Betting into an extremely liquid market such as NFL sides and totals is a very difficult endeavor. Lines move to efficiency very quickly and can’t be beat at -110 by the overwhelming majority of bettors.
However, player props are extremely beatable. As hardcore fantasy players, we are actually putting more time and thought into player outlooks than the oddsmakers. And since the limits on these player props are typically low, a lot of books don’t mind leaving up some soft lines. It’s essentially advertising to get people into their book. Don’t use player props as a guide for your DFS or season-long selections. Instead, we should be seeking out soft player props to bet.
The goal of this article isn’t to “tout” picks; it’s to help you develop your own process by showing you mine. You may not be able to get these lines at your book. The general idea is simple: Take a projection you’re confident in and compare it to the available line. After that, the key is to add in our knowledge of player usage to gain a bigger edge.
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Levitan’s Published Player Prop History
2019 NFL In-Season Record: 50-36, +$963
2020 NFL Season-Long Record: 7-2, +$454
2020 NFL In-Season Record: 55-34, +$1907
2020-21 NBA In-Season Record: 111-82, +$1817
2021-22 NBA In-Season Record: 59-33, +$2243 (through Nov. 1. Click here to subscribe to NBA props)
2021 NFL In-Season Record: 75-44: +$2582 (through Week 8)
* Won/lost dollar amount is based on betting to win $100 on each favored prop. And risking $100 on each underdog prop.
1. Mike White pass attempts
Line: 37.5 attempts
Mean Projection: 35.9 attempts
Book: Caesar’s (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-110)
Date: November 2, 6:18pm ET
Notes: This is a very big number for anyone — let alone Jets QB Mike White facing a team in the Colts which prefers to play slow.
2. Myles Gaskin rush yards
Line: 45.5 yards
Mean Projection: 66.2 yards
Book: PointsBet (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-115)
Date: November 3, 5:13pm ET
Notes: The market is underestimating the impact of Malcolm Brown’s absence on Gaskin’s rush share. Salvon Ahmed and Patrick Laird are primarily pass-down players. We are projecting a ton of rush attempts for the Dolphins against the Texans.
3. Boston Scott rush yards
Line: 50.5 yards
Mean Projection: 40.5 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: November 4, 10:03am ET
Notes: The market assumes Scott has a lock on base work for Eagles rushing. We’re not so sure, as Jordan Howard and Kenny Gainwell can mix in at any time. Also, the Eagles could get behind easily in this game, leading to mostly Gainwell.
4. Jamison Crowder receiving yards
Line: 61.5 yards
Mean Projection: 52.5 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: November 4, 10:25am ET
Notes: Another bet against some Mike White regression. We feel good about our YPT and target share projections on Crowder.
5. Austin Ekeler receiving yards
Line: 47.5 yards
Mean Projection: 40.4 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: November 4, 1:44pm ET
Notes: A no-brainer projection bet. Ekeler has a wild range of outcomes in his targets, dependent on game flow and defensive priorities.
6. Zay Jones receptions
Line: 2.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 2.1 receptions
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (+110)
Date: November 4, 4:24pm ET
Notes: Zay Jones will step into some version of the Henry Ruggs role, but with far less talent and target-earning ability.
7. Dan Arnold receiving yards
Line: 30.5 yards
Mean Projection: 45.8 yards
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-114)
Date: November 4, 4:37pm ET
Notes: We’ve triple-checked our inputs on Arnold and the Jags offense. And feel strong about the projection. Arnold’s role is quietly among the best for a tight in the league.
8. Nyheim Hines rushing yards
Line: 13.5 yards
Mean Projection: 21.1 yards
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-110)
Date: November 4, 7:14pm ET
Notes: Marlon Mack is a healthy scratch for Indy, opening up more rushing opportunities for Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines. Rookie Deon Jackson is the third RB for Indy and we are projecting him for slightly less work than what we had for Mack, shifting a couple extra carries to Hines.
9. Aaron Jones rushing and receiving yards
Line: 99.5 yards
Mean Projection: 80.6 yards
Book: MGM (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: November 4, 10:33pm ET
Notes: A.J. Dillon has seen his volume increase lately, plus Davante Adams is back to operate as Green Bay’s alpha wideout. With Jordan Love at quarterback, Jones faces an uphill battle to top this hefty number.
10. Davante Adams receiving yards
Line: 90.5 yards
Mean Projection: 82.2 yards
Book: FOX Bet (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-110)
Date: November 4, 10:33pm ET
Notes: This seems like a fair number for Adams when Aaron Rodgers is playing, but it’ll be Jordan Love under center for the Packers against Kansas City.
11. Teddy Bridgewater pass attempts
Line: 37.5 attempts
Mean Projection: 34.5 attempts
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: November 4, 10:33pm ET
Notes: The Broncos are heavy underdogs, but this line seems overcorrected for that. Bridgewater has only surpassed this number twice all year, and we project 34.5 pass attempts.
12. Justin Herbert pass attempts
Line: 40.5 attempts
Mean Projection: 37.9 attempts
Book: FanDuel or PointsBet (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-114)
Date: November 6, 9:39am ET
Notes: We know the Chargers are pass-centric and play fast. But 40.5 is simply an absurd line once we factor in downside of various game flows and outlier game plans.
13. Marcedes Lewis receiving yards
Line: 7.5 yards
Mean Projection: 20.5 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-110)
Date: November 6, 10:43am ET
Notes: Yes, Aaron Rodgers is out. But this line is not adjusted for Big Bob Tonyan’s absence.
14. Emmanuel Sanders receptions
Line: 4.5 catches
Mean Projection: 3.9 catches
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (+116)
Date: November 6, 10:54am ET
Notes: We expect Cole Beasley (ribs) to play. This 4.5 number is a big one given the likely game script for the Bills – a few big plays to get a big lead against the Jags and Josh Allen won’t be peppering Sanders with short balls. It’s also a spot for Allen to get Stef Diggs going.
15. Dallas Goedert receiving yards
Line: 59.5 yards
Mean Projection: 51.5 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: November 6, 11:07am ET
Notes: Goedert’s role is awesome, but this is a ton of yards for any middling tight end — let alone one playing with erratic thrower Jalen Hurts.
