Large-Field GPP Breakdown: Genesis Invitational

Never wrong, just early. Last week at Pebble Beach marked another flop lag performance from my flag plant of the previous week, as Collin Morikawa won his first tournament in almost three years. Too bad I didn’t have 44% of him like I did the week before, but either way, I still feel confident about my process. Anyways, it looked like a decent week for ETR subs, and I’m hearing that FanDuel is slowly improving their contests again. Maybe my friend Sky can start to win again on the blue site. In the contributor contest, Sam and I are tied for last at -$600 in profit, with Sky holding an early lead on us. We’ve decided that the punishment will be Cody’s suggestion of the “raw dog,” where the loser will have to hand-build a 150 set. The caveat: You can reduce the number of lineups you have to hand-build by eating a hot dog (three lineups per hot dog). I’d better not lose this year.

Pebble Beach – Recap

For a while there, I thought the winner might be Sky’s friend, JShiffy, with a Scottie Scheffler lineup. But Sepp Straka eagled the last hole to push a bunch of non-Scottie lineups above him, unfortunately. Every week where Scheffler plays, we get more information on how the field plays him in various contests. His ownership came down a little from projected, but not too much, landing in the mid-20s across contests. Remember, it was a limited field last week with no cut. This is important for this week. Here are some characteristics from the winning lineup at Pebble:

• It featured a Xander Schauffele + Tommy Fleetwood start, showing that we don’t have to be perfect to win the lotto. Xander ended up at T19, but because of the types of combinations that you could make with Fleetwood, he ended up in the winning lineup. This is an easy reminder that PGA DFS does not require perfection, but it does require a very specific set of scenarios. We should stop thinking about “what a guy needs to do to be optimal” and instead think about the overall lineup that we’re playing players in. 
• The lineup came in at 62% cumulative ownership, lower than the 70-90% range that I normally target in limited-field events. That being said, I did call out that non-Scottie lineups would likely struggle to come in as high as 70%, so this lineup was possible in my MME set. 

Let’s remember some of these results as we head into this week at Riviera.

Genesis Invitational – Preview