We’re set for another round of Game 3 action, and Thursday’s winners really dominated when it counted (Heat, Rockets, Bucks, Lakers). They’re all outplaying their opponents in most aspects of the game, and the defense has really shown up on some key possessions. Like Friday, there’s going to be some blowout risk in most on these games, so that factor will likely swing a lot of great lineups to just good ones or OK lineups to bad ones.
Milwaukee Bucks (-12) vs. Orlando Magic, 1:00 pm ET
Team totals: Bucks 119, Magic 107
Injury News: Giannis Antetokounmpo (calf) is probable, Aaron Gordon (hamstring) is questionable (more below), and Michael Carter-Williams (foot) is doubtful.
Bucks Expected Starters: Eric Bledsoe, Wesley Matthews, Khris Middleton, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Brook Lopez
Magic Expected Starters: Markelle Fultz, Evan Fournier, James Ennis, Aaron Gordon, Nikola Vucevic
Bucks Rotation Notes: Giannis-Connaughton PF/C combo saw 10 minutes in Game 1 and zero in Game 2, Connaughton had 10 minutes as a SF with Giannis and Brook and eight minutes without Giannis or Brook, no Giannis at the five in the last game (10 in first), zero minutes of George Hill with Bledsoe in Game 2 (seven in Game 1), Bucks at playoff-best 13.0 seconds per possession.
Magic Rotation Notes: Five minutes of Fultz with D.J. Augustin in each of the two games, five minutes of Khem Birch with Vooch in each of the two, Clifford knows his team is going to struggle in the paint against the Bucks, Clifford said he wants more ball movement to reset offense for PGs.
*Giannis is just absurd on the glass at a playoff-best 37.8 defensive rebounding rate (nobody over 30, 47.2% in first half!), and he led in seeding games at 33.7 (min 20 mpg). He has a 39.1 usage rate and has the fastest pace of anyone on the slate today (min 20 mpg). Aaron Gordon would likely guard him and he has struggled against Gordon on offensive efficiency, but it hasn’t mattered with a 29/18/8 per 36 in 69 minutes of court time shared with AG. If this game is close, GA smashes again.
*The Bucks tried to stop Vooch, but it didn’t work again. In the series, he’s scored 29 points as a roll man on a stupid 1.8 PPP for more close to triple his season average on points per game off that play (doubled league-leader John Collins at 6.7). The Bucks aren’t even really defending his treys with 14 of them wide open, two open and zero contested (even his two-point jumpers have been open at 15-of-17). If you wanted to roll Giannis, coming back with Vooch makes sense.
*Khris Middleton has zero shots at the rim in this series and James Ennis has done a really good job on him. Middleton should snap out of it sooner here, but a takeaway would be Ennis certainly deserves playing time even if AG is back.
*On Aaron Gordon, Clifford said Gordon is “doing better” and was doing contact on Friday. Gordon basically will be a game-time decision after Clifford said he wants to see how he feels today. That’s usually an indicator that a player went pretty hard in practice. Clifford also talked about how the Magic will need to help out Gordon on Giannis, so it sounds like he’s in.
Matchup Helps: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nikola Vucevic, Brook Lopez
Matchup Hurts: Aaron Gordon
Indiana Pacers vs. Miami Heat (-5), 3:30 pm ET
Team totals: Pacers 104.5, Heat 109.5
Injury News: Jae Crowder (ankle) is questionable and Derrick Jones Jr. (ankle) is questionable.
Pacers Expected Starters: Malcolm Brogdon, Aaron Holiday, Victor Oladipo, T.J. Warren, Myles Turner
Heat Expected Starters: Goran Dragic, Duncan Robinson, Jimmy Butler, Jae Crowder, Bam Adebayo
Pacers Rotation Notes: Foul trouble burned Aaron Holiday again and he still performed, zero minutes of T.J. McConnell with Brogdon (4.4 in Game 1 because of Oladipo injury and Aaron foul trouble).
Heat Rotation Notes: Tyler Herro has played final 17-18 minutes in each of the last two, Butler said the Heat made it a point to get Duncan Robinson treys early, Bam foul trouble in Game 2 hurt him a bit (32 minutes), Duncan Robinson still at 25 minutes despite 7-of-8 on treys.
*The Heat have thrown Jimmy Butler and Goran Dragic at Malcolm Brogdon an even amount at 25.6 partial possessions in this series. However, Brogdon has almost triple the amount of points and four times the assists when he’s guarded by Dragic compared to Butler. Spo really upped Butler on Brogdon in Game 2 and basically kept Duncan Robinson away from him. Brogdon’s role is still aces with high touch time, he’s drawing fouls, has potential assists and drives, but the matchup is getting more difficult.
*Victor Oladipo has seen some really big usage at 29.0 percent after it did trend down in the seeding games. The Heat prioritizing defenders on Brogdon and Warren has put Duncan Robinson on Oladipo almost three times more than any other Heat defender. He wasn’t very efficient with his usage, and he could really have a big opportunity as a tertiary concern to Spoelstra.
*Erik Spoelstra has been a bit funky in the first half, but his second-half rotation has been similar in both games. After not even using a lineup with Dragic, Tyler Herro, Andre Iguodala, Jimmy and Bam ever in a game before the fourth quarter of Game 1, he closed with it for the final eight minutes in each of the two games with no subs. It seems pretty clear he trusts these guys when the chips are down.
