*Pitbull voice* Playoffs! No more guessing if coach Nate McMillan is lying, and no more projecting second-half minutes for the 13th guy in the rotation. The Disney playoffs are uncharted waters, but we know they should be more exciting than the lame Pirates of the Caribbean ride. We have a pretty good idea of how teams will match up against their opponents, and just a quick shoutout to NBA.com/stats for so many stats in this column.
Utah Jazz vs. Denver Nuggets (-3), 1:30 pm ET
Team totals: Jazz 107.3, 110.3
Season series: 3-0 Nuggets
Pace Ranks: Jazz 24th, Nuggets 29th
Defensive Ranks: Jazz 13th, Nuggets 16th
Injury News: Mike Conley (personal) will not play in at least Game 1, Gary Harris (hip) and Will Barton (knee) are also out.
Jazz Expected Starters: Donovan Mitchell, Jordan Clarkson, Joe Ingles, Royce O’Neale, Rudy Gobert
Nuggets Expected Starters: Jamal Murray, Torrey Craig, Michael Porter Jr., Paul Millsap, Nikola Jokic
Jazz Rotation Notes: The Jazz squeezed out Emmanuel Mudiay a bunch to make it an eight-man rotation at times in the bubble, that might have to change with no Conley.
Nuggets Rotation Notes: Lots of talk of P.J. Dozier playing more at the two, Malone was really concerned with his 3-point defense, Malone has closed with Jerami Grant over Millsap at times with other starters in the bubble, Jamal Murray got to 39 minutes from a 22-minute restriction.
*The Jazz have a higher pick-and-roll ball handler frequency than any other team in the league by a decent margin. The Nuggets weren’t bad at PNR ball-handler defense on the year, but some PNR-heavy guys smashed on them in the bubble (Dame 45 points, Mitchell 35, Lou Williams 23 points in 24.7 minutes). Donovan Mitchell has been guarded by Torrey Craig more than almost any this season (just Dillon Brooks has more time on him). Craig has been excellent on Mitchell so far as a top-five guy in Mitchell points allowed per partial possession. You’d assume Craig is on Mitchell a bunch. This would’ve helped Mike Conley a lot, but it could help Joe Ingles and Jordan Clarkson instead with Conley out to start the series.
*UPDATE: Conley now out does change some things here. Conley was actually handling the ball more than Mitchell per minute in the bubble, but now Mitchell will be huge in generating the Jazz offense. Even in a bad matchup, just the play-making chances should help his upside.
*Nikola Jokic has not had any trouble with Gobert, putting up a per-36 line of 28/12/7 in 103 minutes against him this year, and an 18/15/10 line in 106 minutes in 2018-19. Gobert has also fared well against The Joker with a 19/13/1 line with 1.4 blocks per 36 in 103 this year, but he wasn’t as productive last year at 14/9/2 with 3.1 blocks per 36 in 106 minutes.
*The Nuggets were shorthanded against the Jazz this year with Will Barton, Gary Harris and Paul Millsap missing two games each. That explains why Craig is second in minutes against the Jazz this season and guarded Donny so much. Jamal Murray carved up the Jazz defenders with Mitchell guarding him the most and Royce O’Neale as the No. 2 guy, and Murray was way above average on scoring efficiency against Mitchell (even more against Royce, for what it’s worth). Murray actually didn’t even shoot the ball well as a jump shooter against the Jazz, and it was more about him smashing on drives and at the rim. The Jazz were also shredded on the perimeter at times in the bubble.
Other Quick Matchup Notes: The lack of SF depth should help MPJ get big minutes, P.J Dozier and Monte Morris may have to fill SG minutes out of necessity, none of the Jazz’s deep bench depth really made a strong case for playing time (Rayjon Tucker, Jarrell Brantley, Miye Oni were solid).
Matchup Helps: Jamal Murray, Torrey Craig, Jerami Grant, Jordan Clarkson
Matchup Hurts: Donovan Mitchell, Paul Millsap
Brooklyn Nets vs. Toronto Raptors (-10), 4:00 pm ET
Team totals: Nets 106.8, 115.8
Season series: 3-1 Raptors
Pace Ranks: Nets 10th, Raptors 12th
Defensive Ranks: Nets 10th, Raptors 2nd
Injury News: Jamal Crawford (hamstring) is out
Nets Expected Starters: Caris LeVert, Garrett Temple, Joe Harris, Rodions Kurucs, Jarrett Allen
Raptors Expected Starters: Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet, O.G. Anunoby, Pascal Siakam, Marc Gasol
Nets Rotation Notes: Rodions Kurucs only played 0.4 minutes at center in the last game, the backup five to Jarrett Allen was a mixture of Lance Thomas, Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot and Justin Anderson (Allen played 37 minutes), Tyler Johnson picked up all the backup PG minutes in the last one (9.2 minutes of overlap with LeVert, Chris Chiozza was hurt).
