Welcome back for the fourth NFL GPP Leverage column of the season. If you missed the Week 1 edition of GPP Leverage, I recommend you take a minute to read the intro from Week 1 to get a feel for the goals of this column.
The Week 3 main slate was a great example of the power of correlation within our lineups. Only 19 players scored over 25 points on DraftKings last week, and even on a 12-game slate, 16 of the 19 (84%) players were concentrated in just six of the 12 (50%) games:
- Bears vs Colts: RB Jonathan Taylor, WR Rome Odunze, TE Cole Kmet. Note that QB Caleb Williams finished with 23.32 points.
- Panthers vs Raiders: QB Andy Dalton, RB Chuba Hubbard, WR Diontae Johnson. Note that WRs Tre Tucker and Jakobi Meyers also finished with 22.6 and 21.2 points, respectively.
- Saints vs Eagles: RB Saquon Barkley, TE Dallas Goedert.
- Giants vs Browns: WR Amari Cooper, WR Malik Nabers.
- 49ers vs Rams: QB Brock Purdy, RB Kyren Williams, WR Jauan Jennings.
- Cowboys vs Ravens: QB Dak Prescott, QB Lamar Jackson, RB Derrick Henry.
It will certainly not be the case that scoring is always as concentrated and correlated as it was in Week 3. But with scoring down across the NFL this year, I believe this is the best environment there’s ever been for the use of stacking, mini-correlations, and onslaughts. Correlating our lineups has always been a strong strategy in DFS because it reduces the number of predictions that we need to get right, and this strategy is even more viable when many games turn out to be duds for fantasy. If our lineups have overweight positions in specific games, and then those games are among only a handful that provide fantasy-rich environments, we have naturally gained positive leverage against the field.
As a result, here in Week 4, I want to highlight some spots where we can gain leverage from either aggressively attacking or fading specific games. Week 4 also sets up well for the late-swap themes we discussed in the Week 3 edition of GPP Leverage, as much of the anticipated chalk this week will come in the late window of games.
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