Welcome to NBA Matchups! This column will preview the slates and focus on news, quotes, lineup combinations, trends and specific defensive matchups for players or teams. It’s really exciting stuff, and I’m looking forward to giving my best effort to try and reach the unreachable bar set by Evan Silva on the ETR NFL side.
Before we dig in, it’s important to remember that a lot of things can change in this new environment. Teams had a lot of time off, there could be some rust, a coach may have a new idea he wants to try out, there may be more blowouts, and of course there will be DNP-REST. OK, here we go!
Utah Jazz (113.3) vs. New Orleans Pelicans (110.8)
Offensive pace on season (of 30): Jazz 25th, Pelicans 3rd
Defensive pace on season (of 30): Jazz 11th, Pelicans 12th
Orlando scrimmages overall pace (of 22): Jazz 20th, Pelicans 13th
Jazz expected starters: Mike Conley, Donovan Mitchell, Joe Ingles, Royce O’Neale, Rudy Gobert
Pelicans expected starters: Lonzo Ball, Jrue Holiday, Brandon Ingram, Zion Williamson (GTD), Derrick Favors
Injury news: Zion Williamson is listed as questionable as a game-time decision after practicing on Wednesday, Bojan Bogdanovic (wrist) will not be playing in Orlando.
Jazz rotation notes: The Jazz subbed in Jordan Clarkson first in each of their three Disney scrimmages, Georges Niang was first forward sub in scrimmages (for O’Neale twice, Ingles once), Tony Bradley had 12 minutes of overlap with Rudy Gobert in scrimmages, Emmanuel Mudiay was squeezed out of first-half rotation in first scrimmage, Mitchell had 33.3% of scrimmage minutes without Conley (Conley 27.5% without Mitchell), Gobert, Mitchell, Conley and Ingles had a grand total of just 36 minutes together while without Bojan in the regular season.
Pelicans rotation notes: Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Frank Jackson swapped rotation spots in the last two scrimmages, Jaxson Hayes subbed in for Favors in last two scrimmages (Melli in first), Nicolo Melli played 68.6% of his minutes as a PF (35.2% with Favors, 33.6% with Hayes), Lonzo had just 20.3% of his scrimmage minutes without Jrue (Jrue 18.9% without Lonzo).
The headline here is Zion, who will have to deal with the medical staff regarding his playing time. Of course, Zion said he wants to play. “My body feels fine,” he added. It’s the first game in the restart and the league is featuring Zion in ads, so it would be a pretty big shock to see him sit out. In three games against the Jazz, Ingram absolutely torched them to the tune of 39.0 points per game, but Jrue did miss two of those and Zion missed all three. Ingram does shoot the ball worse with Zion on the floor and gets an obvious hit to his usage rate. Lonzo is actually second in the NBA in touches per game in 2020 (Jokic), and don’t forget how ridiculously on fire he was in his last five (21/8/8, 46.5 FD points). Lonzo’s per-minute fantasy output increases significantly with Zion thanks to more boards, dimes, steals, blocks, treys, pace and scoring efficiency (also a +15.2 net rating with, -4.0 without). Prior to Zion leaving Orlando, the Pelicans constantly talked up how in shape everyone is, suggesting they may want to run more. Jrue also really fills it up across the board with Zion, and his shot selection is elite with a ton of makes at the rim.
The Jazz are actually the No. 1 offense in the 2020 part of the year and were really clicking on that side of the ball. Of course, losing Bojan Bogdanovic is a huge blow. The Pelicans can be a bit turnover prone with a second-ranked 16.3 turnovers per game, and it gets even worse with Zion on the floor. The Pelicans also get slayed on drives, allowing a second-ranked 29.5 points per game off drives (Wolves) while also ranking second in points per drive allowed (Suns). They’ve had some trouble protecting the paint and ranked second in the NBA in makes at the rim allowed per game (Cavs), which sets up the Jazz scorers extremely well in this one. Donovan Mitchell is being instructed to look to pass more, and the extra ball-handling should be a good thing even if he has to go up against Jrue Holiday. Clarkson should have a big advantage to score with many of his minutes likely coming without Favors on the court, and Clarkson was actually tied with Bojan for points scored in the last 13 games. Mike Conley has been a disaster as a scorer, and Conley did say it feels like a “whole new season” for him right now. Gobert also said the Jazz “need this Mike Conley” on Wednesday. Gobert should also be able to take advantage of the weak interior defense, and he’ll have the narrative of a revenge game after his positive COVID-19 test shut the NBA down. Ingles should have a favorable matchup on him against Brandon Ingram, but he was a bit passive in the scrimmages. The minutes will be there and he will offer multiple-category upside.
