We have another slate here with some huge spreads, including what should be a bloodbath to start the day. On Saturday, stacking the Miami-Indiana and Houston-OKC game proved to be a favorable outcome while a couple individual performances stood out in the other two games. The Bucks have really dominated most of this series, and that first game looks more stunning every day. Plus, the Lakers defense has really made things tough on the Blazers.
Milwaukee Bucks (-13.5) vs. Orlando Magic, 1:30 pm ET
Team totals: Bucks 119.5, Magic 106
Injury News: Aaron Gordon (hamstring) is out, Melvin Frazier (back) is questionable and Michael Carter-Williams (foot) is out.
Bucks Expected Starters: Eric Bledsoe, Wesley Matthews, Khris Middleton, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Brook Lopez
Magic Expected Starters: Markelle Fultz, Evan Fournier, James Ennis, Aaron Gordon, Nikola Vucevic
Bucks Rotation Notes: Nine minutes of Giannis without a PF/C in the last game (Marvin ejection part of it) with Connaughton next to him for eight, no Bledsoe with George Hill in each of the last two games (seven in Game 1).
Magic Rotation Notes: Clifford said he added some offense to the game plan (he needs it, more below), said big-minute guys “will need to again” in this one, Clifford said game plan designed to help Fultz a bit, Fultz had mentioned he needs to have accurate passes to shooters.
*Steve Clifford has mentioned his team is not really trying to get to the rim, and they’re at a playoff-low 16.0 shots at the rim per game (season low was 23.2 by SA). Only 8.7 makes at the rim, too (24.9 season low by SA). They have a playoff-high 22.3 mid-range attempts per game (Houston 2.3). They’re in the middle of the pack on treys. Trading shots at the rim for mid-range shots is just not a winning formula.
*The Bucks finally cut down Vooch as a roll man, going from 18 to 11 to eight from Game 1-3 in order. Vooch had zero shots at the rim in Game 3 (nine in first two). From a shot selection and shot-type perspective, it’s finally getting tough on Vooch.
*Nothing really left to say on Giannis at his playoff-high 1.84 FD points per minute and it’s not like he’s even racking up D stats yet; he’s first in pace, second in usage rate, and first in rebound percentage (min. 24 mpg). He can still get to value even in a blowout, but he’s going to be so attractive against the Heat in the next round.
*Khris Middleton finally got it going a bit. It didn’t really have to do with James Ennis getting ejected either (Ennis was great on him in Game 1-2). Middleton still doesn’t have a single shot at the rim, and he’s really leaning on his jumper. He had it working in the seeding games at a 57.1 eFG%, but he’s down to 38.6 eFG% in this series.
Matchup Helps: Giannis Antetokounmpo, D.J. Augustin, Markelle Fultz
Matchup Hurts: Nikola Vucevic
Houston Rockets (-3) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder, 4:00 pm ET
Team totals: Rockets 111.3, Thunder 108.3
Injury News: Russell Westbrook (quad) remains out.
Rockets Expected Starters: James Harden, Eric Gordon, Danuel House, Robert Covington, P.J. Tucker
Thunder Expected Starters: Chris Paul, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luguentz Dort, Danilo Gallinari, Steven Adams
Rockets Rotation Notes: Jeff Green continues to take time from Robert Covington (two games now).
Thunder Rotation Notes: Some Gallo at the five late to get Dort on the floor.
*After two games of keeping James Harden out of the paint, it didn’t happen in Game 3. He was up to 24 points on 27 drives to come close to matching his output in the first two games combined (30 points). From the field, he still hasn’t been able to crack the Dort code, making 3-of-21 from the field (two treys, 10 FTs) in this series (2-of-13 from field in season). It’s a really tough matchup, but he still went off even with Dort locking him up.
*SGA looked fixed two games ago, and he looked great again with 17 drives in Game 3 (19 in Game 2). He’s also really found his jumper in the last two games at 63.0 eFG% on his last 27 jumpers, which was a major issue in the seeding games. It’s a great matchup for him here.
*Jeff Green is a thing now, apparently. He had 16 second-half minutes and 17.4 first-half minutes because of some Robert Covington foul trouble. Covington’s third foul late in the first kept him from any second-quarter minutes, but it was Danuel House who benefited more from the RoCo foul based on rotations in the first two games. He’s still overachieving on 76.3 TS% and some RoCo and Tucker foul trouble in the first two.
