Tom Brady announced his retirement on February 1, 2022.
On March 13, he announced he would be returning to the Buccaneers for his age-45 season.
His retirement lasted just 40 days. His decision has massive fantasy implications, as what was previously a question mark under center for Tampa Bay is now the greatest quarterback of all time. The Bucs go from a middle-of-the-pack squad to a Super Bowl favorite. Chris Godwin and Mike Evans ascend back into the fantasy elites.
Let’s dig into how ETR’s projections changed as a result of Brady’s announcement.
TOM BRADY
Old projection: N/A
New projection: 444.4 completions on 682.1 attempts (65.2%) for 5,126.7 yards, 37.2 touchdowns, and 12.9 interceptions. QB7 on Underdog.
- We had the Brady-less Bucs projected for 25.0 points per game and an above-average 62.0% pass rate. With the GOAT’s return, those numbers shoot up to 28.0 points per game (tied for second in the league) and a 64.5% pass rate (first in the NFL). Tampa Bay’s team pass yards per attempt increases from 7.1 to 7.5. We have the Bucs projected for the most pass attempts in the league (696). It’s difficult to overstate the importance of Brady’s decision on a team level.
- Brady provides nothing as a rusher, but that didn’t stop him from finishing as the QB3 in points per game in 2021. He projects as a mid-range QB1 for us on Underdog.
CHRIS GODWIN
Old projection: 87.5 catches on 125.7 targets for 1,033.2 yards and 5.8 touchdowns. WR17 on Underdog.
New projection: 89.9 catches on 127.1 targets for 1,117.5 yards and 7.0 touchdowns. WR11 on Underdog.
- Godwin sees a slight uptick in targets with Brady back in town, but the real story is his efficiency. Previously, we had Godwin averaging 8.2 yards per target. With Brady, that number skyrockets to 8.8 — which makes an enormous difference for a player projected for 127.1 targets. Godwin’s touchdown rate also jumps from 4.6% without Brady to 5.5% with him. With Antonio Brown gone, Godwin and Mike Evans have truly elite ceilings. Godwin is a low-end WR1 for 2022.
MIKE EVANS
Old projection: 73.3 catches on 122.6 targets for 1,002.9 yards and 8.7 touchdowns. WR16 on Underdog.
New projection: 75.5 catches on 124.0 targets for 1,092.4 yards and 9.4 touchdowns. WR10 on Underdog.
- Like Godwin, Evans sees a small uptick in targets with Brady under center, but his increased efficiency catapults him into top-12 territory. Evans also goes from 8.2 yards per target to 8.8, plus his touchdown rate leaps from 7.1% to 7.6%. Previously, we had him barely eclipsing the 1,000-yard mark — something he has done all eight years of his career — but he’s now almost 100 yards clear despite only a 1.4-target bump. Brady’s return is an enormous boon to the value of his wideouts, mostly from an efficiency standpoint.
OTHER BUCS PLAYERS
- Brady announced his return one day before the legal tampering period began — a clear signal to other Bucs players that he’s ready to run it back. Leonard Fournette is an unrestricted free agent — and our projection bakes in that uncertainty — but he’d see a sizable increase if Tampa Bay brings him back and fails to add another back in free agency or the draft. They used him as a workhorse last year, and Fournette entering the 2022 campaign as their RB1 seems like more of a possibility now that Brady is back. ESPN’s Jenna Laine says the team has been happy with Fournette, but he could be out of their price range, plus “the feeling from some inside the organization is that they also need some game-breaking speed.”
- Tyler Johnson and Scotty Miller become interesting late-round options, although the Buccaneers could add another wideout. Johnson and Miller could split snaps in 3-WR sets, plus they have contingent upside if either Godwin or Evans miss time.
