JuJu Smith-Schuster‘s career got off to the best start imaginable. He was the Robin to Antonio Brown‘s Batman, accumulating nearly 2,500 receiving yards across the first two years of his career. It looked like he was destined to be Pittsburgh’s WR1 for the next decade.
The past three years have been less enjoyable for Smith-Schuster believers. He has struggled to stay on the field — he played 12 games in 2019 and five last season — and mustered only 831 receiving yards (on 128 targets!) in his lone healthy season. Diontae Johnson has emerged as the alpha for the Steelers, with Chase Claypool operating as a dangerous albeit frustrating downfield threat.
For Smith-Schuster, it was time for a change. And who better to revitalize a wide receiver’s career than Patrick Mahomes? It was an ideal marriage between Smith-Schuster and the Chiefs, and the 25-year-old will head to Kansas City on a one-year, $10 million contract. Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce are far and away the top two options in the Chiefs’ aerial attack, but they had been lacking a dependable third option. Enter Smith-Schuster.
Let’s take a look at how ETR’s projections changed with Smith-Schuster on the Chiefs.
JUJU SMITH-SCHUSTER
Old projection: 65.1 catches on 97.4 targets for 650.1 yards and 4.4 touchdowns. WR49 on Underdog.
New projection: 66.0 catches on 97.9 targets for 746.0 yards and 5.0 touchdowns. WR39 on Underdog.
- It’s a perfect landing spot for Smith-Schuster. The Chiefs have two target hogs in Hill and Kelce, but Smith-Schuster can immediately fill in as a much-needed underneath threat for Mahomes.
- We have Smith-Schuster as the distant third option in the Kansas City passing attack, and an attainable 15.1% target share lands him at 97.9 targets. His projected target share with the Steelers was 16.0%, but the pass-happy nature of the Chiefs’ offense actually gives him 0.5 more targets compared to where he was previously.
- However, the major driver behind Smith-Schuster’s jump in the rankings is increased efficiency. The impact of upgrading from Mitch Trubisky to Mahomes can’t be overstated, and Smith-Schuster’s projected yards per target rises from 6.7 to 7.6 as a result. His projected touchdowns also rose by 0.6 since he’s now in arguably the most potent offense in the NFL.
OTHER CHIEFS PLAYERS
- We had already partially baked in the possibility of the Chiefs adding another receiver, so the changes weren’t overly drastic for any of the Chiefs’ other pass catchers. Mecole Hardman did lose a few percentage points of target share, as Smith-Schuster should immediately slot in as Mahomes’ WR2, but we didn’t have him very high to begin with. Other than that, we didn’t change much for Kansas City receivers.
STEELERS PLAYERS
- Smith-Schuster is gone. James Washington signed with the Cowboys on Friday. Even Ray-Ray McCloud is no longer in Pittsburgh. That leaves Anthony Miller as the WR3 among current Steelers wideouts. While they could roll into 2022 with just Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, and Miller, it seems more likely they are going to add another wideout. For that reason, we didn’t go crazy increasing Johnson and Claypool’s volume, although each saw a slight boost. The Steelers will probably pick up another receiver in free agency or the draft, although whoever they add likely won’t command as many targets as Smith-Schuster (which is why we did boost other Steelers pass catchers a little).
