With Luka Doncic (ankle) possibly out for this one, this slate could be real ugly. Three of the four games have a spread of eight or more, so hoping the Nuggets actually show up for the late game could be the key here. Hey, maybe they were just so bad because it was an early game. Still, despite that game being slow, it’s easily the best bet for a game that’ll avoid garbage time.
Boston Celtics (-8) vs. Philadelphia 76ers, 1:00 pm ET
Team totals: Celtics 110.5, 76ers 102.5
Injury News: Javonte Green (ankle) is out and Glenn Robinson III (hip) is out
Celtics Expected Starters: Kemba Walker, Marcus Smart, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Daniel Theis
76ers Expected Starters: Shake Milton, Josh Richardson, Tobias Harris, Al Horford, Joel Embiid (note: All bets are off here and it might be Alec Burks or Matisse Thybulle for Horford)
Celtics Rotation Notes: Grant Williams had a quick hook in the first half for Romeo Langford but looked great in the second half, Wanamaker with Kemba for 5.6 minutes in last game (Smart 10.8)
76ers Rotation Notes: Thybulle wasn’t needed because of Tatum foul trouble, 12 minutes of Shake with Alec Burks in Game 3 (five minutes in Game 1, 10 minutes in Game 2)
*Brett Brown had some reasoning for playing Al Horford. “I just trusted his resume,” Brown said. “If we’re going down, we’re going down with him.” Big yikes. As mentioned above, all bets are off besides Embiid, Richardson and Tobias. Shake still played well enough to be somewhat safe.
*The 76ers offensive PNR game got even worse after Game 3, dropping them to just 0.68 points per possession (PPP) on 60 possessions in this series. Shake Milton was actually very aggressive in Game 3 with 14 drives after just 10 combined in Game 1-2. With the Celtics game planning to stop Embiid, Shake and J-Rich could be forced to produce more offense.
*Embiid knows his team is not great, and it sounds like he’ll be motivated here. “I don’t want to be swept. I don’t want that on my resume. I’ll be playing my butt off,” he said. Embiid hasn’t exactly tried to take over on his own with 26.9% of his buckets coming unassisted. The Celtics have really kept him away from the rim at just 23.2% of his shots, down from his 29.7%. Brown has talked about trying different ways to get him the ball, but he might just say F it.
*Jayson Tatum was badly burned by foul trouble. He’s been insanely effective when Al Horford is on him at 18 points on a 97.8 TS% in this series. He was on fire as a shooter before the Game 3 dud, and he could bust out to put the 76ers away.
Matchup Helps: Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Josh Richardson, Kemba Walker, Joel Embiid
Matchup Hurts: Al Horford
LA Clippers (-9) vs. Dallas Mavericks, 3:30 pm ET
Team totals: Clippers 120.3, Mavs 111.3
Injury News: Luka Doncic (ankle) is likely a game-time call, Trey Burke (ankle) is probable, Kristaps Porzingis (heel) is probable, and Patrick Beverley (calf) is doubtful
Clippers Expected Starters: Landry Shamet, Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, Marcus Morris, Ivica Zubac
Mavericks Expected Starters: Trey Burke, Tim Hardaway Jr., Dorian Finney-Smith, Maxi Kleber, Kristaps Porzingis
Clippers Rotation Notes: Coach Doc Rivers said he wanted to up Landry Shamet in last game (27 minutes), Doc Rivers kept his word that he wasn’t going to unleash Montrezl
Mavericks Rotation Notes: Maxi Kleber has been inept offensively as a bottom-four player in USG% and TS% in the playoffs (min. 20 mpg), Seth played the full fourth in Game 3 (Kleber and DFS 10 minutes, KP nine, THJ eight), might see some Boban
*Luka could be a game-time call for this one to open up everything for the Mavs. With the other core starters of THJ, DFS and KP while Luka is out (323-minute sample), Porzingis gets a 5.1% boost to his usage rate without Luka, THJ goes up 5.8% and Maxi gets a 5.6% boost. In a smaller sample in the series, KP gets a 6.3% usage rate boost (55 minutes with, 39 without)
*Kawhi Leonard isn’t even making his 3-point shots in this series at 4-of-17 (23.5%), and he is just dominating on his own at 79.4% of his makes coming unassisted (63.7% on season). Maxi Kleber has guarded him a whole lot in this series and he’s fared well against him at a 17-of-39 from the field (43.6%), but this has a lot to do with missed shots.
*Luka is also the top ball-handler in the playoffs. In the last game, it was clearly Trey Burke showing he’s capable of chances to run the offense with the highest touch time per minute. Plus, coach Rick Carlisle has said he likes how Trey knows the system. There’s a chance J.J. Barea throws a wrench in this, but Burke and Curry should be solid options. I’d be careful on Delon Wright. Boban also slightly benefits with the G/Fs having to slide up more.
*What’s up with Pandemic P? He’s somehow 2-of-11 on wide-open treys, which comes after he went 8-of-13 on wide-open treys in the seeding games. He was killing it on both pull-up threes and catch-and-shoot treys in the seeding games, but he’s down to 25% on each. George did have ice on his shoulder after Game 2, which was a bit of a surprise after he said he was feeling great last month. He’s getting good looks and maybe he snaps out of it.
