If you know what you’re doing, today’s slate could be a PayDay because it is nutty (get it???). There are 25 players listed as out, three doubtful, seven questionable and two probable. If you haven’t checked out the Injuries to Watch yet, I’d check that first to get you set up for how I’ll be going through this column (not needed if you’re tight on time, though). Like yesterday, today’s slate is all about opportunity and not nearly as much about the matchup, so the matchup helps/hurts thing doesn’t hold nearly as much weight. Almost all the spreads aren’t out as of early Tuesday, but that really doesn’t matter anyway.
Brooklyn Nets vs. Orlando Magic (-6), 1:00 pm ET
Team Totals: Nets 108.3, Magic 114.3
Pace rank: Nets 10th, Magic 26th
Nets expected starters: Tyler Johnson, Jeremiah Martin, Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot, Lance Thomas, Rodions Kurucs
Magic expected starters: D.J. Augustin, Evan Fournier, James Ennis, Gary Clark, Nikola Vucevic (note: maybe, just maybe this is the day Markelle Fultz starts)
Injury news: Jarrett Allen, Caris LeVert, Joe Harris, Garrett Temple and Jamal Crawford all are out for the Nets; Terrence Ross (personal) is out while Aaron Gordon (hamstring), Evan Fournier (illness) and Michael Carter-Williams are doubtful.
Nets rotation notes: Chris Chiozza should see decent minutes as a starter or off the bench, Dzanan Musa, Justin Anderson and Donta Hall should fill out the nine-man rotation.
Magic rotation notes: Steve Clifford talked about making sure his team is healthy for the playoffs, the Magic are also locked in for the No. 8 seed, this rotation could be messy.
*Small sample, but Jeremiah Martin has been excellent in his 47 minutes with more FD points per minute in the bubble than Kawhi Leonard, LeBron James and Devin Booker. He can do a lot of things on the stat sheet, and several members of the Nets really talked him up during the scrimmages. He’s probably going to be off the radar for most people, but I could see him crushing.
*Several times, coach Steve Clifford has stressed Fultz’s conditioning, and he finally got Fultz up to 32.6 minutes on Sunday (28.6 in regulation). With nothing to play for, Fultz could be really busy in a dream matchup with pace, horrible rim protection, and no strong defenders against him.
*Chris Chiozza continues to be one of the most ball-dominant players in the league, and Tyler Johnson has shot the ball horribly in the bubble. A lot of new pieces in the Magic rotation could lead to some big output from the guards, and especially Rodions.
Houston Rockets (B2B) vs. San Antonio Spurs, 2:00 pm ET
Team Totals:
Pace rank: Rockets 4th, Spurs 15th
Rockets expected starters: Russell Westbrook, Ben McLemore, Danuel House, Robert Covington, P.J. Tucker (Note: House is questionable)
Spurs expected starters: Dejounte Murray, Keldon Johnson, Lonnie Walker, DeMar DeRozan, Jakob Poeltl (Note: Derrick White is questionable, but he left the arena early on Sunday after his injury)
Injury news: James Harden (rest) is out, Eric Gordon (ankle) is out for one more, Danuel House (toe) is questionable, Russell Westbrook (quad) is fully expected to play despite a Q tag, and Derrick White (knee) is questionable.
Rockets rotation notes: D’Antoni has continued to play fast in the bubble with the top pace and he’s kept it tight regardless of who’s out.
Spurs rotation notes: Spurs also playing very fast in the bubble with a top-three pace, players are calling Patty Mills “coach Patty” now.
*Dejounte Murray has looked like an off-ball guy and his time with the ball in his hands was plummeting prior to the White injury. Here’s a look at the percentage of time he has the ball per minute starting with the first game of the restart: 16.1%, 15.1%, 13.4%, 10.9%, 10.7% and 12.8%. That was quite a drop until the game White got hurt, so he might be able to come back to life here in a very fantasy-friendly matchup.
*Assuming there’s no stunning news, Russell Westbrook is in a smash spot. In 156 minutes without Harden and no traditional center out there, Westbrook has a per-36 line of 34/10/10 with 1.2 steals, 5.4 turnovers and 0.5 blocks on a 38.8 usage rate and 110.7 pace.
*You probably don’t need me to tell you about Austin Rivers after his 41-point explosion as an obvious play if House sits (he’s a play regardless). If White sits, the Spurs may go with Marco Belinelli because Coach Pop has really counted on White for spacing. Keldon could still see big minutes. Plus, don’t forget Lonnie had his breakout game against the Rockets with a career-high 28 points on Dec. 3. Lots of value here.
