Fantasy Fallout: Davante Adams Is a Raider

Aaron Rodgers is back in Green Bay. The reigning MVP signed a $150 million contract to keep him with the Packers for the next three years.

Most NFL fans assumed Davante Adams would join him. After all, Rodgers and Adams have been the best QB-WR duo in the league for the past four seasons.

But you know what they say about assumptions. And we saw why on Thursday afternoon when the Packers dealt Adams to Las Vegas for the Raiders’ first two picks in the 2022 NFL Draft. Adams will team up with his college quarterback Derek Carr, and the former Fresno State Bulldogs will hope to keep up with the other three offenses in the AFC West. Let’s take a look at how ETR’s projections changed as a result of this trade.

DAVANTE ADAMS

Old projection: 118.7 catches on 170.1 targets for 1,476.0 yards and 11.6 touchdowns. WR1 on Underdog.

New projection: 101.6 catches on 145.9 targets for 1,259.2 yards and 9.6 touchdowns. WR2 on Underdog.

• Adams led the Packers last year with a 30.8% target share. The next-closest player was Marquez Valdes-Scantling at 14.1%. By contrast, the Raiders had two players with a target share of at least 20% when healthy last season: Darren Waller (22.3%) and Hunter Renfrow (20.4%). We expect Adams to see fewer targets in Las Vegas as a result — plus there’s likely something to be said about Adams’ chemistry with Aaron Rodgers — but he’s still the WR2 in our rankings. Instead of challenging Cooper Kupp for the WR1 crown, Adams is now more in the mix with Justin Jefferson and Tyreek Hill in the second tier of wideouts. He’s still a first-round pick.

OTHER PACKERS PLAYERS

• The Packers might actually have to pick a wide receiver! Allen Lazard is currently Green Bay’s WR1, although they are trying to re-sign Valdes-Scantling (not that he moves the needle very much). The Pack almost have to bolster their receiving corps in the draft, so we refrained from bumping Lazard and Valdes-Scantling too much for the time being.
• Jared Smola (of Draft Sharks) pointed out how incredible Aaron Jones‘ receiving volume has been with Adams out in the past. Again, they’re going to upgrade their wide receivers room from where it currently stands, but Jones could be an even larger part of the aerial attack in 2022. The Packers have a two-headed monster at running back, so they could get creative with Jones while using Dillon in his usual grinder role.

• Rodgers dropped from QB8 to QB10 due to decreased efficiency without Adams.

DARREN WALLER

Old projection: 92.8 catches on 136.2 targets for 1,138.9 yards and 6.7 touchdowns. TE3 on Underdog.

New projection: 79.6 catches on 116.7 targets for 976.5 yards and 5.7 touchdowns. TE4 on Underdog.

• Waller’s target share predictably falls now that the best receiver in football is competing with him for targets. He remains one of the elite tight ends in fantasy football, and perhaps Adams’ arrival will bolster the offense on the whole and create more scoring opportunities. Still, Adams and his mammoth target share knock Waller from TE3 to TE4 in our rankings.

HUNTER RENFROW

Old projection: 86.2 catches on 118.4 targets for 959.3 yards and 5.9 touchdowns. WR26 on Underdog.

New projection: 76.5 catches on 105.1 targets for 851.3 yards and 5.2 touchdowns. WR35 on Underdog.

• Like Waller, Renfrow’s target share falls with Adams in town. The dependable slot man is still in the WR3 mix on Underdog, and he ranks even higher in full-PPR formats.

OTHER RAIDERS PLAYERS

• There’s now another roadblock between Bryan Edwards and the breakout his truthers have been hoping for. Edwards mustered just a 9.9% target share last season despite playing more than three-quarters of snaps. The Raiders are lacking depth at receiver beyond Adams and Renfrow, but Edwards has no path to fantasy relevancy barring injury.
• Carr rose two spots from QB17 to QB15. The 30-year-old quietly played well last season and now has three very strong pass catchers in Adams, Waller, and Renfrow.