Wildest offseason in NFL history? Eight teams are in line to have a different starting quarterback than last season — and it’s not even the end of March. On Monday, Matt Ryan became the fourth starting-caliber quarterback to be traded this spring, joining Russell Wilson, Carson Wentz (incoming jokes about “starting-caliber”), and Deshaun Watson.
After spending the first 14 years of his career in Atlanta, Ryan will head to the Hoosier State to lead the Colts, who moved on from the aforementioned Wentz after just one season. Indianapolis’ offense runs through Jonathan Taylor, but they need some semblance of a passing attack to compete with the Titans for the AFC South title. At 36 years old (37 in May), Ryan likely doesn’t have many seasons left in him, but he’s undoubtedly an upgrade over Wentz.
Meanwhile, the Falcons wasted little time looking for a new quarterback, as they signed Marcus Mariota to a two-year deal. The Heisman winner spent 2021 in Las Vegas backing up Derek Carr, but he’ll get another shot at a starting gig with a staff that’s already familiar with him from their time together in Tennessee.
Let’s take a look at how ETR’s projections changed as a result of the Ryan trade and Mariota signing.
MATT RYAN
Old projection: 360.7 completions on 572.9 attempts for 4,289.0 yards, 27.2 touchdowns, and 11.9 interceptions. QB22 on Underdog.
New projection: 336.2 completions on 520.3 attempts for 3,796.0 yards, 23.2 touchdowns, and 10.8 interceptions. QB24 on Underdog.
- Truth be told, we were likely too high on Ryan as a Falcon, especially from an efficiency standpoint. It would have been difficult to see him hitting his old projection given the lack of weapons on that offense outside of Kyle Pitts and Cordarrelle Patterson.
- Ryan’s projection as a Colt is more in line with what we expect from him efficiency-wise. He loses about 50 pass attempts going from a Falcons team that will likely be forced into negative game scripts to a Colts team that wants to give the ball to Taylor as much as possible. That, in combination with decreased efficiency (not because the Colts are a worse environment, but rather because our projection was too hot before), knocks Ryan from QB22 to QB24 in our rankings. This move makes a lot of sense from a real-life perspective because the Colts needed to upgrade from Wentz to compete for an AFC South crown, but Ryan’s fantasy outlook is uninspiring as an immobile quarterback in a run-heavy offense. He’s a floor play who should start all 17 games if healthy.
OTHER COLTS PLAYERS
- We had already baked in the likelihood of the Colts adding a quarterback, so we had their pass catchers projected for normal efficiency already (i.e. we didn’t project Colts receivers as if Jacob Eason and Sam Ehlinger were going to be throwing them the ball). With that being said, Ryan is better than Jimmy Garoppolo, Baker Mayfield, or whoever else they could have gotten, so all Indianapolis pass catchers saw a slight boost.
- We still think the Colts will be a run-first team despite the quarterback upgrade, so not much changed in terms of their play-calling expectation.
MARCUS MARIOTA
Old projection: 8.5 completions on 12.5 attempts for 97.1 yards, 0.6 touchdowns, and 0.3 interceptions. 11.8 carries for 67.0 yards and 0.6 touchdowns.
New projection: 337.2 completions on 539.3 attempts for 3,793.1 yards, 25.1 touchdowns, and 14.2 interceptions. 65.7 carries for 371.9 yards and 3.1 touchdowns. QB26 on Underdog.
- The Falcons have a top-10 pick in the 2022 NFL Draft and could take a quarterback, but it seems more likely they roll with Mariota next fall and try to find their franchise guy for 2023. The last time we saw Mariota as a starting quarterback, he was benched for Ryan Tannehill midway through the 2019 season and never got his job back. He spent last season backing up Derek Carr. Now, he’ll get a chance to revitalize his career in Atlanta, but it comes with an offense that’s almost completely devoid of pass-catching talent.
- Mariota’s one saving grace is his rushing ability. In his three seasons as a full-time starter, the Oregon product never had fewer than 60 rushing attempts (despite never playing more than 15 games). We have Mariota projected for 65.7 carries, and that kind of volume makes him somewhat appealing as a fringe top-24 quarterback, even though he’s likely going to have a tough time passing the ball.
- The Falcons’ offense isn’t going to be pretty, but that’s baked into our projections. We have Atlanta scoring the third-fewest points in the league and running the second-fewest plays.
- There’s some risk they draft a quarterback eighth overall, which would knock Mariota further down our rankings. For now, he’s our QB26, two spots below Ryan.
OTHER FALCONS PLAYERS
- Pitts fell from TE3 to TE4 in our rankings. Darren Waller passed him (barely), although both players have fallen down our overall rankings over the past week (Pitts due to Ryan leaving; Waller because of the Davante Adams trade). Pitts should be a target hog in Year 2 and he’s a near-lock to score more touchdowns — he only had one as a rookie — but it’s fair to worry about his efficiency given the overall state of the offense.
- As mentioned above, we have the Falcons projected to score the third-fewest points in the league and run the second-fewest plays. This looks like a complete rebuilding year in Atlanta.
- Team pass attempts fell from 34.4 per game with Ryan to 32.4 with Mariota. This is a combination of fewer total plays with a worse offense and a lower pass rate with a more mobile quarterback.
