Just hours after Ezekiel Elliott signed with the Patriots, another RB domino fell when Dalvin Cook signed with the Jets on a one-year, $8.6 million deal with most of the money guaranteed. Cook was widely regarded as the premier free-agent running back this offseason once the Vikings parted ways with him in the spring, and he’ll team up with Breece Hall in New York to form one of the most-feared RB duos in the league. Hall is still making his way back from the ACL tear he suffered in Week 7 of his rookie campaign, so Cook will likely be the Jets’ RB1 in Week 1. Once Hall is healthy, the two will split touches. Let’s get into how we’re projecting this backfield with Cook in the picture.
DALVIN COOK
Old projection: N/A
New projection: 171.7 carries for 738.4 yards and 5.0 TDs. 29.4 catches on 39.3 targets for 226.9 yards and 1.0 TDs.
- An $8.6 million deal with the majority guaranteed is a lot of money for a running back in this day and age. That level of investment signals that they have big plans for Cook, even once Hall is healthy. With that being said, Hall is also likely the significantly better player at this stage of their respective careers, so he could easily marginalize Cook from a fantasy standpoint if he gets back to full health and starts taking the high-value touches. Still, this is real money and there were rumors that Aaron Rodgers wanted Cook. Those two factors could just guarantee that Cook has a big role all year.
- Cook should be the clear RB1 early in the year as New York eases Hall back in and ensures he’s 100% before they start entrusting him with a full workload. He’s a fantasy starter early in the year as the lead back in a Rodgers offense. He should see double-digit touches even once Hall is healthy just because the Jets likely don’t want him absorbing a massive workload at such a young age coming off a big injury. We are projecting an even split in carries for the season with Hall having the higher ceiling (based on talent) and target share.
BREECE HALL
Old projection: 198.1 carries for 852.0 yards and 5.9 TDs. 40.0 catches on 53.3 targets for 361.8 yards and 1.8 TDs.
New projection: 171.7 carries for 755.6 yards and 5.2 TDs. 37.9 catches on 50.5 targets for 342.8 yards and 1.7 TDs.
- This likely means the Jets want to bring Hall back slowly in his ACL recovery, so fantasy players shouldn’t expect much from the Iowa State product during the first few weeks of the season. All indications from the Jets have been that they expect him to play in Week 1, but that doesn’t mean they actually will give him a fantasy-viable role. They are going to bring him along slowly, which makes sense considering he’s just 22 years old and a big part of the Jets’ future plans. Hall owners should not panic early in the year if Cook looks like the RB1; in fact, it could be a good buy-low opportunity if they really take it slow in September.
- Still, Hall showed as a rookie — 5.8 yards per carry, immense splash-play upside, and a 12.0% target share despite splitting snaps with Michael Carter — that he’s one of the best RBs in the league, so betting on talent is still reasonable here despite the Cook addition. Hall is likely to be at his best near the end of the year, the most important time for fantasy, so he can still return elite value as a committee back. Plus, Cook hasn’t exactly been a picture of perfect health over the past few seasons, so there are multiple paths to a late-season workhorse role.
- Your evaluation of Hall depends on what you think of him as a talent and how much you think Cook has left in the tank. We think Breece is the better back and will be the RB1 in the latter half, but there’s some ambiguity there. It’s also difficult to gauge just how committed the Jets are to involving Cook even if Hall proves he’s superior. The good news for Hall truthers is that he’s a high-level pass catcher at the RB position and should command high-value touches, even if Cook soaks up carries between the 20s.
OTHER PLAYERS
- The Jets now have three young running backs vying for one or two spots: Carter, Zonovan Knight, and Israel Abanikanda. Abanikanda, a fifth-round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, plays special teams and might have the upper hand on his veteran competition as a result. If he makes it, that would leave Carter and Knight competing for (maybe) one spot. That will be a battle to watch for the rest of camp, but it’s really difficult to draft either for fantasy purposes knowing one of them may not even have a roster spot. Abanikanda is an intriguing prospect, but he’s unlikely to contribute this year with two highly regarded RBs ahead of him, so he’s completely off the fantasy radar too.
- This is another threat gone for the Dolphins’ trio of backs (De’Von Achane, Raheem Mostert, and Jeff Wilson). Cook had been heavily tied to them given his ties to southern Florida and the lack of an elite back on the Miami roster.