Raptors Rotation Notes: In 2018-19 Nurse increased Lowry’s minutes 3.4 minutes and Siakam’s 5.3 minutes (Kawhi also got a bump), zero minutes of Serge Ibaka with Gasol in the bubble (89 on season, eight minutes of Gasol-Serge vs. Nets all in one game).
*The Raptors halfcourt defense is better than the Bucks. Among playoff teams, the Raptors allow the fewest FGAs off drives for PNR ball handlers while the Nets offense is in the top seven in FGAs and possessions for PNR ball-handlers. However, Caris LeVert in the bubble hasn’t leaned on PNR possessions quite as much as Kyrie Irving and Spencer Dinwiddie did. After a shaky bubble debut, LeVert got up to 68.2% on his layup FG% over his last six games (45.1 FG% on layups prior to August). He did torch the Raptors in his two non-limited games against them, averaging 28.5 points, 5.0 boards, 4.0 dimes, 2.5 steals, 3.0 turnover and 3.0 treys (Kyle Lowry didn’t play in one).
*The Raptors allow the most corner 3-pointers in the league (first in both right and left corner), but they’re also the best team on 3-point percentage on above-the-break treys. Garrett Temple is the Nets’ main corner trey guy by a lot.
*Pascal Siakam was the focal point of the offense when he was out there with a 29.9 usage rate in his minutes against the Nets. He didn’t really shoot it well with a 45.5 TS%, but that was Taurean Prince defending him most of the time. The bubble Nets have given up some big stat lines to well-rounded forwards, and a matchup against Rodions Kurucs should also set up nicely for Siakam.
Other Matchup Notes: The Nets will likely try to hide Caris on O.G. to allow him to focus more on offense, the Raptors are likely going to try to attack Jarrett Allen because foul trouble would be big trouble with no reliable backup.
Matchup Helps: Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet, Kyle Lowry, Serge Ibaka, Marc Gasol
Matchup Hurts: Jarrett Allen, Rodions Kurucs
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Boston Celtics (-5.5), 6:30 pm ET
Team totals: 76ers 111.3, Celtics 116.8
Season series: 3-1 76ers
Pace Ranks: 76ers 20th, Celtics 17th
Defensive Ranks: 76ers 8th, Celtics 4th
Injury News:
76ers Expected Starters: Shake Milton, Josh Richardson, Tobias Harris, Al Horford, Joel Embiid (note: Matisse Thybulle could start, presumably for Al Horford to guard Tatum)
Celtics Expected Starters: Kemba Walker, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Gordon Hayward, Daniel Theis
76ers Rotation Notes: Alec Burks has played backup PG the most in the last four games (43 minutes without Shake, 21 with), Joel Embiid had most of his minutes next to Al Horford in the last four games
Celtics Rotation Notes: Kemba said he is “ready to roll” and he is ready for “big minutes” in this series, Semi Ojeleye played against the 76ers in each of the four games.
*Kemba Walker said he’s ready to face Josh Richardson, who he’s struggled against in his career. Over the last three seasons, Kemba has shot just 10-of-30 against Richardson (five treys, three FT). It didn’t really affect his usage too much and his assists were there, too.
*Jayson Tatum really struggled against the 76ers this year with a -10 TS% differential against them over his four contests. However, he had to deal with Ben Simmons this year with his 5-of-16 shooting line against Ben’s defense. Ben also guarded Tatum more than anyone else in the league this year, and Tatum’s offensive usage against Ben was in the bottom 12 among the top 50 guys to guard him this season. Without Ben to guard him, Tatum could make a really big impact in this series.
*Daniel Theis is a solid PNR defender, but Embiid isn’t going to do that. The Process smashed on Theis over 37 minutes this season, putting up a 30/12/5 line over that time and Ben was out there for 30 of those 37. Embiid’s stats without Ben are also studly at a 30/15/4 per-36 line over a 665-minute sample (+6.5 usage rate, 27/13/3 with him).
