I play roughly 60% of my action each week in “cash games.” Cash games refer to any contest in which roughly 50% of the field gets paid out, such as head-to-head, double up or 50/50. I try to get as much head-to-head action as I can every week and then supplement that with other cash games.
Each week, I’ll review my cash-game lineup in this space. Sometimes I’ll lose, but hopefully I’ll win more often. Either way, I’ll post it here and give you my thought process.
This was a really uncomfortable week as I really didn’t have any slam-dunk plays. I’ve actually never experienced a slate where there wasn’t a single player I was fist-pumping to roster. In weeks like this, I’m simply trying to land on a couple high-ceiling guys who can break the slate.
MY MUST PLAYS
* There were literally zero standout plays on this slate for cash, in my opinion. So I wanted to take a solid floor/ceiling combo anywhere I could get it. Yes, Christian McCaffrey’s matchup, price, and red-zone role next to Cam Newton wasn’t ideal. But I thought 20 points would go a really, really long way on this slate. And when CMC is healthy, that is the result.
MY WANT PLAYS
* The Texans D/ST as a home favorite at $2300 against wildly mistake-prone Zach Wilson and the Jets should set off alarm bells. I didn’t consider them a “must” as the Jaguars ($2200) and Falcons ($2500) were also fine. But I was almost always playing the Texans here.
* I thought Aaron Jones (GTD, knee) was truly a 50/50 call. If he was inactive, AJ Dillon would have been the best play on the slate. So it was worth starting with Dillon on my team and then swapping if Jones was active. That was easy because Darrell Henderson – a very solid play in his own right – was just $100 less than Dillon.
* Diontae Johnson is an ideal cash-game WR because his volume is simply massive. He came into this game with a mind-blowing 12+ targets in six of his last eight games. And now Juju Smith-Schuster, Eric Ebron, and Ray-Ray McCloud were all out. I had no problem at all saving the $400 from Chris Godwin down to Diontae Johnson simply thanks to reliable volume.
* I knew cash mainstays Davante Adams and Cooper Kupp were out of play at their appropriate prices. I also didn’t feel overly strong about Keenan Allen or Chris Godwin. The $5K WRs I considered were Michael Pittman and Brandin Cooks. I would have been fine with either, but slightly preferred Pittman thanks to game environment. The Bucs are the NFL’s biggest pass funnel and their offense creates plenty of catch-up scenarios for opponents. Pittman is unchallenged as the alpha for Carson Wentz.
* Given how weak the WR pool was, I was willing to take cheap shots. The one below $5K whose volume I felt best about was Laviska Shenault ($4400), thanks to Jamal Agnew’s absence and the matchup with the Falcons. It was certainly thin, but I could build a case that Shenault would see more slot snaps and the Jags would have to scheme the ball to him with DJ Chark, Agnew, and Travis Etienne all sidelined.
* My first instinct was to play Evan Engram at tight end, given the matchup with Philly and the injuries to Kyle Rudolph, Kadarius Toney, and Sterling Shepard. But he’s failed so many times before and our own Thunderdome King Mike Leone was adamant that Rob Gronkowski was the play. I did like having the Gronk/Michael Pittman mini correlation, and Gronk looked very healthy last time out. But I would have been fine with any of Gronk, Engram, or Pat Freiermuth here.
* The last 2v2 I considered was Justin Herbert and Miles Sanders vs. Cam Newton and Saquon Barkley. On the Newton/Barkley side, I would have had to play Jaguars D/ST over Texans D/ST. In the end, I decided that I did not want two Panthers in this spot against an ascending Dolphins defense. While Cam Newton did score well in his Week 11 debut, I still had major questions about his arm — there’s a reason he was on the street for so long.
As for Miles Sanders, the Eagles had Brandon Thorn’s No. 1 OL>DL mismatch. Jordan Howard was out and Sanders was another week removed from his injury. I easily preferred Sanders’ spot as a rusher, but Barkley clearly had the far superior pass-catching role. The ability to get off the 2-Panther build and play my preferred Texans D tilted the scales.
Note that the Broncos underlying defensive metrics coming into this game were really poor — they faced arguably the NFL’s worst opposing QB schedule this season. And the weather in Denver was perfect. It wasn’t an ideal setup for Herbert, but it was very strong.
Week 12 Results
I thought Cam Newton, Chris Godwin, and Evan Engram were all very fine plays on this slate for cash. I did prefer Justin Herbert, Diontae Johnson, and Rob Gronkowski — but certainly not by a lot. And in the end, that made all the difference. To win at this rate with such a low score is a testament to something everyone should grasp in DFS: Our goal is not to score the most points, it’s to beat our enemies.
Year-To-Date Results
Week 1: 124.86 points, won 70.5% of head-to-heads
Week 2: 92.88 points, won 5.7% of head-to-heads
Week 3: 151.52 points, won 63.8% of head-to-heads
Week 4: 104.92 points, won 8.1% of head-to-heads
Week 5: 187.08 points, won 82.7% of head-to-heads
Week 6: 147.98 points, won 82.3% of head-to-heads
Week 7: 163.38 points, won 88.1% of head-to-heads
Week 8: 135.62 points, won 37.0% of head-to-heads
Week 9: 127.54 points, won 81.4% of head-to-heads
Week 10: 152.74 points, won 90.0% of head-to-heads
Week 11: 109.02 points, won 55.3% of head-to-heads
Week 12: 117.32 points, won 80.1% of head-to-heads
