The Tuesday Game 1 action didn’t have quite as many quirky aspects in the rotations compared to the Monday slate, but we still saw a handful of surprising game plans from a usage standpoint and on how the rotations were constructed.
Miami Heat (-4) vs. Indiana Pacers, 1:00 pm ET
Team totals: Heat 109.5, Pacers 105.5
Pace Ranks: Heat 27th, Pacers 22nd (slowest pace Tuesday)
Defensive Ranks: Heat 12th, Pacers 6th
Injury News: Jae Crowder (ankle) is questionable, and Victor Oladipo (eye) is questionable after going through some of the walk-through on Wednesday (we’re projecting him in, same with Crowder).
Heat Expected Starters: Goran Dragic, Duncan Robinson, Jimmy Butler, Jae Crowder, Bam Adebayo
Pacers Expected Starters: Malcolm Brogdon, Aaron Holiday, Victor Oladipo, T.J. Warren, Myles Turner
Heat Rotation Notes: No Kendrick Nunn at all, Olynyk squeezed to just 4.1 second-half minutes, Derrick Jones 6.0 second-half minutes, Goran Dragic team-high 20.1 second-half minutes (Jimmy second 18.4, Bam 18.1, Tyler Herro 17.5), only 1.5 minutes of Iguodala with Robinson, only 4.4 minutes of Bam with Kelly Olynyk, 19.7 minutes of Herro with Dragic, final eight minutes in the fourth of Dragic, Herro, Iggy, Jimmy, Bam (+10 in that time to help Miami pull away; Dragic, Herro and Iggy played full fourth).
Pacers Rotation Notes: Aaron Holiday foul trouble derailed him (played final 8.3 minutes, just 7.8 in previous 39.7 minutes combined), Victor Oladipo’s eye injury knocked him out to get Edmond Sumner and Justin Holiday more time (Justin 18.4 minutes in second half, Sumner 14.2), 4.4 minutes of T.J. McConnell with Brogdon, 1.3 minutes of JaKarr Sampson with Turner.
*The Heat closing lineup (Dragic, Herro, Iggy, Jimmy, Bam) was not used at all in the regular season or earlier in Game 1 before Spo went all out with it. Considering Spo played Herro so much in the rest game, it speaks volumes how much he must really trust him. Herro’s minutes were at the expense of Duncan Robinson, and Robinson talked about how he was targeted on defense on Wednesday. “I didn’t give them much in Game 1 for them not to think that,” he said. It kind of worked out perfectly for Herro, so might be tough for him to be in such a great spot again. Brogdon really torched Robinson, so that might be the factor Spo needs to figure out (more on Brogdon below).
*Coach Erik Spoelstra responded to critics saying Bam isn’t aggressive enough, saying those people can “stick it up you know where.” Bam locked down Myles as expected (Myles had two blocks on Bam). Bam struggled with his shot against Myles with just a 3-of-10 line against him and Bam didn’t perform on his non-restricted twos at just 1-of-4 (10 potential assists, six real ones).
*Malcolm Brogdon was in total control of the offense, and it likely had very little to do with Victor Oladipo. He had an extremely high time of possession at 9.6 minutes (season leader was Trae Young at 9.1), and he was as aggressive as ever with 24 drives (season leader 20.8, Westbrook). Brogdon should be fine regardless, but you would think Spo re-works his plan to cover him better and not put Duncan Robinson on him at all. That could help T.J. Warren a bit, too.
*Jimmy Butler got the short end of the stick on potential assists more than most with 13 potential assists (four assists). Jimmy also didn’t have it on his paint shots at 4-of-9, so things could break right for him even more in Game 2.
Matchup Helps: Bam Adebayo, Jimmy Butler, Goran Dragic, Malcolm Brogdon, Andre Iguodala
Matchup Hurts: T.J. Warren, Myles Turner
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Houston Rockets (-2), 3:30 pm ET
Team totals: Thunder 112.8, Rockets 114.8
Pace Ranks: Thunder 21st, Rockets 2nd (second-slowest pace Tuesday)
Defensive Ranks: Thunder 7th, Rockets 15th
Injury News: Luguentz Dort (knee) is out again, Russell Westbrook (thigh) doesn’t have a timetable to return yet, and Luc Mbah a Moute (knee) is also out.
