The Sunday slate went completely sideways here, headlined by the Kristaps Porzingis (knee) scratch 17 minutes after that game locked. Coach Rick Carlisle said he found out 35 minutes before tip, and KP was in the starting lineup about 30 minutes prior to the news. He was listed as probable, but it was for the heel issue and not the knee issue that kept him out. Big yikes. Besides that, Luka Doncic was a game-time call and went bonkers, Kyle Lowry got hurt, and the late game was offensive madness.
For today, we get our first of many two-game slates. Both of these game environments are really nice with some poor defense being played in the early game, and just offensive powerhouses in an up-tempo style in the other game. Lots of ways to approach this one.
I was sticking to more of a three-point approach per game, but with just two games I can add some other thoughts here. I’m always open to suggestions on what kind of stats/matchups could help you, so don’t be afraid to hit me up on Twitter @MikeSGallagher with anything you think this series is missing.
Utah Jazz (-3) vs. Denver Nuggets, 6:30 pm ET
Team totals: Jazz 111.8, Nuggets 108.8
Injury News: Gary Harris (hip) is listed as questionable, but he hasn’t played in a game in five months and the only practice notes have been partial practices.
Jazz Expected Starters: Mike Conley, Donovan Mitchell, Joe Ingles, Royce O’Neale, Rudy Gobert
Nuggets Expected Starters: Jamal Murray, Monte Morris, Jerami Grant, Paul Millsap, Nikola Jokic
Jazz Rotation Notes: Just insanely tight rotation as usual with starters and Jordan Clarkson as the only guys over 12 minutes, No reason to think anything changes.
Nuggets Rotation Notes: Mike Malone made a lineup change with Monte Morris and Jerami Grant for Torrey Craig and Michael Porter Jr., Malone said he “loved it” on Monday, so presumably they’ll start again today as long as Gary Harris is out again.
*Overall, defense has been optional with the Nuggets an atrocious 131.1 D rating and the Jazz at 119.2 for two of the three worst defenses per possession in the playoffs (Nets 122.9).
*Paul Millsap talked about how the Nuggets are just getting rolled on pick-and-roll like every game. “We’ve got to do something different to figure that out and I think we’ve come up with a game plan,” Millsap said. “I think we know how to approach the game tomorrow.” Donovan Mitchell is just destroying the Nuggets in PNR, putting up a stupid 20.5 points per game on that play type (Damian Lillard’s 15.8 points on that play this regular season is the highest recorded on NBA.com, no qualifier was over 12.5 points before this regular season). Mitchell has destroyed every Nugget on him with at least 10 partial possessions: 27 points on 76.7 TS% on Torrey Craig, 28 points on 72.5 TS% on Jerami Grant, 21 points on 115.6 TS% on Jamal Murray, 28 points on 61.2 TS% on Nikola Jokic (very high usage here based on partial possessions), 25 points on 80.5 TS% on Michael Porter Jr., 15 points on 76.8 TS% on Monte Morris. He has a 77.7 TS% when he drives to get him to 67 points in the four games (10 assists, too). Basically, nobody can stop this man right now, and Gary Harris at anything less than 100% would probably get torched too.
*Mike Conley hasn’t missed a catch-and-shoot trey in this series yet on five attempts and he’s 5-of-6 when left wide open. Mitchell has been really ball-dominant in the last two games at 7.1 minutes of touch time in his 35.5 minutes while Conley sits at 4.5 in his 28.2. That’s a big bump per minute for Donny on the season and in the seeding games while Conley is a tick down. It’s knocking down Joe Ingles’ touch time a bit.
*Prior to Game 4, coach Mike Malone said he wanted to count on Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic. Murray had been getting more touches compared to the regular season, and he really dominated the ball with 99 touches and 8.3 minutes of touch time (more minutes helped, but still significantly up from season per minute, decent jump up from first three games). Murray is slaying on triples off three-plus dribbles at 12-of-20 in this series (60%) and he’s 5-of-10 on catch-and-shoot. Even as the focal point of the perimeter attack, he’s still been open on 29-of-34 attempts from deep (85.3%). He has to cool off slightly, but it’s not like the Jazz are guarding him.
