We have one answer to the Jonathan Taylor saga, but it’s not a final answer. The Colts were unable to find a team willing to meet their trade demands and will leave Taylor on the PUP list as a result, meaning he will miss the first four games of the season. The relationship between Taylor and the Colts appears severed beyond repair right now, so they could keep searching for a trade partner for Taylor to play for once he’s eligible in Week 5.
Regardless, the Colts currently have Zack Moss, Deon Jackson, and Evan Hull on the roster entering Week 1. Moss broke his arm a month ago and appears unlikely to be ready for the season opener, leaving Jackson and Hull as the two healthy backs on the roster. They also had Kareem Hunt in for a visit, and adding a vet is an option with the state of their RB room.
Let’s get into how we’re projecting these backs now that Taylor will officially miss four games.
JONATHAN TAYLOR
Old projection: 272.2 carries for 1,197.7 yards and 7.9 TDs. 29.9 catches on 40.6 targets for 222.9 yards and 0.8 TDs.
New projection: 200.8 carries for 883.7 yards and 5.8 TDs. 26.3 catches on 35.8 targets for 196.7 yards and 0.7 TDs.
- We’re assuming Taylor will miss four games, but we honestly have no idea what will happen come the end of September. The trade deadline is Oct. 31 and Taylor presumably wants to be moved by then, but that would require the Colts lowering their asking price from what it is now. If they can’t find a trade partner and Taylor returns to the Colts, his dissatisfaction with the team could affect his on-field performance (especially as it relates to whether he plays when he’s not absolutely 100% healthy). Indianapolis also looks like one of the worst offenses in the league and Taylor would be running behind a below-average offensive line. The best thing for JT’s fantasy value would be to get out of Indy, but that would require the Colts to lower their asking price. Indy’s decision to stick Taylor on PUP and force him out four games indicates they are willing to play hardball with their star running back.
- Taylor certainly has league-winning upside if he plays 13 games, especially if he’s on a better offense, but he’s likely the single riskiest pick in fantasy drafts right now. We have him as a sixth-rounder at the moment just ahead of guys like James Cook. The issue with Taylor is that we don’t know what will happen beyond these four games. The Colts opted to get nothing for him and waste four games, so it’s hard to be confident they will actually ship him off before Week 5. If Taylor was traded to the Dolphins tomorrow and still out four games, he’d jump multiple rounds in our rankings, but we don’t know what his outlook will be five weeks from now.
- Considering the RB archetypes you’re building around Taylor is paramount. If you take JT, someone like Jamaal Williams or Rashaad Penny — who are both likely to have fantasy-relevant early-season production but may not sustain it all year — become interesting complements.
- We’ll probably be adjusting Taylor’s projection slightly in the coming days, and we are curious where the market goes here. This is basically unprecedented territory.
OTHER COLTS RUNNING BACKS
- Moss probably won’t play in Week 1, but he’s the best early-down option currently on the Colts’ roster. With that being said, he would still cede passing downs to Hull and Jackson, plays on a bad offense, and may only have 2-3 weeks of relevancy if Taylor somehow returns. Furthermore, the Colts could still add someone like Hunt or Leonard Fournette and eviscerate his value in seconds.
- Jackson may lead the Colts in carries in Week 1 with Moss out, but he’s in a similar boat where Hull could take passing downs and he’s not talented enough to maintain any value if they sign someone. If you are truly hurting bad for RB production in Week 1, you could consider picking him up and seeing what happens between now and Week 1, but he has at most a few weeks of intrigue, and any value he has can go away in an instant.
- Hull, a fifth-round rookie from Northwestern, is the most interesting of the Colts’ backup RBs because of his youth and pass-catching ability. He could be worth drafting in very deep leagues to see if Indy gives him a sizable workload in Week 1 because his role could grow if he performs well. Still, there’s a pretty good chance the Colts sign a veteran RB, and, even if they don’t, Hull is likely behind both Moss and Jackson for rushing work in Weeks 1-4. In essence, we aren’t particularly interested in any of the backup RBs here in most leagues, but Hull is possibly worth a stab in super deep leagues.