Thunder Expected Starters: Chris Paul, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Terrance Ferguson, Danilo Gallinari, Steven Adams
Rockets Expected Starters: James Harden, Eric Gordon, Danuel House, Robert Covington, P.J. Tucker
Thunder Rotation Notes: Nerlens Noel foul trouble got Mike Muscala into the mix, 2.1 minutes of garbage time, Dennis Schroder with the four main starters was used for eight minutes (+10.2 net rating), 2.5 minutes of Darius Bazley with Gallinari and Adams frontcourt (just four all regular season), Chris Paul had 20.2 first-half minutes
Rockets Rotation Notes: Was odd that Covington played in garbage time, Jeff Green used in nine of top 10 lineup combos used in Game 1 (starting unit the exception, of course) as the backup PF and C, 21 minutes of Tucker with Green, even 3.8 minutes of a Green/RoCo/Tucker frontcourt, Eric Gordon played all 12 of the non-Harden garbage time minutes.
*Harden didn’t smash because of no dimes (three, 12 potential assists) and no D stats. The Thunder also did a bang-up job of keeping Harden away from the rim with just 18.2% of his shots coming at the rim (30% in three previous matchups, 28.3% on the season). Harden absolutely smashed when Gordon was on the bench with 24 points in 16 minutes (13 in 19 with him), but it’s a little fluky because he just made shots in the time without Gordon. Don’t let the quiet-ish game from James sway you from throwing him out there again. The Harden-Green PNR play continues to look killer, and more Green does help Harden slightly, too.
*Like Harden, Gordon made his hay when he was without him, scoring 12 points with three dimes in 12 minutes (nine points and one dime in 19 minutes with Harden). As a perpetual Gordon doubter, I have to admit he looked explosive and healthy after yet another injury during the seeding games. I’m still not totally sold in a tough matchup.
*Chris Paul really tried to take over the game in the second half, but meanwhile SGA’s confidence looked really shaken with just nine drives in Game 1 after 17 per game in the seeding games. SGA just doesn’t have that same smoothness to his game, and not getting big volume on drives with heavy playing time against a team like Houston is somewhat alarming.
Matchup Helps: Chris Paul, James Harden, Danilo Gallinari, Jeff Green
Matchup Hurts: Dennis Schroder
Orlando Magic vs. Milwaukee Bucks (-13), 6:00 pm ET
Team totals: Magic 107.8, Bucks 120.8
Pace Ranks: Magic 26th, Bucks 1st (fastest pace Tuesday)
Defensive Ranks: Magic 11th, Bucks 1st
Injury News: Michael Carter-Williams (foot) is doubtful, and Aaron Gordon (hamstring) is questionable.
Magic Expected Starters: Markelle Fultz, Evan Fournier, James Ennis, Aaron Gordon, Nikola Vucevic
Bucks Expected Starters: Eric Bledsoe, Wesley Matthews, Khris Middleton, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Brook Lopez
Magic Rotation Notes: 3.0 minutes of Khem Birch with Vooch, 4.8 minutes of D.J. Augustin with Markelle Fultz, Gordon only did a light practice and 2-on-2 on Wednesday, Clifford said he emphasized not fouling, Clifford said Ennis was “terrific” on Khris Middleton, Clifford seemed pretty satisfied with his rotation on Wednesday.
Bucks Rotation Notes: Brook didn’t match on Vooch (22 minutes on, eight off for Lopez, five off in first half), 10 minutes of Giannis with no other PF/C (Connaughton on for 10), six minutes of a Marvin-Giannis PF/C duo, seven minutes of George Hill with Bledsoe, starters were smashed on at 145.5 D rating in 10 minutes (109.7 on season).