Matchup Helps: Tyler Herro, Andre Iguodala, Jimmy Butler, Victor Oladipo, Bam Adebayo
Matchup Hurts: Myles Turner
Houston Rockets (-3) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder, 6:00 pm ET
Team totals: Rockets 113.5, Thunder 110.5
Injury News: Russell Westbrook (quad) remains out and Luc Mbah a Moute (knee) is out.
Rockets Expected Starters: James Harden, Eric Gordon, Danuel House, Robert Covington, P.J. Tucker
Thunder Expected Starters: Chris Paul, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luguentz Dort, Danilo Gallinari, Steven Adams
Rockets Rotation Notes: Jeff Green continues to just take most of the PF/C backup minutes (House plays some PF), Ben McLemore gets most of the backup SG/SF, 12 minutes of Austin Rivers with Harden in Game 2 (five in Game 1).
Thunder Rotation Notes: Dort played 24.3 of 25.3 minutes when Harden was out there, Schroder lineup still doing well (+17.6 in 16 minutes), one minute of Dort at PF.
*The Thunder continue to do a bang-up job on Harden, limiting him to just 15.8% of his shots at the rim in the first two games to keep him at almost half his season average of 28.3%. He shot just 1-of-7 against Dort in Game 2 and 2-of-13 against him in the regular season. Harden talked about struggling on O in Game 2. “Nights like tonight, it’s great for me. It humbles me because I know that I can do so much more. If I’m not making shots, then I gotta find other ways to impact the game,” he said. He might have another tough night, but Harden has lit up the best defenses that sell out on stopping him, too. On the flip side, Dort should play a lot.
*SGA really came alive after his confidence was shaken in Game 1. He had 19 drives in Game 2 after just nine in Game 1. He had big drive volume in the seeding games and just wasn’t making them, so improvement there is huge.
*Jeff Green again continues to find time and the Harden-Green PNR continues to see more volume to initiate offense. Foul trouble has helped him a bit, but he’s starting to cut Robert Covington a bit. Danuel House has been spectacular on both ends with really good defense on Chris Paul in Game 2.
Matchup Helps: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Danilo Gallinari, Steven Adams, Chris Paul, Danuel House, Luguentz Dort
Matchup Hurts: James Harden (Dort has been great on him, could still get hot)
Los Angeles Lakers (-7.5) vs. Portland Trail Blazers, 8:30 pm ET
Team totals: Lakers 115.3, Blazers 107.8
Injury News: LeBron James and Anthony Davis are probable yet again and are fully expected to play, Damian Lillard (finger) is available, and C.J. McCollum (back) is available, Rajon Rondo (thumb) is questionable.
Lakers Expected Starters: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Danny Green, LeBron James, Anthony Davis, JaVale McGee
Blazers Expected Starters: Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum, Carmelo Anthony, Wenyen Gabriel, Jusuf Nurkic (note: think there’s a decent chance Gary Trent Jr. starts over Gabriel)
Lakers Rotation Notes: AD hanging at 19 first-half minutes in each, Kuzma 15 first-half minutes, Vogel went 11 deep in the first half.
Blazers Rotation Notes: 14 minutes of Nurkic with Hassan Whiteside in Game 2 (11 in Game 1), only two minutes of the Dame/CJ/Trent/Melo/Nurk in Game 2 (seven in Game 1), Mario Hezonja 8.6 first-half minutes in Game 1 (7.3 in Game 1).
*Shot quality matters, and the Blazers not getting open looks caught up to them. They have just 21 wide-open trey attempts in this series, which is below their 29th-ranked 12.9 per game over the season (sixth-worst on open treys, defender 4-6 feet away). After going 2-of-16 on wide-open treys in Game 1, the Lakers were 8-of-22 on those in Game 2. The Blazers are also a disaster on offense after the Lakers make a shot, putting up a brutal 73 O rating (118 after a miss, was actually better in the blowout loss). Gary Trent Jr. really needs to start here because AD is going to shred whoever is in front of him anyway. For what it’s worth (very little), Gabriel was playing in garbage time.
*The Lakers’ PNR defense has really held up. Damian Lillard was the best PNR scorer maybe ever this year, but Dame is shooting just 28.0% on FGAs off PNR (40.0 eFG%). They’re also really keeping him away from getting downhill at just 5.0 points per game off drives (11.3 in seeding games). They’ve also really kept him out of the paint at just 25.8% of his shots (39.2% on season). He’s going to have to hit some tough shots to smash, which we know he can.
*AD is back! Coming into Game 2, he was just 10 of his last 53 on non-restricted twos, but AD basically took that part out of his game with just three mid-range twos. If the Blazers do make a lineup change and they have to put Nurk on AD more, AD has destroyed Nurk at 16 points on a 76.7 TS%. PF has been a wasteland, so AD should be a priority play.
Matchup Helps: Anthony Davis, LeBron James, Kyle Kuzma, Hassan Whiteside
Matchup Hurts: Jusuf Nurkic, Damian Lillard (can still smash, but lots of reasons this is tough)
