Our NFL staff is comprised of professional DFS players, veteran fantasy analysts, data scientists, and film watchers. In this article, we give everyone a chance to give their favorite sleeper and favorite bust for the 2024 fantasy football season. This article will update in the event of new news on any of the below players.
Sleepers
Joe Mixon
Is Mixon going too early to be considered a traditional “sleeper”? Probably. Do I care? No. If he was named “James Wood”, Mixon would be going in the third round of drafts, not outside the top 60 picks. Mixon has a history of workhorse ability, and plays for one of the best young offenses in football. That offense also happens to deploy a Shanahan-style rushing attack. Bonus points that Mixon has been far more successful under center than out of shotgun. – Anthony Amico
Chase Brown
The prototypical running back to target later in drafts: showed workhorse ability in college, attached to a strong offense and quarterback, explosive speed (clocked fastest in-play speed per Next Gen Stats last season), and has role expansion in his favor. Zack Moss will play plenty, but Brown has more juice. – Adam Levitan
Rome Odunze
Close your eyes and imagine a wide receiver prospect drafted inside the top 10, who was freakishly athletic (posted a 9.92 RAS score out of 10, ranking 27th out of all wide receivers over the last 35 years), posted over 1,600 yards and 13 touchdowns in his final season, and was drafted to a team with a quarterback who is the No. 1 overall pick and considered one of the best prospects to come out at his position in a decade. What round do you think this player would be going in? Rome Odunze carries an ADP just over 100 on Yahoo, 120 on ESPN, and the earliest ADP you can find on him in any format is the mid-60s on Underdog where best ball drafters value youth and the wide receiver position more than those in home leagues. In comparison, Malik Nabers and Marvin Harrison Jr. are going 30 and 50 spots ahead of him respectively, despite being considered within the same tier as those players in the draft evaluation process. Odunze’s ADP is getting punished by a combination of being considered the third of an elite trio of prospects and by target competition, as the Bears have established options like D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen. While Odunze’s path to target volume isn’t as clear as Harrison Jr. and Nabers, drafters’ confidence in this gap is simply too wide for their talent levels. The list of wide receivers drafted inside the top 10 in the last five years is filled with elite rookie seasons: Garrett Wilson (83-1,103-4), Drake London (72-886-4), Ja’Marr Chase (81-1,455-13), Jaylen Waddle (104-1,015-6), and DeVonta Smith (64-916-5). The average rookie wide receiver season drafted inside the top 10 over the last five years was 80.8 catches, 1,075 yards, and 6.8 touchdowns. This is essentially a stat line you’re seeking out in Rounds 2 and 3 of your fantasy draft. Odunze is the best wide receiver value on the board this season. – Drew Dinkmeyer
Jayden Daniels
Quarterback strategy this year for home leagues should be about one thing: upside. The depth at the position allows for you to take risks on hitting elite ceilings because when you miss, you’re still very easily able to find alternative competent QBs. In fact, the difference in our projections between QB12 and QB18 is less than a point per game. And outside the top 10 QBs, there is no QB with more upside than Jayden Daniels. His college game thrived in two key areas: deep passing and rushing. In 2023, he had one of the most impressive deep passing seasons we’ve seen in a while: 53 of 79 passes of 15+ Air Yards for 1,783 yards, 24 touchdowns, and just one interception. That 67.1% completion rate led the country, 34.1% higher than No. 2 Caleb Williams. And on the ground, Jayden averaged 71.9 yards per game with 7.5 yards per carry. That ranks fifth in Rushing Yards Per Game out of 114 drafted or draft-eligible QBs since 2014. Put those two together and you get the combination of solid weekly rushing production plus big-play ability in the deep balls. Combine that with an overall strong QB profile, No. 2 overall draft capital, and Kliff Kingsbury leading the offense, and you have quite the recipe for a breakout season. – Justin Herzig
Rico Dowdle
Dowdle is extraordinarily cheap — placing 144th overall on FantasyPros’ half-PPR ADP — for a player who The Athletic’s Jon Machota said “has to be the favorite to lead the team in rushing”. Dowdle’s competition for the RB1 job comes from 29-year-old Ezekiel Elliott, who stumbled to 3.5 yards per carry and -0.39 Rush Yards Over Expectation per Attempt in 2023 (Rhamondre Stevenson, for reference, was at 4.0 and -0.12, respectively, on the same Patriots offense). Dowdle has dazzled in training camp and has a clear runway to the RB1 role on one of the best offenses in football. – Jack Miller
Rashid Shaheed
24th in Yards Per Route Run (1.89) among 99 qualifiers with 500 snaps the last two years, Rashid Shaheed is expected to have an expanded route tree from two-wide sets sans Michael Thomas (free agent). And if we’re projecting an increase in his on-field participation, note that Shaheed has averaged an 18% target share and 10 half-PPR points — equivalent to an every-week WR3 — in the 10 career games he’s logged 70% of New Orleans’ snaps. The good news is that he can be drafted in the 12th round (lol) as your WR5/6. – John Daigle
