Herzig’s Best Ball Portfolio

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At the time of this writing, I have drafted 75 BBM teams – halfway to maxing out the 150. While I have focused my articles predominantly on strategy, I understand people also want to see how I am actually drafting. Thus, this article gives a peak into my BBM portfolio. You can see what roster constructions I’ve been drafting, which players I am highest and lowest on, as well as which teams I’ve been attacking. It is a very scary thing to share this with the world and makes me quite vulnerable (i.e., you all get to see my gross 9% Josh Jacobs ownership), but I believe this process will help me improve and hopefully you all will as well.

Roster Construction

The above roster constructions are in the format of QB – RB – WR – TE. I have grown fond of the 2-5-9-2 construction as I think there is opportunity to find value near the end of the draft with RBs. Those teams usually comprise of one or two early RBs, and then three RBs in the 11th or later. Worth noting though that despite my T-1 highest-owned construction having five RBs, 61% of my teams have exactly four RBs as that is still the construction I’m targeting.

Takeaways:

• My two-QB to three-QB ratio is 69% / 31%
• 61% of my teams have exactly four RBs
• 83% of my teams have at least nine WRs
• My two-TE to three-TE ratio is 65% / 35%

Quarterbacks

Upon looking at this, I was a bit surprised to see which QBs I have the highest ownership of in my portfolio. My top guys are relatively immobile QBs and go against my strategy of trying to draft QBs with rushing upside. I’ve tried to dig a bit deeper into this and came up with a few conclusions.

1. I’ve been predominantly getting these guys substantially past their ADP, including as much as nine spots past ADP for Tom Brady. I’m also personally higher than market on Matt Ryan because I think people are overweighting the loss of Julio and not accounting for the lack of run game. This team is going to be in shootouts and throwing a ton.
2. Stack partners. Thielen, Godwin, and Jarvis are three of my highest-owned WRs (23%, 20%, and 19% respectively), and each of those have the QB drafted after the WR which makes for an easier stack. I also have 19% Kareem Hunt which increases my willingness to draft Baker.
3. It’s easier to get ADP value with QBs once you own their stack partners than first owning the QB and trying to get ADP value with their receivers. Because of this, I think I’ve been more likely to value hunt and that’s where these non-rushing QBs fall to me.
4. I am probably going to be trying to correct this a bit in my next 75 drafts and grab more of the QBs with rushing upside.

Running backs