Phoenix Suns (B2B) vs. Philadelphia 76ers (B2B), 4:30 pm ET
Team Totals:
Pace rank: Suns 9th, 76ers 19th
Suns expected starters: Ricky Rubio, Devin Booker, Mikal Bridges, Cameron Johnson, Deandre Ayton
76ers expected starters: Shake Milton, Furkan Korkmaz, Matisse Thybulle, Tobias Harris, Al Horford (note: Horford and Tobias are questionable for this B2B, I’d bet one sits)
Injury news: Joel Embiid (ankle) and Josh Richardson (rest) are out, Tobias Harris (ankle) is questionable, Al Horford (knee) is questionable, and the Suns haven’t submitted their injury report yet.
Suns rotation notes: Ricky Rubio had his minutes held in check at 21 on Monday, Jevon Carter continues to see big minutes (garbage time helped on Monday, did play full fourth in tight game Saturday), hopefully Deandre Ayton took his test for this one.
76ers rotation notes: Al Horford could likely play all five if he plays, Burks could still smash off the bench, Josh Richardson not playing opens up more ball-handling.
*In 313 minutes without Embiid and Ben, Shake Milton has a per-36 line of 22/3/4. If Tobias plays, the Suns probably put Mikal on Tobias, so Shake still sets up very well.
*The Suns continue to have a very productive offense with their fourth-ranked pace. Booker is coming off his bubble-high 37.5 usage rate and he didn’t even have to go wild in the playing time department at 29 minutes on Monday.
*Mikal Bridges finally saw his usage rate spike with a 24.0 on Monday. The Villanova product gets a revenge game against a team that employed his mom when drafted, and he should get big minutes. For what it’s worth, Devin Booker joked about not answering a question from a 76ers writer after Monday’s game.
Boston Celtics (-4.5) vs. Memphis Grizzlies, 5:00 pm ET
Team Totals: Celtics 114.5, Grizzlies 110
Pace rank: Celtics 17th, Grizzlies 6th
Celtics expected starters: Kemba Walker, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Gordon Hayward, Daniel Theis (note: Theis is probable, but I’d treat him as a questionable)
Grizzlies expected starters: Ja Morant, Dillon Brooks, Kyle Anderson, Anthony Tolliver, Jonas Valanciunas (note: Really don’t think Tolliver should start after they hid him on OG Anunoby, but Jenkins seems to like it)
Injury news: Daniel Theis (foot) is probable, and the Grizzlies have their usual injury report (no Tyus Jones, Justise Winslow, Jaren Jackson Jr.).
Celtics rotation notes: Celtics could manage some of their players in this game or the next, Robert Williams is ahead of Enes Kanter right now.
Grizzlies rotation notes: Kyle Anderson foul trouble cost him minutes to go to Grayson Allen, Ja continues to get ridiculous minutes.
*Prior to Sunday, coach Brad Stevens said the sports science staff said it made sense to limit his main guys in two of the three final games. He didn’t limit them on Sunday, so that means their starters and Marcus Smart could have some limits on them today. Be careful.
*After playing a full first quarter just once before the shutdown, Ja Morant has played a full first in each of the last three games. Dillon Brooks keeps taking shots away from him and the Grizzlies really should be wise enough to know that Ja is their best option on offense. It’s a bad matchup, but big chance here.
*Grayson Allen continues to anchor the second unit and has seen even more time with Ja. You’d think the Grizzlies really couldn’t start Tolliver, so it could be Grayson to help give the offense a jump start. Brandon Clarke makes sense, too. I’ll add the Grizzlies coverage has been pretty lame in the bubble, and Jenkins is getting some lazy questions, so not many quotes to go off here.
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Dallas Mavericks (B2B), 6:30 pm ET
Team Totals:
Pace rank: Blazers 13th, Mavericks 18th
Blazers expected starters: Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum, Carmelo Anthony, Zach Collins, Jusuf Nurkic
Mavericks expected starters: Luka Doncic, Seth Curry, Tim Hardaway Jr., Dorian Finney-Smith, Kristaps Porzingis
Injury news: Hassan Whiteside (hip) is probable and the Mavs haven’t submitted their injury report.
Blazers rotation notes: Stotts 100% sold on his rotation with a heavy dose of Gary Trent Jr. off the bench.
Mavericks rotation notes: Guys should be back after rest on Monday, and might be a normal rotation (more below).
*Coach Rick Carlisle had a pretty revealing quote on Monday. “You’re not supposed to rest your guys on national TV games, so that’s another factor that played into (resting Doncic and KP),” Carlisle said before Monday’s game. “It has nothing to do with the opponent or anything like that.” The Mavs are on TNT tonight, so we should feel pretty good about a regular rotation.