*Vooch has fared well against Brook Lopez, and he was the star of the show with 35 points and 14 boards in the stunning win. The Bucks are likely going to really game plan against him for this one and Giannis even talked about how they could limit him during the game. “We thought in the third quarter in the fourth quarter by switching and sending him to the post, we can slow him down, but we didn’t,” Antetokounmpo said. “So, he played a great game. Just gotta do a better job, take that individual pride and guard him.” The Bucks have so much personnel that can limit Vooch, so expect some regression there.
*D.J. Augustin was fantastic as a combo guard with his 11/3/11 line, including 19 potential assists. He looked great at the end of the seeding games and we know he’ll need to be counted on if the Magic are missing Aaron Gordon’s offensive output again. Markelle Fultz should also be a bigger factor as Vooch gets more attention.
*Giannis Antetokounmpo was just a massive part of the offense with 16 potential assists. He had 17 shots within four feet of the basket and made just eight of them for well below his average. He struggled at the line (4-of-9) and he was sloppy with his turnovers. What’s even crazier is his touch time per minute was down compared to the regular season, so Giannis’ role on per-minute output is just insane. If you think the Magic can hang again, Giannis should be a priority play for you. Big if, of course.
Matchup Helps: Giannis Antetokounmpo, D.J. Augustin, Brook Lopez, Markelle Fultz
Matchup Hurts: Nikola Vucevic (thinking he’s going to get a lot of attention in this one)
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Los Angeles Lakers (-6.5), 9:00 pm ET
Team totals: Blazers 111.3, Lakers 117.8
Pace Ranks: Blazers 13th, Lakers 11th (second-fastest pace Tuesday)
Defensive Ranks: Blazers 27th, Lakers 3rd
Injury News: Zach Collins (ankle) is out, Rajon Rondo (thumb) is questionable, LeBron James (groin) is probable, and Anthony Davis (knee) is probable.
Blazers Expected Starters: Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum, Carmelo Anthony, Wenyen Gabriel, Jusuf Nurkic
Lakers Expected Starters: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Danny Green, LeBron James, Kyle Kuzma, Anthony Davis
Blazers Rotation Notes: 11 minutes of Hassan Whiteside next to Nurk in Game 1 (+13!), starters smashed in just nine minutes (+41.7 net rating), only eight minutes of Trent Jr. for Wenyen with other starters.
Lakers Rotation Notes: Starters got absolutely shredded in 13 minutes (-39.4 net rating), 21 minutes of AD at the five (5-6 minutes each quarter), JaVale McGee had a team-worst -39.4 net rating.
*The Lakers tried the ThisIsFineDog dot GIF plan for the entire bubble, including the scrimmages. They tried to say how their defense can help hold up their offense, but losing Game 1 has to be a breaking point after their starters had the worst O rating in the seeding games (min. 20 minutes). That should put AD at the five here to bring Dwight Howard off the bench. AD has been a monster as a five in 854 minutes on the year, sitting at a 31/11/3 with 3.4 blocks and 1.6 steals per 36. The Blazers’ interior defense has been bad for basically the whole year and in the bubble, so AD could smash. Although, he is somehow 10-of-53 on his non-restricted twos (18.9%) in his last eight games, so that’s really hard to ignore. AD did shred Nurk in Game 1 and struggled against Gabriel. Kuzma should also get some big burn.
*Gabriel should be a lock for the starting gig again, and somehow AD shot just 1-of-10 against Gabriel’s defense. Coach Terry Stotts is probably going to try to get Whiteside next to Nurk when Dwight Howard is out there, but it might be hard for Whiteside to see 11 minutes next to Nurk again. That could open up a few more minutes for Gary Trent Jr., too.
*Dame and LeBron lived up to the billing on the stat sheet as expected, and that should be the case again. The Lakers were somehow 2-of-16 on wide-open treys, and LeBron had 26 potential assists.
Matchup Helps: LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Damian Lillard
Matchup Hurts: Jusuf Nurkic
