We’re into Game 6 and this is the 13th playoff game for the Nuggets and the 12th for the Clippers. Both these coaches are also pretty stubborn in their ways with only a few adjustments throughout the series, and even in the last series. We know who is going to start, and we have a pretty good idea of the bench units each game.
Denver Nuggets vs. LA Clippers (-8.5), 1:00 pm ET
Team totals: Nuggets 102.8, Clippers 111.3
Injury News: Will Barton (knee) and Vlatko Cancar (foot) remain out.
Clippers Expected Starters: Patrick Beverley, Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, Marcus Morris, Ivica Zubac
Nuggets Expected Starters: Jamal Murray, Gary Harris, Jerami Grant, Paul Millsap, Nikola Jokic
Nuggets Rotation Notes: Michael Porter Jr. played the final 13 minutes with Jamal Murray (+19 in that time), Paul Millsap played the full third.
Clippers Rotation Notes: Zubac closed again, Reggie Jackson bumped out again, Doc continues to run his second unit with PG, Lou Williams, JaMychal Green, Montrezl Harrell and Landry Shamet in the minutes Kawhi sits, Beverley’s minutes expected to drop (more below).
Doc Quotes: On the fourth-quarter letdown, he said the defense gambled too much and the ball wasn’t moving on offense. Rivers said the team lost its discipline on defense, and it wasn’t as bad on offense. He said the Nuggets didn’t really do anything different with Millsap and that he just played great. Rivers said “the rotations got messed up” in the fourth quarter, and that when Kawhi Leonard went off the floor, the game fell apart.
Malone Quotes: He said the Nuggets knew in the first half that their play wasn’t good enough, and that the defense was great with some “timely offense” in the fourth. He said Michael Porter Jr. hit some big shots with some “clutch rebounds,” and he said Millsap was “huge for us tonight” with big plays. He said MPJ has shown a lot of growth on the defensive end and he understands the importance of playing both ends.
*The Clippers defended Jamal Murray extremely well for most of the game, contesting him on 14 of 25 shots (4-of-14 contested, 5-of-11 uncontested). Murray was absurd in the Jazz series on pullup shots, turning in a 69.0 eFG% on 84 attempts. In the Clippers series, he’s at 38.5 eFG%. Murray was extremely aggressive in Game 5 with his series-high 30.3 usage rate after sitting at 23.4 in the first four, and he was chucking early with a 40.9 usage rate in the first. He might be firing again, but don’t expect much efficiency.
*Nikola Jokic has been pretty good in elimination games, averaging 25.8 points, 11.0 boards and 5.7 dimes over those six (H/T @FastbreakBreak). As mentioned back in the Jazz series, he was getting really unlucky on rebounding chances, and that’s completely changed here with 11-plus boards in five of his last six at 12.0 per game in that span. Nothing really new here except that he’s lit up Harrell with a 78.6 eFG% on 14 attempts (53.0 eFG% on 49 vs. Zubac). Joker was even asked about it on Saturday. “They’re completely different types of defenders,” he said. “Zubac is bigger taller. He’s covering the paint really good. I can’t shoot over him that easy. And Harrell is a strong guy who is always into my body.”
*Harrell is really hurting the Clippers in this series. In the playoffs, the Clippers have a +11.1 in minutes with Nikola Jokic and Ivica Zubac on the floor (124 minutes). The Clippers have a -11.6 net rating in minutes with Jokic and Montrezl Harrell on the floor (45 minutes). It’s still -8.1 with Kawhi and Harrell vs. Joker. Doc mentioned that the Clippers fell off a bit in those minutes when Harrell was out there without Kawhi, so he probably only has mid-teens minutes headed his way.
*Nothing really new on the Kawhi and PG-13 front. We know that Jerami Grant is going to be matched with Kawhi as much as possible, and the same for Gary Harris on George. Just from the interesting department here: In the playoffs, Paul George has a 40.7 3P% off Kawhi passes (11/27). He’s at 32.8% off passes from the other Clippers in the playoffs. A little luck involved, but you’d assume PG is getting a higher-quality look (assisted on eight of 10 makes). George has been effective against defense from Harris (67.9 eFG%) and Craig (64.3 eFG%). His usage rate has trended down a bit in the last two. As mentioned in the last Matchups, you’d think Rivers goes to Kawhi heavy again after his line and how important he was per Rivers’ post-game presser. “You could tell he was the one guy that’s used to closing out a series,” Rivers said about Leonard after the Dallas series.
*Doc had another presser on Saturday with some good notes, especially on Patrick Beverley. “We played him five minutes or so more than his minutes restriction. He’s nowhere near the minutes we could use him — and that obviously hurts us,” he said. He also talked about how he wasn’t mad about just the second-half collapse, and mentioned he was mad at half. “I was frustrated long before (the Nuggets’ run),” he said. “I was frustrated at halftime because I thought we should have been up way more. We didn’t allow ourselves to be great yesterday.“
*Just a quick side note, Lou Williams has been horrible lately. With Harrell also struggling, there’s less incentive to play Lou. Maybe his minutes could go up if Beverley is limited, but you might want to look at Landry Shamet.
Matchup Helps: Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, Nikola Jokic, Landry Shamet, Ivica Zubac
Matchup Hurts: Jamal Murray, Patrick Beverley, Lou Williams, Montrezl Harrell
