Another free-agent domino dropped on Sunday afternoon when Ian Rapoport reported Houston planned to sign Nick Chubb after a Monday visit, pending a physical. Assuming Chubb passes his physical, he’ll join Joe Mixon to form one of the bigger-name RB duos in the league. Let’s break this signing down fantasy-wise.
NICK CHUBB
- Chubb had a catastrophic knee injury two years ago and a broken foot in 2024. He turns 30 years old in December. He averaged 3.3 yards per carry last year, and Underdog Fantasy’s Hayden Winks highlighted that he was dead last in yards before contact last season. That’s not solely an RB stat — offensive line plays a role — but it does demonstrate a concerning lack of explosiveness coming off a major injury. In 2025, he’ll be another offseason removed from the knee injury, but he’s still coming off a serious injury at an advanced age. There’s a very wide range of outcomes here: Chubb could legitimately push Joe Mixon for early-down work, or he could be a complete non-factor (or cut candidate?) if he just doesn’t have the juice anymore.
- For now, we’re inserting Chubb as the RB2 by carry volume but still have him behind Woody Marks as the RB3 in target share. That makes him a tough click in fantasy drafts right now, but a strong offseason and training camp could skyrocket that ranking. If Chubb can assert himself as the unquestioned RB2 by the end of the offseason, he’d offer intriguing contingent upside in the event of a Mixon injury.
JOE MIXON
- Mixon had a ludicrous workload when healthy last year. In games where he wasn’t hurt entering the week and didn’t get hurt mid-game, he had just one week where his market share of Houston’s designed runs was less than 78.3%. His 77.2% designed rush rate, including games he was limited in, ranked fourth in football. In other words, when Mixon was healthy, all other RBs were a complete non-factor in the run game for the Texans in 2024. His current ADP leaves plenty of room for more involvement from his backups, so this is hardly a death knell. With that being said, it’s still a slight downgrade for Mixon simply because it’s more touch competition than he had previously.
- As mentioned above, Chubb was largely ineffective last year. There’s a world in which he makes no meaningful contribution for Houston in 2025 and Mixon reasserts himself as the workhorse. There’s also a scenario where Chubb regains some of the magic he had in his younger years and forces a committee. Ideally, training camp and the preseason will give us a better idea of Chubb’s current capabilities, but we aren’t super worried yet about a 29-year-old RB coming off back-to-back serious season-ending injuries. Mixon dropped only slightly in our rankings.
OTHER TEXANS RUNNING BACKS
- The aforementioned Woody Marks is one of the premier pass-catching backs in the 2025 rookie class — he had 261 career catches in college — and he’ll immediately threaten Dare Ogunbowale as the primary third-down back. The Chubb signing dampens any optimism regarding Marks’ big rushing ceiling if Mixon gets hurt.
- Dameon Pierce has seemingly never fully gained the trust of this Texans coaching staff and will have to fight for a roster spot with Chubb in town.
