We have one team in for the Conference Finals with the Heat taking out the Bucks, and we’re getting up there on seeing these teams in the playoffs. Today, we’ll see the Nuggets for the 11th time in the playoffs while the Celtics and Raptors will play their 10th game of the playoffs. Generally, there haven’t been too many slate-altering rotation changes for most of these teams, but obviously injuries like Serge Ibaka (ankle) and others throughout the playoffs can open up a little edge.
Toronto Raptors vs. Boston Celtics (-3.5), 6:30 pm ET
Team totals: Raptors 102.8, Celtics 106.3
Injury News: Serge Ibaka (ankle) is questionable, Gordon Hayward and Javonte Green remain without a target date, Vincent Poirier (personal) is out, Oshae Brissett and Patrick McCaw are out.
Raptors Expected Starters: Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet, O.G. Anunoby, Pascal Siakam, Marc Gasol
Celtics Expected Starters: Kemba Walker, Marcus Smart, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Daniel Theis
Raptors Rotation Notes: Nurse pulled the plug early with no Lowry in 4Q at all, Siakam sat out the final 18, Gasol out final 21, Norman Powell got a longer leash in the first half due to offensive troubles.
Celtics Rotation Notes: Tatum may have been looking at 23.2 second-half minutes if not for garbage time, five minutes of Grant Williams at the five in Game 5 (fives are wild!), Brad Wanamaker played the full second quarter (Tatum foul trouble, Kemba and Jaylen 11 2Q minutes).
*The Raptors were basically extinct in the first half at just 35 points, and not surprisingly they went 2-of-7 on wide-open treys in the first half. First-half shooting has continued to be a problem at a sub-44 eFG% from Game 3-5, but Game 5 was a disaster at a 34.9 eFG% to put them right at the Game 1 debacle of 34.4 eFG% (only had one game in the regular season lower than 34.4). They didn’t even get help at the line with a 38.3 TS% in Game 5 in the first half. The Celtics have really cut down on percentage of points off turnovers at a sub-eight percentage in each of the last two games (only happened three times all regular season and in previous playoff games).
*The big news is Serge Ibaka, who was in a boot at media availability on Tuesday and talked about his injury. “I will see how I wake up tomorrow, because it’s different,” Ibaka said. “When it happened last night, I felt like I could still play. Then today, this morning, it changed a little bit. So let’s see tomorrow when I wake up.” Serge went down in the fourth quarter just before garbage time, so we didn’t get much info. If he’s out, you’d think we get some decent amount of Chris Boucher, but don’t be so sure. We’ve seen coach Nick Nurse roll with Rondae Hollis-Jefferson next to Pascal Siakam in the regular season, and Siakam is at 10 minutes as a five in the playoffs without even factoring in the Serge injury (four minutes in Game 5, only one minute Game 1-4, five minutes in Nets series).
*The Celtics also made a really big defensive adjustment in Game 5, putting Marcus Smart on Kyle Lowry early. In 18.4 partial possessions, Lowry didn’t have any shots, free throws or assists against Smart in Game 5. In the series, Lowry has just six points and two dimes in 55.5 partial possessions against Smart — that’s bad. You’d think that Lowry is set for a lot of Smart here after its success in Game 5.
*Kemba continues to have FVV’s number on D, limiting him to 1-of-5 shooting in 20.9 partial possessions in Game 5. He’s at just 8-of-31 in 129.4 partial possessions on the season (next-closest Celtic is Smart at 37.1 partial possessions, 2-of-7 from field). Kemba also has locked down FVV all season at 5-of-24 from the field in 80.1 partial possessions, too. Gotta give Kemba props here and FVV might have his hands full again, and frankly Kemba’s defense hasn’t gotten enough credit in this series.
*Speaking of Kemba, he really turned up the aggression in Game 5, scoring 12 points in the paint for 57.2% of his point total. That’s his highest percentage of the playoffs and would be the fourth-highest for any game in the 2019-20 season. Those 12 points in Game 5 also came without any fastbreak points, and Kemba scored 13 points off his 16 drives for one of his most efficient driving games of the playoffs to more than double his output in the playoffs (6.4 per game in previous eight, five in previous Raptors playoff games). It’s still a really tough matchup for him overall, but Kemba looking a little more like Charlotte Kemba is a good thing. He might not be able to do it again, though.