*Luka is just ridiculous and he has made one of the biggest impacts to an offense ever. In the last game, he had an absurd 52 drives, increasing him to 34.2 per game in the bubble (Westbrook led pre-bubble at 20.7), he’s at 11.4 minutes of touch time per game (9.1, Trae Young ), and 22.0 potential assists (18.7, LeBron James). He’s likely going to get a lot of Gary Trent Jr. on him, but not even the Bucks could stop him. He’s basically matchup proof. I’d feel pretty confident getting him in lineups.
*Gary Trent Jr. continues to be ridiculous with his 76.1 TS% for the highest among players with at least 29 minutes per game. He’s also at 33.3 minutes per game, and has consistently been at 34-36 in the last five. He’ll need to play big minutes as the primary defender on Luka Doncic.
*Dame is mad. Big mad. Cam’RonYouMad dot GIF mad even. Prior to Pat Beverley and the Clippers talking trash, Dame was under 30 usage rate in each of the five games in the bubble. However, he went for a 41.1 usage rate in 40 minutes. He’s basically a lock for 40 minutes again, and he’s even been able to hand out plenty of assists with teams trapping him more.
New Orleans Pelicans vs. Sacramento Kings, 9:00 pm ET
Team Totals:
Pace rank: Pelicans 2nd, Kings 20th
Pelicans expected starters: Lonzo Ball, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, E’Twaun Moore, Nicolo Melli, Derrick Favors
Kings expected starters: Cory Joseph, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Harrison Barnes, Nemanja Bjelica, Alex Len (note: Would not be surprised to see Buddy Hield start)
Injury news: Jrue Holiday, Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson are all out, the Kings won’t have De’Aaron Fox and Richaun Holmes, and Kent Bazemore (calf) is questionable.
Pelicans rotation notes: Before the Pelicans were eliminated, coach Alvin Gentry talked about giving younger guys more opportunity.
Kings rotation notes: De’Aaron Fox is in the top six for touch time per game and he’s first in usage rate on the team at 30.5, so lots of play-making chances to go around here.
*It’s a NAW day. In 252 minutes without Jrue, Zion and BI, Alexander-Walker has a per-36 line of 17/6/7 with 1.3 steals and a 24.3 usage rate. The Kings defense is awful in the bubble at 118.4 D rating, and the pace of this game is going to be like a track meet.
*It has to be Buddy time, right? Per 36 in 1,231 minutes without Fox, Buddy is at 23/5/4. Coach Luke Walton said last week he hasn’t lost confidence in Buddy, and he’s obviously fresh at just 18.6 minutes per game over the last three.
*DaQuan Jeffries saw 30 minutes against the Rockets (garbage time), and he was one of the darlings of their scrimmages. He can play a lot of four and three, and obviously there is a lot of usage up for grabs.
Milwaukee Bucks (B2B) vs. Washington Wizards, 9:00 pm ET
Team Totals:
Pace rank: Bucks 1st, Wizards 5th
Bucks expected starters: Frank Mason, Sterling Brown, Pat Connaughton, Marvin Williams, Robin Lopez (note: I’m expecting heavy rest here, obviously, but chances are not all of the key guys will sit)
Wizards expected starters: Ish Smith, Isaac Bonga, Troy Brown Jr., Rui Hachimura, Thomas Bryant
Injury news: Shabazz Napier (ankle) is questionable, the Bucks haven’t submitted their injury report (likely some rest here).
Bucks rotation notes: Expect rest here.
Wizards rotation notes: 10 minutes of Troy Brown Jr. without a Napier or Ish next to him in the last two games, Brooks has said that Brown will start at the point in one of these games.
*Really nothing to add here on the Bucks besides what was said yesterday. Brook Lopez said the team is ready for the playoffs, and we know coach Mike Budenholzer will rest guys in back-to-back sets. If it’s a rest fest, here are the FD points per minute ranks on the Bucks: Giannis, Middleton, Bledsoe, BroLo, Thanasis, Ersan, Donte, Hill, Brown, Mason, Wilson, Pat, Korver, Marvin, Wesley.
*Coach Scott Brooks said Rui Hachimura has to put up more of a fight after the loss to OKC. “You have to catch it deeper and go right through the guy’s chest. He’s going to learn that,” Brooks said. “He’s still learning the league and the defenses that are going to be thrown at him.”
*The Bucks (probably) resting guys should make their outstanding interior defense vulnerable, which should open up some interior scoring for Troy, Thomas Bryant, Jerome Robinson and Ish Smith. The pace should still be there, so it could lead to some big Wizards lines.