LA Clippers (111) vs. Los Angeles Lakers (115)
Offensive pace on season: Clippers 5th, Lakers 10th
Defensive pace on season: Clippers 20th, Lakers 19th
Orlando scrimmages overall pace: Clippers 21st, Lakers 19th
Clippers expected starters: Patrick Beverley (Q), Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, Marcus Morris, Ivica Zubac
Lakers expected starters: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Danny Green, LeBron James (P), Anthony Davis (GTD), JaVale McGee
Injury news: Patrick Beverley (personal) is listed as questionable, Montrezl Harrell (personal) is out, Lou Williams (chicken wings) is in quarantine and will not play, Anthony Davis (eye) is listed as questionable, Rajon Rondo (thumb) is out for multiple weeks, Avery Bradley (personal) will not be playing in Orlando, LeBron James (groin) is probable, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (ribs) and Kyle Kuzma (ankle) are also probable.
Clippers rotation notes: JaMychal Green has 100 minutes without another center next to him this season (57 with Patrick Patterson), Green was used as a center more in scrimmages over Patterson (Zubac did only play one game), Amir Coffey subbed in for Reggie Jackson in the first and third scrimmage games (Terance Mann other one, Coffey had first-quarter sub for PG in second game), Paul George played the whole first quarter in third scrimmage.
Lakers rotation notes: Kyle Kuzma was first sub for KCP in the dress rehearsal game and before AD got hurt, Alex Caruso subbed in for LeBron when both were available in what is essentially the backup PG role, AD has 38.4% of his minutes at center this season, J.R. Smith was ahead of Dion Waiters in the dress rehearsal game (J.R. subbed in for JaVale).
Paul George said he had “some insecurities” on his shoulder earlier this season, but he has said he’s better now and it shows. George had a 63.0 eFG% on his 27 jumpers in the preseason (way up from 47.2 in season), and he figures to benefit without Lou. Per 36 without Lou and with Kawhi, PG was at a per-36 line of 25/7/5 on a 28.9 usage rate and 55.2 TS% (555 minutes). When he will get minutes without Kawhi, PG could really eat based on his per-36 line of 38/8/7 with a 40.6 usage rate and 63.3 TS% (174 minutes, was at just 15/6/4 in 205 minutes with Lou and Kawhi). In previous matchups, the Clippers had really mixed it up on how they can defend AD. In the last game just days before the shutdown, they did feel comfortable with Marcus Morris on him while Kawhi was actually the No. 2 option on guarding his FGAs in halfcourt sets during that game (Harrell third). Considering the lack of guard depth, Morris should find his minutes very safe. After that, you’d have to think there’s a decent amount of JaMychal Green. The Lakers rarely close with their center in the clutch (Howard 38 minutes, JaVale 10, LeBron 97, AD 87), so J-Myke at the five to close seems like a decent bet if it’s a tight contest. Ivica Zubac has a grand total of two clutch minutes this season (Harrell leads team at 102). Unlike PG, Kawhi did not have his jumper in Disney, putting up a brutal 29.3 eFG% on his 41 jumpers. However, even with PG next to him in the last two games against the Lakers, Kawhi did ball out with a 31/7/3 line on a 70.4 TS%. When PG is out there next to him this season, Kawhi actually scores fewer points per 36 without Lou-Will than with him, which suggests it’s PG who benefits more from the absence of Lou Will. Moving to the guards, Pat-Bev was “upgraded” today, so he should at least be out there and starting. If not, it will be Reggie Jackson in the first unit, and it would likely be Amir Coffey backing him up. Coach Doc Rivers said it will be “impossible” for Landry Shamet to play big minutes. “Landry has been off for three months, and now he’s going to practice the next two [days] and we’re going to throw him into an NBA real game?” Rivers said. “That’s asking a lot. So, I’m in no hurry with Landry. I’m going to be patient. If he plays great, great. If he doesn’t, that’s fine too.” Rodney McGruder is probably going to sub in for Kawhi in the first quarter, and Shamet may only sub in for PG-13 after he plays his big first-quarter minutes.
We’re going under the assumption AD is a full go here. AD has a potential advantage with the Clips thin up front, and he played decent against the Clippers in three games with 47.8 FD points per game. Only getting 1.25 games in scrimmages could make him a dicey play, but maybe the Clippers focus more on limiting LeBron. The Clippers do have a solid interior defense, but they have been a bit vulnerable when teams can attack from the outside. They’re second in the NBA in percentage of paint points scored via drives (Wolves), but it may be tougher for LeBron with a likely high dose of Kawhi in his way. LeBron has struggled with efficiency against the Clippers at just a 42.5 eFG% in three games (56 eFG% on the season), but he looked outstanding in the scrimmages with a top-five usage rate (min 15 mpg, two-plus games) and of course he’s going to want to shine with the spotlight on him. Even with poor shooting, LeBron’s well-rounded line was still able to get him to 51.3 FD points per game in those three. Dion Waiters was also chucking in Disney with a seventh-ranked usage rate among same qualifiers mentioned for LeBron, but J.R looks to be more tied to Danny Green’s minutes to get him more playing time.