*Jaylen Brown also really had it cooking in Game 5 with his 68.3 TS% for 27 points, both his highest since Game 1 of the Nets series. He destroyed the Raptors off ball with eight of his 10 makes coming off an assist for his highest of the playoffs with six makes off no dribbles. The Raptors just didn’t defend him well with 11 uncontested shots, and he made ‘em when guarded at 5-of-7 on contested. He’s getting great looks overall and offers upside.
*Jayson Tatum hasn’t exactly lit it up in the series, and he did have a minor wrist issue and said it’s “alright” after just falling on it. He had some bad luck in Game 5 with a few missed bunnies, going just 2-of-6 at the rim. He does have a tough matchup, but he’s certainly capable of stepping up.
Matchup Helps: Jaylen Brown, Daniel Theis, Marcus Smart, Pascal Siakam
Matchup Hurts: Fred VanVleet, Kyle Lowry (still like both in DFS because they’re gonna play huge minutes)
LA Clippers (-8) vs. Denver Nuggets, 9:00 pm ET
Team totals: Clippers 114.3, Nuggets 106.3
Injury News: Will Barton (knee) and Vlatko Cancar (foot) remain out.
Clippers Expected Starters: Patrick Beverley, Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, Marcus Morris, Ivica Zubac
Nuggets Expected Starters: Jamal Murray, Gary Harris, Jerami Grant, Paul Millsap, Nikola Jokic
Clippers Rotation Notes: Marcus Morris played 20 second-half minutes (Kawhi 22, George 20, Lou 14), Montrezl Harrell saw most of the closing center minutes, 19 minutes of JaMychal Green at the five in series (five minutes in Game 3).
Nuggets Rotation Notes: Huge minutes for Jerami Grant again (42) and he has 107 of 108 minutes across from Kawhi in this series, Gary Harris has 64 of 64 minutes across from Paul George in this series, Millsap pulled for Michael Porter Jr. for final two minutes.
Doc Quotes: Doc said PG’s defense was the key over his 32 points, and he talked up Lou Williams’ improvement on defense with steals. Rivers was most upset with the lack of offensive rebounding and “a lot of mental lapses” on defense. After saying the starters didn’t set the table in Game 2, he said they were better and PG “really set the tone.” Rivers said Pat Beverley “was huge” down the stretch despite how the net rating number was bad — said he ignores net rating sometimes. Rivers said Zubac was “great tonight” and he “loved his physicality overall.”
Malone Quotes: Malone was upset by his closing output in each half (note: I think he talks about the end of the second quarter in almost every post-game presser). Malone said the Clippers’ fast-break points were “unacceptable” from his team. Malone said the defense wasn’t there like it was in Game 2, and all those makes made it hard on their offense because the the Clippers can get set. Malone said he can tell Jamal Murray “is starting to get down on himself.” Malone said he swapped out Millsap for Michael Porter Jr. after they were struggling to make shots. He was asked about MPJ’s great game and didn’t exactly have a positive answer after a loss. “I get it. Everyone wants to talk about Michael Porter. We lost tonight. We didn’t win the game, we have to regroup and get ready for Game 4,” he said, before he walked off the presser.
*Paul George really just dominated in any aspect on both ends. He was excellent on contested shots (4-of-6) and uncontested shots (8-of-12) in Game 3. As great as Gary Harris can be, Paul George getting higher shot quality and being aggressive like he has been gives him a great floor.
*Kawhi also really took over against Jerami Grant at 7-of-11 from the field in Game 5. Besides Game 2’s 1-of-7 on contested shots for Kawhi, he’s basically been unguardable even on “tough” shots. Unlike in Game 2, the Clippers know what defense is coming at Kawhi and PG, so they should be ready to perform.
*On the Nuggets side, we pretty much know what to expect. We know the Nuggets will try to get Jokic the ball down low to body Zubac and Montrezl Harrell. Jamal Murray will continue to have some brutal matchups in this series, and Grant and Harris will see huge minutes for defensive purposes on Kawhi and PG, respectively.
*Montrezl Harrell hasn’t been great here. Jokic has an efficient 13 points in just 26.8 partial possessions against Harrell in the playoffs. Zubac hasn’t been much better at 39 points on 15-of-28 from the field in 63.1 partial possessions. The Clippers are somehow -6.3 in net rating with Trezz on the court and +18.8 without him in the playoffs (-10.6 with Lou Will). He had one of his better games on the stat sheet in Game 3, but it’s hard to buy him getting up there in playing time.
Matchup Helps: Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, Nikola Jokic, Marcus Morris, Jerami Grant, Gary Harris
Matchup Hurts: Jamal Murray, Monte Morris, Montrezl Harrell
