The sites pushed back the main slate to 4:00 pm ET for the second day in a row, but there is a tasty early game for those who want to kick it with some showdown action. The rotation notes are in there for all the matchups, but I’ll be updating the player notes and matchup aspects in the morning.
Utah Jazz (B2B) vs. San Antonio Spurs, 1:00 pm ET
Offensive pace on season (of 30): Utah ¯\_(ツ)_/¯th, Spurs 15th
Defensive pace on season (of 30): Utah ¯\_(ツ)_/¯th, Spurs 11th
Jazz expected starters: Emmanuel Mudiay, Jordan Clarkson, Joe Ingles, Georges Niang, Tony Bradley (note: Be very careful on Joe Ingles, pull him out of your lineup if he’s not starting.)
Spurs expected starters: Dejounte Murray, Derrick White, Lonnie Walker IV, DeMar DeRozan, Jakob Poeltl
Injury news: Mike Conley, Donovan Mitchell, Rudy Gobert and Royce O’Neale are all out, Nigel Williams-Goss remains out, and the Spurs won’t have Bryn Forbes again.
Jazz rotation notes: Joe Ingles is listed as available, which is unusual.
Spurs rotation notes: Lonnie Walker apologized to fans for his poor play recently, Dejounte Murray was benched with Lonnie for Patty Mills and Keldon Johnson (Poeltl for Rudy Gay, too), Keldon Johnson has back-to-back career-high scoring games, Pop said Drew Eubanks “started a little bit late” and is “just learning how to play the game,” Pop said he wants Derrick White to shoot 10 treys, Pop said he likes that Keldon has confidence to take shots from the outside.
* Emmanuel Mudiay has been pretty bad here and he might be getting a lot of leash just to get his confidence back. With Goss-Williams out, it should be Justin Wright-Foreman as the backup, and he can score a bit. Niang and Tony Bradley should be pretty solid options.
*Let’s get to know the G League Jazz guys. Rayjon Tucker is their main scorer with a 27.2 usage rate in the G League and he probably is the sneaky upside guy if Clarkson and/or Ingles are limited. Miye Oni is a bit of a well-rounded stat producer as a converted point guard, and he would likely get a decent amount of ball-handling with minutes. Although, he may have to compete with Jarrell Brantley, who also has some upside.
*The Spurs have lost two games in a row and they’re going up against a gutted team, so might be risky to roll with guys like DeMar DeRozan, Patty Mills, Rudy Gay or maybe even Jakob Poeltl.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Memphis Grizzlies, 4:00 pm ET
Offensive pace on season (of 30): Thunder 16th, Grizzlies 7th
Defensive pace on season (of 30): Thunder 29th, Grizzlies 4th
Thunder expected starters: Chris Paul, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luguentz Dort, Danilo Gallinari, Steven Adams
Grizzlies expected starters: Ja Morant, Dillon Brooks, Kyle Anderson, Brandon Clarke, Jonas Valanciunas
Injury news: Tyus Jones (knee) remains out, Terrance Ferguson (leg) is still out, Mike Muscala (concussion) won’t play, and Dennis Schroder (personal) is still away from the team.
Thunder rotation notes: Two of Dort’s top-five usage rates have come in last two, 20.5 minutes per game of Dort with CP3 and SGA in last two, Adams hurt his knee in the last one and did return, Noel with the starters for Adams has a +40.7 net rating (74 minutes).
Grizzlies rotation notes: Anthony Tolliver was the backup four and Gorgui Dieng was the backup five, Grayson Allen led Grizzlies in second-half minutes on Wednesday, Dieng squeezed in the second half with 3.1 minutes, Melton’s minutes continue to drop, Jenkins said earlier this week the offense needs to be better.
*The Grizzlies are averaging a bubble-best 10.0 seconds per possession after a defensive rebound. Ja Morant played a full first quarter in his last game for just the second time in his career, and he’s sixth in minutes per game in the bubble. He’s also second in the bubble in drives per game at 12.5 points off his 26.3 drives (Luka ahead of him in both). It’s a bad matchup for Ja, but the volume is there.