Other Matchup Notes: Brett Brown said he wanted to go nine deep in the playoffs (this was before the Ben injury), Al Horford’s stats next to Embiid are terrible.
Matchup Helps: Joel Embiid, Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown
Matchup Hurts: Daniel Theis
Dallas Mavericks vs. Los Angeles Clippers (-6), 9:00 pm ET
Team totals: Mavericks 112, Clippers 118
Season series: 3-0 Clippers
Pace Ranks: Mavericks 18th, Clippers 8th
Defensive Ranks: Mavericks 18th, Clippers 5th
Injury News: The Clippers listed Montrezl Harrell (personal), Patrick Beverley (calf), and Landry Shamet as questionable, Kristaps Porzingis (heel) is probable.
Mavericks Expected Starters: Luka Doncic, Seth Curry, Tim Hardaway Jr., Dorian Finney-Smith and Kristaps Porzingis
Clippers Expected Starters: Patrick Beverley, Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, Marcus Morris, Ivica Zubac
Mavericks Rotation Notes: Boban has seen minutes in all three games against the Clippers (one was when Dwight Powell hurt his Achilles).
Clippers Rotation Notes: Lou Williams got up to 25 minutes in his last game on Aug. 12, Clippers “hope” to have Montrezl Harrell for this one.
*The Clippers do have a strong interior defense, but they have been vulnerable against drivers, ranking 29th in percentage of paint points via drives and slightly below average on points per game off drives. Although, the Clippers really limited Luka’s drives in the bubble with just 18 in his 35 minutes (0.51 drives per minute). In the other six bubble outings including one game where he sat out in the second half, Luka was at 32.2 drives per game (0.91 drives per minute), so the Clippers had held him pretty close to half of what he was doing on his most valuable offensive attribute. The Clippers and coach Doc Rivers made it clear they knew what the focus of their defensive plan would be. “It takes a whole team to guard him,” Rivers said. Kawhi Leonard guarded Luka early on to start halves and Leonard said the plan was “showing bodies, bodies in front of him.” Luka only had 11 points at the line and inside the arc combined, so the Clippers did about as well as they could at taking away what Luka does best. The Clippers put Patrick Beverley on Luka previously, which would be a win for Luka. Still, it makes so much more sense to put a bigger body on Luka to make this a tough matchup.
*The Mavs prioritized their best defender, Dorian Finney-Smith, on Kawhi with Tim Hardaway Jr. on Paul George, and Luka Doncic on Marcus Morris. Even with DFS on Kawhi for most of his matchups, his shot distribution overall was consistent with his season production. Kawhi was a tick down on jumper efficiency against the Mavs, especially from deep. Kawhi obviously had his highest usage rate against the Mavs when PG-13 sat out one game, but he had one of his worst shooting games against them. Now that he’s out of his slump, Kawhi should dominate this series. The Mavs also have the second-worst halfcourt defense among playoff teams.
*Kristaps Porzingis did not have much success against the Clippers, averaging 18.3 points, 9.3 boards, 2.3 dimes and 1.0 blocks on a 35/30/78 shooting line. The Clippers did leave KP wide open on 3-pointers more often than his other games, and somewhat surprisingly not as much in the last game when limiting Luka was a priority. He really just missed his shots against the Clippers, making just 1-of-9 on mid-range shots and 7-of-23 on treys. As mentioned above on Luka, you could really see the Clippers creating a tougher path for Luka to get a clear lane. They would often have Zubac sag off screens to not give Luka a driving path. That should help KP get open a whole bunch. KP at the five has also been a stat machine, putting up a per-36 line of 26/11/3 over a 341-minute sample.
*Another player who has really thrived off the KP5 lineup has been Seth Curry, putting up 19.1 points per 36 with 3.6 boards and 3.6 dimes. It’s a little inflated because he had an unsustainable 80.8 TS%, but he’ll get a whole lot of open looks based on how much the Clippers sell out on Luka.
*Ivica Zubac also smashed on the Mavs in their bubble game with 21 and 15 over 24 minutes. Montrezl Harrell may have some minutes limits on him after missing so much time.
Matchup Helps: Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, Kristaps Porzingis, Seth Curry
Matchup Hurts: Luka Doncic