*Nikola Jokic has not performed on the glass, sitting well below his season average of 15.5 TRB% at 10.0 and 8.1% in the last two games. In this series, he is getting 0.41 rebound chances per minute, which is way down from the 0.51 chances per minute he was getting in the season. As great as Rudy is, he’s basically just not getting the ball to go his way. Offensively, the Jazz have really taken away his shots near the basket, sitting at just 13.9% of his shots at less than half his season output of 28.9%. Rudy Gobert has been fantastic, so there’s some value in that stat. Although, maybe if he doesn’t have to guard PNR as much.
Matchup Helps: Donovan Mitchell, Rudy Gobert, Mike Conley, Jerami Grant, Jamal Murray
Matchup Hurts: Michael Porter Jr.
Dallas Mavericks vs. LA Clippers (-6.5), 9:00 pm ET
Team totals: Mavericks 114, Clippers 120.5
Injury News: Patrick Beverley (calf) is doubtful and Doc Rivers said he’s not expecting him to play, Kristaps Porzingis (knee) is questionable, Luka Doncic (ankle) is probable, Trey Burke (ankle) is probable.
Mavericks Expected Starters: Luka Doncic, Tim Hardaway Jr., Dorian Finney-Smith, Maxi Kleber, Kristaps Porzingis (note: Trey Burke would likely start again if KP is out)
Clippers Expected Starters: Landry Shamet, Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, Marcus Morris, Ivica Zubac
Mavericks Rotation Notes: Boban backed up Maxi Kleber (zero overlap), Seth Curry overlapped with Trey Burke for 18.4 minutes.
Clippers Rotation Notes: Doc said he is more concerned about defense in the Shamet and Lou Williams lineups over the Reggie Jackson with Lou, Clippers went no center for 14 minutes because of how Luka was shredding them.
*The term “matchup proof” gets thrown around a lot in sports, but Luka Doncic is just that. He’s been able to drive almost at will against Kawhi Leonard, sitting at 60.0 eFG% on his shots against Kawhi in this series for 14 points. I’ve mentioned it like 80 times in this column, but Luka touch time (10.2) and drives (31.0) have put him in the penthouse for alpha role in the league, and he had a stupid 27 potential assists on Sunday (13 dimes). His usage rate in Game 4 was actually down, so it was really just the rebounding that saw an increase from no KP.
*The Mavs’ D is really bad, and the Clippers are killing them in PNR. As ball handlers, Kawhi Leonard is at an absurd 1.40 points per possession (PPP) for his 13.3 points per game off that play type and Lou Williams is even better at 1.69 PPP for his 12.3 points per game. Kawhi is about as safe as it gets these days, and he really needs more usage again because…
*Pandemic P is really struggling. Dorian Finney-Smith used to be the Kawhi guy, but now he’s on PG and has held him to 3-of-14 from the field in this series. Although, basically every Mavs player has good defensive stats just because he’s missing so much (5-of-18 on THJ, 1-of-6 on Luka as his top defenders). George is just 2-of-12 when he’s wide open on treys in this series, and he’s down to 21.1% on his catch-and-shoot attempts. George said he will try to get closer to the basket in Game 5, and he’ll try to “see the ball go through” before he starts to expand his range. For what it’s worth, he didn’t have ice on his shoulder after Game 4 for his presser. Doc Rivers also said the Clippers “clearly got to get him more shots” and he “needs to shoot 20-plus times.”
*Oh, Kristaps. Let’s go over some of the quotes from coach Rick Carlisle. “This may be a game-time decision similar to what Luka’s was yesterday,” Carlisle said. He also talked about some details on testing. “I will say that there’s nothing on the MRI that has ruled him out a day before the game, and that’s good news,” he added. “I think we can take some stock in that, and we will just have to see where we are tomorrow.” KP had this knee issue in the seeding games, but as mentioned above it was his heel that put him on the injury report. Carlisle said that he didn’t even know about the injury until like 35 minutes before tip on Sunday. If he’s out again, it’s really going to be spread all over the rotation with Seth Curry, Trey Burke, Tim Hardaway Jr., Maxi Kleber and Boban Marjanovic becoming better plays.
Matchup Helps: Luka Doncic, Kawhi Leonard, Lou Williams, Seth Curry, Maxi Kleber
Matchup Hurts: Montrezl Harrell