Matchup Helps: James Harden, Chris Paul, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Steven Adams, Luguentz Dort
Matchup Hurts: Nobody
Indiana Pacers vs. Miami Heat (-6), 6;30 pm ET
Team totals: Pacers 105.3, Heat 111.3
Injury News: Jae Crowder (ankle) is questionable, Andre Iguodala (hip) is questionable and Derrick Jones Jr.
Pacers Expected Starters: Malcolm Brogdon, Victor Oladipo, Justin Holiday, T.J. Warren, Myles Turner
Heat Expected Starters: Goran Dragic, Duncan Robinson, Jimmy Butler, Jae Crowder, Bam Adebayo
Pacers Rotation Notes: Extremely tight rotation for starters (some Oladipo foul trouble).
Heat Rotation Notes: Spo has been fairly consistent in second-half rotation, really no reason to change his plan that got him to a 3-0 lead.
*As mentioned in the pod last week, Malcolm Brogdon’s role is like a player in the $9K range. He had a whopping 10.5 minutes of touch time in Game 3, and 25 drives in Game 3. He did get a little lucky on assists with 14 dimes on just 20.0 potential assists (assisted eight treys, six twos). The Heat didn’t prioritize him in their game plan in Game 3 after they really did in Game 2, which probably means he gets tougher coverages in Game 4. Still, the role is too good.
*You have to assume Justin Holiday is starting. The Justin Holiday starting unit has a 78.9 D rating in 35 minutes for the best in the playoffs, and the Aaron one has a 160.8 D rating for the worst in 24 minutes (min. 20 minutes). The other takeaway here is that lineup is likely going to be busy after 22 minutes together in Game 3.
*Miami’s offense has been smashing and their starters have a playoff-best 127.8 O rating. For the third game in a row, Spo has leaned on his closing lineup at about the eight-minute mark (Dragic, Tyler Herro, Jimmy, Andre Iguodala, Bam Adebayo). Predictable minutes here make this a great game to target.
Matchup Helps: Jimmy Butler, Victor Oladipo, Malcolm Brogdon, Goran Dragic, Justin Holiday, Tyler Herro
Matchup Hurts: Myles Turner (Note: Turner has been fantastic and has done well in this tough matchup)
Los Angeles Lakers (-7.5) vs. Portland Trail Blazers, 9:00 pm ET
Team totals: Lakers 116, Blazers 108.5
Injury News: Rajon Rondo (back) is doubtful, LeBron James (groin) is probable, Anthony Davis (ankle) is probable, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (knee) is probable.
Lakers Expected Starters: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Danny Green, LeBron James, Anthony Davis, JaVale McGee
Blazers Expected Starters: Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum, Carmelo Anthony, Hassan Whiteside, Jusuf Nurkic
Lakers Rotation Notes: Alex Caruso really stepped up and Frank Vogel liked what he saw to help LeBron play off ball more, J.R. Smith over Dion Waiters in Game 3, Kyle Kuzma’s minutes down in last two (30, 23, 21 from 1-3).
Blazers Rotation Notes: Hassan Whiteside with Nurkic at 41 minutes in series (-1.2 net rating) and 15 minutes in Game 3, Anfernee Simons replaced Wenyen Gabriel in rotation.
*Again, the Blazers failed to get open shots with just 11 wide-open treys to put them right at their average in the series (below 12.9 per game on season, ranked 29th). They’re last in points and assists, so it’s not a very big offensive pie. The Hassan Whiteside lineup hasn’t really been a big problem, so they should stick with it.
*The Lakers’ first unit has finally hit its stride with a 121.7 O rating after its horrendous run in the seeding games. The Blazers’ defense continues to struggle. LeBron’s potential assists per minute are about the same per minute. Playing off the ball a little more has set him up for some easier opportunities to score, too.
*Damian Lillard has been consistently in the 27-29 range in five of the six games (34.3 on Jan. 31). The Lakers have taken away his PNR game in each of the three games, and he still can’t get scoring when he’s rolling down hill (nine points off drives in Game 3, 5.0 in Game 1-2). He is really going to have to lean on hitting contested threes.
*The Blazers put Hassan Whiteside on AD a bunch, and he kind of held him in check early. That should help keep Whiteside in the first unit, and of course AD will get his.
*Just a quick note on Caruso: Vogel has constantly talked about liking a secondary ball-handler next to LeBron, and he frequently cites Caruso’s net rating. Minutes should be there again.
Matchup Helps: LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Alex Caruso
Matchup Hurts: Damian Lillard, Jusuf Nurkic