Demarcus Robinson
Here’s one for those in deeper leagues. The Rams ran a league-high 95%(!!!) of their plays out of 3-WR sets last season in which Robinson supplanted Tutu Atwell for the third spot alongside Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp starting in Week 14. From Weeks 14-17 last season, Robinson ran a route on 97% of dropbacks, commanded a 21% target share, led the team in Air Yards share (41%), led the team in end-zone targets (67%), and even scored a rushing touchdown. He’s also a savvy run blocker, and that should keep him on the field for an offense that likes to audible in and out of the run regularly. Besides his standalone value, Robinson could also provide high contingent value should Kupp’s age or injury history catch up to him. We may only have a limited sample of Robinson’s success in Sean McVay‘s offense, but he’s someone I want to bet on in the final round of my drafts. – Sam Brott
Jake Ferguson
Uninspiring to the masses due to a perceived lack of talent and misguided low-ceiling label, Ferguson turned in the highest single-game tight end fantasy score of the 2023 season. He just hid it during the NFL playoffs. Ferguson also led his position in red-zone targets by a significant margin (25 versus 20 for second-place Travis Kelce). He has softer target competition than last year and impressive contingency value if CeeDee Lamb or Brandin Cooks is injured — while playing in a fast-paced, high pass-rate offense with a clown-car backfield containing no standout pass catchers. With a wide playing-time moat relative to Cowboys tight ends and a quarterback who loves throwing to his position, Ferguson quietly offers plenty to get excited about. – Pat Thorman
Jameson Williams
This is the year. It HAS to be for Jameson Williams and the Lions. After two rough offseasons to start Jamo’s career thanks to a torn ACL recovery and a gambling suspension, as well as a pulled hamstring in last year’s training camp, Williams didn’t have much practice time to get integrated into Ben Johnson’s offense despite his immense talent and first-round draft capital. But this offseason has been different, and confidence has been oozing out of Williams, Johnson, and Dan Campbell. Josh Reynolds is gone, and players like Daurice Fountain and Antoine Green are competing for the WR3 spot. We know the talent is there for Jamo; he just needs the opportunity. Barring any setbacks from now until the start of the season, I believe that opportunity will come in 2024 and am eagerly drafting Williams in home leagues at a WR48 ADP. – Mark Dankenbring
Busts
Rhamondre Stevenson
After averaging a meager 6.5 YPR the first three seasons of his career, the Patriots went out and got a back in Antonio Gibson who could easily usurp Stevenson on passing downs. That leaves Rhamondre as an early-down RB for a team with a journeyman or rookie QB, and devoid of any real offensive playmakers. These are typically not conditions in which we see RBs flourish. – Anthony Amico
Travis Kelce
Taylor Swift’s touring partner will turn 35 in October. The Chiefs reduced his regular-season routes last season, and I’d bet on his routes per game hitting career-low marks this season. That’s easier for the Chiefs to do now that they have a loaded WR corps of Rashee Rice, Marquise Brown, and Xavier Worthy — plus Noah Gray and Jared Wiley at TE. Despite all of this, Kelce has an ADP of 27.0 in an unusually deep tight end group. Kelce will have a harder time separating from his position, as he’s going multiple rounds ahead of rising studs like Dalton Kincaid (52.3), Trey McBride (47.7). Mark Andrews (47.3), Kyle Pitts (61.3), George Kittle (61.7), and Evan Engram (71.0), who are all fine targets as well. – Adam Levitan
Sam LaPorta
Similar to Levitan’s macro outlook on Travis Kelce, Sam LaPorta’s 26 ADP is far too expensive and entails ignoring the elite WRs and RBs we should instead be leaning on in his range. From a micro stance, LaPorta’s touchdown rate is unsustainable after he walked 41.6% of his red-zone targets (24) into the paint — the highest conversion rate among 122 players with 10+ targets inside the 20. The TE3-7 in ADP are not only being drafted multiple rounds later, but they need to only keep it close between themselves and LaPorta/Kelce in order to outscore teams who zig for either. – John Daigle
Dalton Kincaid
The list for high-end tight ends continues. Kincaid had a great rookie season by tight end standards and provided a lot of value for his drafters. I expect him to continue his strong play this year as well, but his situation is subtly more muddled. We have yet to see exactly how Buffalo’s WR rotation will play out, but all candidates for significant playing time have shown an ability to operate over the middle of the field, where Kincaid thrives. Last year, Kincaid had one of his strongest stretches over the weeks that Dawson Knox missed due to injury, and I expect Knox to continue to eat into Kincaid’s route share again this season. Kincaid is currently being drafted at the beginning of Round 5 among a handful of very high-upside WRs such as Malik Nabers, Zay Flowers, and Tee Higgins. I’d much rather build out my other skill positions at this point in the draft and wait for another TE that I view to have a safer and more consistent role several rounds later in Evan Engram, Jake Ferguson, or David Njoku. – Sam Brott
