Las Vegas and New York made the first splashy trade of free agency on Tuesday, agreeing to terms that send star TE Darren Waller to the Giants. Waller struggled through an injury-plagued 2022 season, but he has been electric when healthy over the past few seasons and could immediately assume alpha pass-catcher duties in New York. Meanwhile, this means less target competition for Davante Adams, Hunter Renfrow, and newly-signed Jakobi Meyers. Let’s dig into the fantasy impact of the Waller deal.
DARREN WALLER
Old projection: 55.2 receptions on 84.3 targets for 656.3 yards and 4.5 TDs
New projection: 62.8 receptions on 96.1 targets for 772.4 yards and 5.3 TDs
- Waller now goes from competing for secondary duties in Las Vegas to the likely primary pass catcher for the Giants. Brian Daboll was famously the architect of an extremely pass-heavy offense in Buffalo, and the decision to trade for Waller could indicate a desire to become more pass-heavy after posting a -3.9% Pass Rate Over Expectation in 2022. There are reasons to be bullish on him as a Giant.
- With that being said, Waller turns 31 in September and is coming off an injury-hindered 2022 campaign. There is legitimate risk with his profile, even if we can project him for a sizable base target share given his history of earning elite volume and the lack of other pass catchers for the Giants.
- We view this as a positive move for Waller’s value simply because he’ll get more volume in New York, but it’s not like Waller suddenly catapults into the upper echelon of fantasy tight ends.
OTHER GIANTS PLAYERS
- We were already projecting the Giants to add multiple pass-catchers, so we didn’t have to change much on the Giants front (we figured there was no way they went into 2023 with the same skill position group). The one player whose projected target share did drop significantly was Daniel Bellinger, who we had tentatively penciled in as the TE1 (or at least someone who would have a good chance in a TE competition) after operating in that role as a rookie. Waller’s arrival will relegate him to 2-TE sets and a non-fantasy-relevant target share. The Giants could still add a WR and we are still baking in that possibility in our projections. If the calendar hits May and they still only have Wan’Dale Robinson and Isaiah Hodgins as their WR duo, we will bump them accordingly, but too much can happen in FA or the draft for us to get too excited about them now.
OTHER RAIDERS PLAYERS
- First and foremost, this means more targets for Adams, Renfrow, and Meyers. For the few short hours after Meyers signed but before Waller was traded, this looked like a pretty crowded target tree with four competent pass catchers vying for opportunities. Adams is the clear top dog in this offense and we knocked him the least after the Meyers signing, so all we did for the Waller trade was bring his target share back to where it was before the Meyers news. Renfrow and Meyers are bigger winners from this trade simply because, as ancillary options behind Adams (whose volume we view as fairly safe), they can now earn a larger slice of the pie.
- Foster Moreau is an unrestricted free agent, but this could open the door for him to seize the TE1 job in Vegas if the Raiders bring him back. We’ll see what happens, but he could be a sneaky TE2 option in fantasy if he’s back. From Weeks 7-14 with Waller injured, Moreau averaged 4.6 targets per game and had at least a 90% snap share in each game (and at least a 96% snap share in all games but one). Every-down TEs are a rare commodity in the NFL, and there’s a scenario where Moreau inherits a sizable role for the Raiders. But right now, he’s still a free agent.
- We aren’t projecting Moreau with a TE1-level target share yet because he hasn’t re-signed. If he does, we’ll bump him, but for now, we are baking in the possibility they could add a TE. We also lowered the Raiders’ TE target share as a whole with Waller gone.