Matchup Helps: Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, Ivica Zubac, Seth Curry
Matchup Hurts: Trey Burke (hate the matchup for him here, but still a good play for opportunity)
Toronto Raptors (-13) vs. Brooklyn Nets, 6:30 pm ET
Team totals: Raptors 115, Nets 102
Injury News: Joe Harris (personal) and Jamal Crawford (hamstring) remain out, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (knee) is questionable
Raptors Expected Starters: Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet, OG Anunoby, Pascal Siakam, Marc Gasol
Nets Expected Starters: Caris LeVert, Tyler Johnson, Garrett Temple, Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot, Jarrett Allen
Raptors Rotation Notes: Nick Nurse dropped a hint he could play Chris Boucher instead of Terence Davis II if Rondae Hollis-Jefferson is out , Pascal at the five in Game 3 (closed in Game 2)
Nets Rotation Notes: Eight-man rotation in the first half (bench of Chris Chiozza, Justin Anderson, Rodions Kurucs), trimmed to seven in 3Q (Chiozza, Dzanan Musa), the third quarter had 12 minutes of Temple, Allen and TLC (8.4 Tyler, 7.1 LeVert)
*The Raptors really switched heavy on pick-and-roll plays, which really took Jarrett Allen out of the game offensively. The Nets have run a lot of high 1-5 PNR, so coach Nick Nurse clearly had a plan to limit that.
*The Nets have been an unmitigated disaster in PNR, putting up an unfathomably bad 0.48 points per possession on 45 ball-handler possessions in this series. Their switching really messed up Caris LeVert’s style at just 12 drives in Game 3 after 51 combined in Game 1-2.
*Pascal Siakam really went back to the well of scoring in the paint, getting 60.8% of his shots inside in Game 3. In previous Matchups, I’ve mentioned his struggles on non-paint twos, so he might know it and just feast inside. The Nets having to go so small really puts him in a big spot, and he’s had the most success against TLC by far at 18 points on 81.8 eFG%. Obviously, the Raptors perimeter players should continue to score at will and get out in transition, so it’s just a matter of the Nets keeping it close
Matchup Helps: The Raptors
Matchup Hurts: The Nets
Denver Nuggets vs. Utah Jazz (-3), 9:00 pm ET
Team totals: Nuggets 106.5, Jazz 109.5
Injury News: Gary Harris (hip) is doubtful, Will Barton (knee) is still out, Ed Davis (knee) is out, and Justin Wright-Foreman (NWT) is out
Nuggets Expected Starters: Jamal Murray, Torrey Craig, Michael Porter Jr., Jerami Grant, Nikola Jokic
Jazz Expected Starters: Mike Conley, Donovan Mitchell, Joe Ingles, Royce O’Neale, Rudy Gobert
Nuggets Rotation Notes: Jerami Grant started for Michael Porter Jr. in 3Q, Malone might get wild here after his team gave up on him
Jazz Rotation Notes: Gobert at 21.4 first-half minutes in Game 3 (Royce 17.5, Mitchell 17.2, Jordan Clarkson 15.5, Mike Conley 15.3, Joe Ingles 14.1), almost a eight-man rotation in first half (Juwan Morgan 8.6, Georges Niang 7.8, Tony Bradley 2.6, Mudiay booted)
*A mad Mike Malone is an unpredictable Malone. “This is the second game in a row where we’ve gotten our ass kicked,” Malone said after Game 3. Malone mentioned it wasn’t good enough from “an effort standpoint, competition standpoint, a discipline standpoint.” Malone also mentioned that the last four minutes of the second quarter was really the only part of the game he liked, which explains why he started that five in the third quarter (Murray, Craig, Grant, Millsap, Jokic). He seems to really trust Jerami Grant here, and positional flexibility helps him in a big way.
*The lineups continue to play really slow (Nuggets starters 90.0, Jazz 1-2 starters 90.3, Game 3 89.9). However, the defense has been horrible for the Nuggets starters and the Clarkson with four starters (no Conley) as two of the bottom three defensive lineups in the playoffs (min. 20 minutes). The Nuggets defense was also the worst in the seeding games at a brutal 121.7 defensive possessions, so the Jazz could light them up again. The Jazz also had the best offense in the regular season from Jan. 1 to the shutdown. They’re legit. As mentioned in the last matchups, Mike Conley and Donovan Mitchell can co-exist, but the upside on Ingles and Royce O’Neale could be capped a bit.
*Rudy Gobert has cleaned up on the offensive glass with a playoff-high 12.9% percentage on that end (only 15.7% on D). The Nuggets were struggling on the defensive glass in the seeding games at just 0.1% off from the Rockets, so Gobert’s performance on the glass can continue.
*Malone’s middle of the rotation, but he made it sound like he’s really going to have to lean on Murray and Jokic. “We’re not going to get anywhere when Nikola and Jamal combine for 27 points,” he said.
Matchup Helps: Rudy Gobert, Donovan Mitchell, Jamal Murray, Nikola Jokic, Mike Conley, Jerami Grant
Matchup Hurts: Paul Millsap, Michael Porter Jr.
