In the most surprising move of free agency so far, Josh Jacobs has decided to sign with the Packers. Green Bay later released Aaron Jones, handing the backfield keys to their new signing. Meanwhile, A.J. Dillon is also almost certainly gone with the addition of Jacobs, and Zamir White has the rushing role all to himself at the moment in Las Vegas. Let’s break down this move from a fantasy point of view.
JOSH JACOBS
Old ranking: 62nd overall on Underdog
New ranking: 21st overall
- The Raiders look committed to a run-first attack under new coach Antonio Pierce. In Green Bay, it will be a more balanced attack, but Jacobs’ touches should be more efficient than what he would’ve gotten in Vegas. With Jones out of the picture and Dillon presumably gone too, Jacobs should get all the work he can handle. The Packers have historically relied on multiple backs, but they zoned in on Jones down the stretch in 2023, handing him 18+ touches in each of their final five games (note that Dillon was hurt for most of this stretch). The decision to sign Jacobs and promptly cut ties with Jones displays an intention to feed Jacobs.
- Jacobs will be one of the elite backs in fantasy as the workhorse back for one of the most exciting young offenses in football. Jordan Love was the most improved QB in the NFL from Week 1 to the end of last season, and the Packers’ offense should only get better with another offseason of development for Love and time for all of the wide receivers to get healthy. Jacobs will get 15+ carries per game and likely a double-digit target share on an efficient offense; that archetype could compete for overall fantasy RB1.
FORMER PACKERS RBS
- Dillon was ineffective last season and likely slots in as the secondary back in a committee somewhere, similar to the role he filled for Green Bay. The more interesting question is where Jones ends up — he was legitimately great toward the end of last season once he got healthy. He’s 29 years old (turns 30 in December) but has shown no signs of slowing down yet. Of course, the age cliff hits fast for running backs and the wheels could fall off at any time, but one would think he’ll be the lead back wherever he signs. With multiple good offenses needing an RB (Dallas, Houston, potentially LAC), Jones can still be an effective fantasy option despite getting released by the Packers. We’ll see where he signs.
RAIDERS RBS
- This leaves Zamir White as the RB1 in Las Vegas — for now. There’s still plenty of time for the Raiders to add another back in free agency or the draft, and history hasn’t been kind to former Day 3 RBs who look set to assume a larger role. White filled in for Jacobs admirably during four starts last season, totaling 84 carries for 397 yards, but he hasn’t displayed much pass-catching acumen through two pro seasons and has a fragile grasp on the rushing role. We’ll see who’s on the roster in two months. Still, he should be upgraded given there’s a somewhat realistic chance he’s the Raiders’ lead rusher in 2024.
