Dynasty Outlook
March 8
Walker is currently our second favorite running back prospect for rookie drafts, and RB15 in our overall dynasty ranks. He is likely to step into an immediate early-down and goal-line role, which would be very fantasy-friendly in the right offense. In order to hit his fantasy ceiling, Walker will have to prove to teams that he is a capable pass catcher, though it is worth noting that dominant early-down backs can usually secure some receptions simply by being on the field. The fact that he comps to someone like Le’Veon Bell gives us a glimpse of just how high that ceiling can be.
Profile Summary
Kenneth Walker is difficult to project with confidence in the passing game due to a lack of involvement in college. As we’ve often stated, that doesn’t mean he is incapable of playing all three downs. We just haven’t seen it. What we do know is that he is an excellent early-down performer who can find the end zone frequently. He tested fast, and scouts noted his ability to force missed tackles both on film and the stat sheet. He should be either the first or second RB off the board — likely in Round 2.
Vitals
Age (as of 12/31/21) — 21.2
Experience — 3 years
Height — 69.25 inches
Weight — 211 pounds
Hand Size — 9.5 inches
Arm Length — 30.375 inches
Wingspan — 73 inches
Forty — 4.38 seconds
Vertical — 34 inches
Broad — 122 inches
By the Numbers
Walker started his career at Wake Forest, where he was the more productive half of a backfield tandem in each of his first two seasons. After opting out of the end of the 2020 season due to COVID concerns, he decided to transfer to Michigan State, where he became the centerpiece of the offense for the Spartans. It was a final season that resulted in not just a breakout, but being a Heisman finalist.
Though he was not always a featured player, Walker has always shown a propensity for scoring TDs. He had 13 in seven games in 2020, and another 19 in 2021. Receiving opportunities has been scant for Walker. Though Michigan State is a low-volume passing offense, his production is limited even on a per-attempt scale. He has just 19 total receptions in three seasons, and it remains the biggest question mark on his profile.
What the Scouts are Saying
Lance Zierlein noted the same potential pitfalls as a receiver with Walker.
Walker is a compact back with a very powerful, sturdy base. He can find his own yards with twitchy directional change when run-blocking breaks down and possesses plus-rated contact balance to add on to his yardage throughout the game. Walker is a very determined runner who is more reactive than instinctive, which leads to wild shifts in his rush track. He can handle a RB1 workload in terms of carries but needs work as a third-down option. Walker would benefit from better rush-track discipline, but his explosiveness and unpredictable style should still lead to success as a future starter.
Dane Brugler gives us reason to believe that — as a runner — Walker may be the best talent in this class.
There is no consensus RB1 in this draft class, but if there is a running back who might be considered in the first round, it should be Walker. With his vision and contact balance, he generates impressive burst off his plant foot to dart away from trouble and break tackles (led the FBS with 89 forced missed tackles in 2021). He must improve as a pass catcher and pass protector, but his instinctive ability to set up his cuts and create yardage will translate to the pro game.
Draft Projection
Walker currently has an expected draft position of 57.1 on Grinding the Mocks, which sources mock drafts around the interwebs. NFL Mock Draft Database, a similar service, has him 55th overall. Brugler has Walker 40th on his big board, while he is not ranked in Daniel Jeremiah’s top 50. After smashing the 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine (4.38), Walker seems primed to come off the board somewhere in Round 2.
Comparable Players
I use Principal Component Analysis to evaluate RB prospects. In simplest terms, this kind of analysis looks at relevant data points to find the closest comparable RBs in past drafts. I prefer this to a model output — which yields only a single result — as it can display the possible range of outcomes for a prospect.
Note that the analysis itself isn’t telling us how good a player is; it is simply returning the most similar players. It is then up to us to layer in context and past results to see how good we think this player may be.
Walker’s comps are predictably littered with early-down backs who were not major contributors in passing situations. Players such as Laurence Maroney, Montee Ball, and Ronald Jones never developed into being consistent pass catchers in their times in the league, while J.K. Dobbins appears to be on a similar path. These backs have their upside limited at the next level for fantasy.
Fortunately, we can see that Walker’s lack of pass catching in college does not doom him to that fate. Lamar Miller and Miles Sanders became much more consistent pass catchers in the NFL (though Sanders didn’t do much this season), with Le’Veon Bell (another Spartan) showing up as what could happen if everything breaks right.
