking: 71st overall
- Swift struggled with injuries during his first three seasons in the league and never exceeded 151 carries or 617 rushing yards, primarily succeeding as a receiver (at least 46 receptions in all three years). He still managed a 9.4% target share with Philadelphia in 2023, but Kenneth Gainwell was the preferred option in clear passing situations and the 2-minute drill, while Swift had a stranglehold on early-down work. He’s been successful in both roles, and he’ll likely take on a bigger receiving role with the Bears vs. what he had with the Eagles while also operating as the primary back on base downs.
- Herbert was one of the better runners in the league over the past two years, averaging at least 4.6 yards per carry and 0.29 Rush Yards Over Expectation per carry (including a league-best 1.29 mark in 2022) in both seasons. Meanwhile, Swift has pretty consistently fared poorly in rushing efficiency metrics.
More money than I thought D'Andre Swift would command. Given ultra-deep free agent RB class and depressed RB value.
Last season Swift was:
* 37th out of 49 in Rush Yards Over Expectation, worse than Alexander Mattison & Josh Kelley
* 46th among 59 qualifying RBs in PFF grades… https://t.co/V6ACqdH5gl— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) March 11, 2024
- Three years and $24 million is a serious investment for a running back. Herbert probably won’t go away completely, but Swift is the favorite to lead the team in carries and should have a monopoly on passing-down work.
- We’ll have to watch the battle for the goal-line role in training camp. D’Onta Foreman out-carried Herbert 6-1 inside the 5-yard line in 2023, but Swift doesn’t exactly fit the mold of an elite short-yardage back. If Swift wins the GL battle, his high-value touch volume could be among the best in the NFL.
- The Bears should resemble a typical NFL offense with Williams under center after two years of being extremely run-heavy with Fields at the helm. Swift needs a strong pass-catching year to realize his ceiling.
OTHER BEARS RBS
- This might be a death blow for Roschon Johnson. The Texas product played decently as a rookie, but he’s a Day 3 pick and the team immediately went out and invested $24 million in one of the premier free-agent running backs available. Johnson’s pass-blocking ability was his calling card coming out of school and he graded out alright in that area in Year 1, but Swift is a superior pass catcher with significant capital invested into him. Johnson needs multiple injuries to be a fantasy starter.
- Herbert should have a standalone role and is just one injury away from potentially 15+ carries per game, but Johnson might take over the passing-down role if Swift misses time. There aren’t many truly elite handcuffs left in the league, and Herbert likely falls into the group of guys who would be usable if the RB ahead of them misses time but aren’t automatically an RB1 without their backfield mate. He’s still a fine dart in the double-digit rounds, especially if we get word he’ll play near the goal line.