*The Thunder haven’t allowed any guards to score more than 17 points or four assists in a game in the bubble. The Grizzlies have allowed a guard to drop 21-plus points in three of their four games. SGA hasn’t hit his stride at all as a driver in the bubble yet with just a 35 FG% on his drives. Brandon Clarke lit up the Thunder back in December to set his career-high 27 points (tied it in February vs. POR)
*Dillon Brook had a five-minute stint without Ja in the last game. Grayson Allen’s usage rate is almost double without Ja compared to with him. Grayson is also top five in TS% and with Jenkins saying the offense needs to be better, he might start cutting into the minutes of Brooks and/or Kyle Anderson. Melton may get squeezed entirely, too.
Quick Note: Billy Donovan said he expected to have the majority of his players for this game. Feel free to read into this, if you like. It’s probably going to get pretty hectic soon on DNPs.
Matchup Helps: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chris Paul, Luguentz Dort
Matchup Hurts: Dillon Brooks
Note: This matchup isn’t great for Ja, but the volume is just too attractive
Sacramento Kings (B2B) vs. Brooklyn Nets, 5:00 pm ET
Offensive pace on season (of 30): Kings 17th, Nets 12th
Defensive pace on season (of 30): Kings 28th, Nets 11th
Kings expected starters: De’Aaron Fox, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Harrison Barnes, Nemanja Bjelica, Richaun Holmes
Nets expected starters: Tyler Johnson, Caris LeVert, Joe Harris, Lance Thomas, Jarrett Allen (note: Joe Harris is questionable, but this is only a contusion and not a muscle strain)
Injury news: Joe Harris (groin contusion) and Jarrett Allen (ankle) are questionable, Jamal Crawford (hamstring) is out, and the Kings haven’t filed their report yet (likely clean).
Kings rotation notes: Kings switched back to starting lineup above and scored a Sacramento-record 49 points in the first, Alex Len leapfrogged Harry Giles (B2B).
Nets rotation notes: New injuries for Harris and Allen on the injury report, Chris Chiozza is in the top 15 for touch time per minute in Disney (min. 20 mpg), eight minutes of Kurucs-Allen in Boston game, eight minutes of Johnson-Chiozza vs. BOS, LeVert and Allen continue to get heavy overlap.
*Kings starters have the worst defensive rating in the bubble at a 135.9 defensive rating in 37 minutes (min. 20 minutes). Nets starters have the third-worst defensive rating in the bubble. The Nets are also allowing the fastest defensive possessions in the bubble (and they haven’t even played the Rockets).
*Coach Luke Walton said he didn’t want the Kings to force jumpers after the loss to the Mavs. De’Aaron Fox’s minutes are way up with three of his four sitting in his top seven for the season, and he’s sixth in bubble usage rate (min. 20 minutes)
*Caris LeVert is seventh in usage rate in the bubble, and the Kings have been getting shredded by perimeter players with four players above 25 points (Luka, DeMar, Derrick White, Terrence Ross). Chris Chiozza is also among the league leaders in touch time per minute and he plays next to Tyler Johnson now, so that would help if Joe sits.
Matchup Helps: De’Aaron Fox, Richaun Holmes, Caris LeVert, Tyler Johnson
Matchup Hurts: Nobody
Orlando Magic vs. Philadelphia 76ers, 6:30 pm ET
Offensive pace on season (of 30): Magic 24th, 76ers 25th
Defensive pace on season (of 30): Magic 16th, 76ers 10th
Magic expected starters: Markelle Fultz, Evan Fournier, Wes Iwundu, James Ennis, Nikola Vucevic
76ers expected starters: Shake Milton, Josh Richardson, Tobias Harris, Al Horford, Joel Embiid
Injury news: Aaron Gordon (hamstring) is doubtful, Ben Simmons (knee) is out, Mike Scott (knee) is questionable and Glenn Robinson III (hip) is doubtful.
Magic rotation notes: Clifford said he wanted to play Gary Clark and Wes Iwundu more even before the Aaron Gordon injury news, Markelle Fultz still coming off the bench, Mo Bamba revealed he had COVID-19, Khem Birch was used as a PF earlier in the season.
76ers rotation notes: Brett Brown said he is interested in more Horford with Embiid, Shake set for much more on-ball.
*Coach Brett Brown said Embiid “needs to get as many touches as we can get him” after the Ben injuries. On the season, Embiid has a 31/15/5 per-36 line without Ben on the floor, and that has gone up to a 46/15/5 line per 36 in the bubble. He’s already first in usage rate in the bubble. Eat the chalk.
