The Steelers shook up the fantasy football landscape on Wednesday morning when they traded George Pickens to Dallas for a third-round pick and other draft compensation. Pickens will now serve as Dak Prescott‘s WR2 behind CeeDee Lamb, while DK Metcalf has the WR1 role to himself in Pittsburgh. Let’s break this trade down from a fantasy standpoint.
GEORGE PICKENS
- Pickens finds himself as the clear WR2 in Dallas rather than splitting WR1 duties with Metcalf, but he has pretty fascinating fantasy upside even with increased target competition. The Steelers predictably skewed massively run-heavy with Arthur Smith calling the shots last year (-5.6% Pass Rate Over Expectation), whereas DAL was much more neutral (-0.8% PROE with Dak Prescott at QB). Brian Schottenheimer is regarded as a run-first coach because of his time in Seattle, but joked at his opening press conference that he got in trouble for “letting Russ cook” too much, and the Cowboys hired Ken Dorsey this offseason, too (who got fired as the Bills’ OC for throwing too often). This could quietly be a pass-first unit in 2025, and they will certainly be more pass-inclined than PIT.
- Competing with Lamb and Jake Ferguson for targets is certainly harder work than Metcalf and Pat Freiermuth, but that should be at least somewhat offset by the increased team passing volume, and Pickens certainly has a higher ceiling in DAL via contingent upside (if Lamb gets hurt). We’ve seen Pickens’ ceiling in Pittsburgh — it’s fine but nothing game-breaking, and he would’ve had more target competition in 2025 than he had over the previous two years. In Dallas, he gets a change of scenery — likely a good thing given his off-field inconsistencies with the Steelers — and an upgraded team environment. His base target share expectation is certainly lower, but this could end up being a really nice spot for him fantasy-wise. Stylistically, Pickens can now operate as a lower-volume vertical specialist rather than having to carry a passing offense like he often did in Pittsburgh. He’s likely better suited in that role, though his best-case fantasy outcome is now reliant on contingent upside.
- We have Pickens’ target share now projected multiple percentage points lower, but his overall ranking in Underdog best ball leagues got slightly better.
OTHER COWBOYS WEAPONS
- This most directly affects Jalen Tolbert and KaVontae Turpin, who previously had clear paths to potentially starting roles in an above-average passing offense and now will duke it out for depth snaps. We had some target share unallocated in our projections assuming Dallas would add someone else eventually, but Pickens is on the higher end of possible acquisitions, so Tolbert and Turpin both dropped pretty dramatically.
- Lamb is the unquestioned alpha in this offense with or without Pickens, but Pickens does present more target competition than he had previously, so we did dock him very slightly. Still, he’s a high-end WR1 and deserves to go in the middle of the first round of fantasy drafts.
- Jake Ferguson remains in an every-down role as the clear TE1 for Dallas, but, like Lamb, he now has to deal with increased target competition (and, unlike Lamb, he’s not an all-world talent, so this affects him more), so we docked his target share as well.
- This is also a meaningful bump for Dak Prescott, who now has a second highly explosive WR to play with.
DK METCALF
- Metcalf is under contract with Pittsburgh for the next five years, and he’s owed $150 million. That’s big-time WR1 money, and PIT has now made another move indicating they view him as their clear alpha. Metcalf posted a 25% target share in 2022 but was at just 20.6% last year and 21.9% in 2023 — he will have every chance to get back to that 2022 number given the lack of target competition in PIT.
- With that being said, this is still an Arthur Smith run-centric offense, so his raw target ceiling may not be massive. Plus, the Steelers’ QB position is still a huge question mark. Aaron Rodgers hasn’t signed yet and reportedly has no timetable for making a decision, so Mason Rudolph is currently atop the depth chart. Even if Rodgers signs, he wasn’t a good NFL QB last year and is now 41 years old, so it’ll be hard to feel good about Metcalf’s QB play regardless.
- In short, Metcalf could be a target hog in 2025 but has offensive environment and QB concerns. We have him as a third-round pick in fantasy now.
OTHER STEELERS PLAYERS
- There’s still time for PIT to add a WR, but we boosted Calvin Austin III, Roman Wilson, and Pat Freiermuth‘s target shares with Pickens gone. Freiermuth has posted fantasy-relevant target shares before and is now the second option in this passing game, while Steelers GM Omar Khan shouted out both Austin and Wilson in his press conference when the Steelers initially acquired Metcalf.
