Brian Thomas was once projected as a mid-teens pick, but it became evident late that he was going to be available in the 20s. That allowed Jacksonville to trade back and still draft the speedy LSU WR, who will join Christian Kirk, Gabe Davis, and Zay Jones in the Jags’ WR group (plus Evan Engram at TE).
BRIAN THOMAS JR.
Projection: 57.4 catches on 95.7 targets for 804.0 yards and 4.8 TDs
- Thomas was a late bloomer, going from a 16% Dominator Rating as a sophomore to 33% last year, plus he had to compete with Malik Nabers for targets at LSU. Still, his wildly productive 2023 campaign and big-play ability – he averaged 17.3 yards per catch and led the country with 17 receiving TDs – propelled him to Day 1 draft capital. He’s big and athletic and boasts the kind of deep-threat ability that NFL teams are always looking for. He’s a tier below Marvin Harrison Jr., Nabers, and Rome Odunze in this class, but he’s still a strong WR prospect who can contribute at the next level immediately.
- Thomas seems somewhat repetitive with Davis since both are primarily big-play threats, but Thomas has Round 1 draft capital and can grow into something more than a big-play/red-zone guy as he gets older.
- Thomas may be more of a splash-play threat than a true target-earner, particularly as a rookie. He may take some time to become a weekly fantasy option since he’ll be at best third in projected target share in Week 1, but the upside down the stretch is fascinating. We’re projecting Thomas as the WR2 in Jacksonville, but his target share right now is closer to Davis than Kirk/Engram. However, we do have him with a pretty big upside case.
OTHER JAGUARS RECEIVERS
- Christian Kirk and Evan Engram should be the top-two in targets here, although Thomas could certainly challenge the status quo if he has the talent. After those two, Thomas might be next in line, although Davis and Zay Jones are good enough that they won’t just be immediately discarded. We are projecting Jones as the clear WR4 in targets here with Davis and Thomas fairly close, but it’s an interesting projection because Thomas and Davis seem like they should fill similar roles at first glance. Kirk and Engram will undoubtedly mostly operate underneath, especially Engram, so space down the field will be wide open for Thomas/Davis to run.
- Jones has revitalized his career with Jacksonville, but he’ll now likely be WR4 on the depth chart. He’s an injury or two away from relevancy.
- Davis was inconsistent throughout his years in Buffalo, and that was the expectation with the Jags even before this pick. Now, he’ll have to fend off a talented rookie for the WR2 and primary field-stretcher role. We still have him for a respectable target share, but his ceiling takes a big hit with this selection.