Aaron Jones
Aaron Jones enters his age-30 season coming off of career lows in yards per carry (4.6) and yards per target (5.5). He’s spent the bulk of his career playing behind upper-echelon offensive line groups in Green Bay and now transitions to a Vikings offensive line that ranks middle of the pack in Brandon Thorn’s offensive line rankings. Jones is the prototypical dead-zone running back being drafted because of pedigree and perceived opportunity, but his previous employer actively sought out a replacement in free agency (Packers signing Josh Jacobs) and the Vikings’ financial commitment to Jones was limited to just one year. Much of Jones’ value in fantasy the last five years has been tied to touchdowns (10 per season), but over the last three seasons, he has just eight rushing touchdowns in total. He’s thrived on unusually high receiving touchdown totals for a running back to help sustain his value. On the wrong side of 30 and showing declines in efficiency across the board, I’m not interested in spending a top-75 pick on a touchdown-dependent player moving to an offense potentially undergoing a rebuilding season. Jones will be one of my lowest-exposure players this season. – Drew Dinkmeyer
Zamir White
Zamir White is the exact type of back you have to be worried about. He’s a two-down back on a bad offense with very little pedigree, but he is getting propped up in ADP because it looks like he’ll get a lot of carries. Betting on a huge quantity of low-value touches is a losing proposition, creating the dreaded “small hit, big miss” profile. These types of players offer a low ceiling and carry a lot more risk than it appears on paper. Whether it is the offense’s inefficiency or the touch volume we’re counting on evaporating in an unforeseen way, White carries major bust potential. – Mike Leone
Mike Evans
Evans has been the absolute epitome of consistency for his entire career, topping the millennial mark in receiving yards in an NFL-record 10 straight seasons to begin his career. Now, though, he’ll be 31 years old when the season starts, lost star OC Dave Canales to the Panthers’ head coaching job, and Baker Mayfield could come back down to Earth after a career-best season (likely partially due to Canales). With Chris Godwin garnering incessant hype throughout the offseason with his move back to the slot and Evans getting up there in age, I’m more inclined to wait and take Godwin 2-3 rounds later. – Jack Miller
Raheem Mostert
If Raheem Mostert repeats 2023, 1,000+ rushing yards and 18 TDs, he will absolutely smash his ADP as a seventh-rounder. However, there are substantial enough red flags to make the risk outweigh the upside. He is 32 years old and has struggled to stay healthy throughout his career, missing on average six games per season. He shares the backfield with De’Von Achane, who is coming off one of the most efficient RB seasons in history and is likely to see an increased workload. And this year, the Dolphins gave up a 2025 third-round pick to select Mostert’s likely successor, Jaylen Wright, a 4.38 speedster. Outside the RBs, Miami’s O-Line has also taken a step back from last year, and with a 9.5 win total, this team may need to rely more on their passing game and playing from behind. Too many things can go wrong for Mostert to warrant his current cost, especially when you compare him to the talent at other positions going around him. – Justin Herzig
T.J. Hockenson
Hockenson had surgery on Jan. 29 after blowing both his ACL and MCL. Given a nine-month timeline, his earliest return is October — making the PUP list probable. Currently picked as the TE13 in half-PPR home leagues, Hockenson is expensive if first eligible to return in Week 5, and wildly overdrafted if his stint lingers. This also assumes he is his old self — which is questionable for physical and environmental reasons. Hockenson won’t return to the high-flying Kirk Cousins offense. These Vikings are piloted by Sam Darnold or sashimi-raw rookie J.J. McCarthy. Hockenson offers fantasy rosters brand-name comfort, but his risk-reward ratio is unfavorable for the 10th and 11th round of home leagues. – Pat Thorman
Austin Ekeler
We’re just one year removed from Ekeler going in the first round, but oh what a difference one year makes. After logging a combined 38 touchdowns and 177 receptions over the 2021-2022 seasons, Ekeler disappointed as the RB28 in half-PPR fantasy points last season. Now, he’s dropped into a situation in Washington where access to what made him an elite fantasy asset, receptions and touchdowns, are much tougher to find. Brian Robinson profiles as the clear goal-line back in Washington, coming in three inches taller and 30 pounds larger than Ekeler, and Jayden Daniels enters the NFL as one of college football’s most prolific scramblers, especially under pressure (Washington’s OL is ranked 32nd by Brandon Thorn). We also now know that RB targets are slightly reduced by playing with a QB who often scrambles. Ekeler is currently going ahead of Brian Robinson in home leagues, and his name value should keep drafters interested, but I’m not. Ekeler is a clear stay-away for me entering his age-29 season. – Mark Dankenbring