*When Ben was hurt before the shutdown, Shake Milton put up an 17.9 points, 2.8 boards, 4.4 dimes, 1.3 steals and 3.0 treys in eight games (Joel was hurt for five). Shake is also in the top 20 in touch time per game in Orlando even with Ben around.
*Markelle Fultz is second in Orlando in touch time per minute, and he extremely high 5.1 minutes of touch time in just 19.5 minutes in the last game. He has topped out at an eight-minute stint in Orlando (two sevens, as well). Fultz has a 17/5/8 line per 36 minutes in his minutes without Gordon and Isaac while Vooch is on the floor.
Injury Bonus: Terrence Ross should be a lock to close and get more volume if this game is close. D.J. Augustin was playing SG when the Magic.
Matchup Helps: Joel Embiid, Tobias Harris, Josh Richardson, Shake Milton, Markelle Fultz
Matchup Hurts: Nikola Vucevic
Washington Wizards vs. New Orleans Pelicans (B2B), 8:00 pm ET
Offensive pace on season (of 30): Wizards 4th, Pelicans 3rd
Defensive pace on season (of 30): Wizards 7th, Pelicans 14th
Wizards expected starters: Ish Smith, Troy Brown Jr., Isaac Bonga, Rui Hachimura, Thomas Bryant
Pelicans expected starters: Lonzo Ball, Jrue Holiday, Brandon Ingram, Zion Williamson, Derrick Favors
Injury news: Garrison Mathews (NWT) is out, and the Pelicans are on a B2B.
Wizards rotation notes: Scott Brooks said he could start Troy Brown at PG and it would likely be next to Shabazz Napier, Ish and Napier had zero minutes of overlap for the first time in the bubble and it’s been trending down (6, 5, 2, 0).
Pelicans rotation notes: Gentry said he will see how it goes for the back-to-back game today, starting lineup is getting smashed in the bubble (-23.4, was second-best lineup pre bubble among lineups with 100+ minutes), Hart’s minutes have increased to 24.0 per game in last two.
*Josh Hart still leads the bubble in TS% at 85.1 (min. 20 minutes), and Gentry said earlier this week “it’s tough to take him out.” Gentry said after the loss to the Kings that the Pelicans don’t have a margin for error (note the B2B quote above).
*Troy Brown has scored 6.2 more points per 36 when he’s next to Napier in the bubble (56 minutes with, 75 minutes without). The Pelicans are getting torched by perimeter players so far with eight different guys scoring 20-plus points.Thomas Bryant’s minutes did dip a tad in the last game in a B2B, but they should be back up in the upper 30s.
*Like the Pelicans, the Wizards are also getting thumped by perimeter players. This is basically a must-win for both teams, so the minutes should be there for really everyone (Zion is iffy, of course).
Matchup Helps: Troy Brown, Jrue Holiday, Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram
Matchup Hurts: Nobody
Boston Celtics vs. Toronto Raptors, 9:00 pm ET
Offensive pace on season (of 30): Celtics 18th, Raptors 9th
Defensive pace on season (of 30): Celtics 18th, Raptors 27th
Celtics expected starters: Kemba Walker, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Gordon Hayward, Daniel Theis
Raptors expected starters: Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet, OG Anunoby, Pascal Siakam, Marc Gasol
Injury news: Oshae Brissett (knee) and Patrick McCaw (knee) are out.
Celtics rotation notes: Stevens said Romeo Langford is one of the team’s most solid defenders, Stevens praised Robert Williams after arguably the second-best game he’s played as a pro (at Spurs before injury).
Raptors rotation notes: Solid rotation with starters, Norman Powell, Serge Ibaka, Terence Davis II.
*Raptors starters have a bubble-best 72.5 defensive rating in a decent 56-minute sample (min. 20 minutes).
*Fred VanVleet is eight in the bubble in assist percentage even at his insane volume. FVV also lit the Celtics up on Christmas with 27, and he has three full quarters in the second half in his last three, ranking second in second-half minutes in the bubble (Dame).
*Kemba Walker looks to be almost up to speed minutes wise after getting 27 before resting in the back-to-back, and he’s fared well against the Raptors with a 27/3/3 line in three games against them this season.
Matchup Helps: Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet
Matchup Hurts: Kemba Walker, Daniel Theis, Enes Kanter
