I play roughly 60% of my action each week in “cash games.” Cash games refer to any contest in which roughly 50% of the field gets paid out, such as head-to-head, double up or 50/50. I try to get as much head-to-head action as I can every week and then supplement that with other cash games.
Each week, I’ll review my cash-game lineup in this space. Sometimes I’ll lose, but hopefully I’ll win more often. Either way, I’ll post it here and give you my thought process.
I thought this was a relatively straightforward slate because the viable pool of cash players was small. I really only considered two QBs, one TE, one D/ST, and three RBs. There were certainly some difficult 2v2s on this slate, but generally speaking I like these kind of tight slates. There are simply more ways for my opponents to make bad errors.
MY MUST PLAYS
* I’m always trying to spend as little as possible at the low-floor, low-ceiling tight end position in cash. So when Noah Fant was placed on the COVID list early in the week, it was obvious. Albert Okwuegbunam is a freak athlete who already had a reasonable role when Fant was active. We could project near every-down work with Fant sidelined at $2600.
* I didn’t think the wide receiver position was too deep. Although Tee Higgins’ box scores haven’t been great, his underlying usage has been arguably the best on the team. With Cincy’s pass rate trending up and a bit of a pass funnel spot against the Browns, the $5300 tag was a steal.
* Ezekiel Elliott’s pass-game role has been rising sharply, giving him a very solid role in one of the NFL’s best offenses. The Cowboys were among the teams likeliest to lead the slate in TDs (or at least I thought), and we know Zeke has one of the league’s best goal-line roles. Elliott was mispriced by at least $500, if not more.
MY WANT PLAYS
* I slightly preferred Austin Ekeler ($7900) to Nick Chubb if they were the same price. Ideally, I wanted to play them both. But I did feel good about the spot for Chubb, another week removed from the calf injury and with Kareem Hunt still sidelined. At just $6700, the lack of pass-game role wasn’t as devastating to Chubb and we know the Bengals have major tackling issues.
As one of the most efficient runners in the NFL, 20 touches for Chubb at this price has a really high floor. It’s not all that different than Derrick Henry in terms of team run rate and natural talent. If we thought a healthy Chubb would have a bigger lead over D’Ernest Johnson than he had last week in usage, it’s really strong.
* Regular readers know I’m typically playing the cheapest viable option at D/ST. This week it was the Chiefs defense, who were priced as if Aaron Rodgers was starting. With Jordan Love in there, the likelihood the Chiefs could generate a big lead and force a ton of known passing situation dropbacks went way up.
* When the Tua Tagovailoa inactive news hit, I strongly considered going down to Jacoby Brissett at QB. He was only $4500, has starting QB experience this season, and was facing the Texans. It was a better spot than the other QB punts (Jordan Love, Tyrod Taylor) had.
But I just couldn’t pull the trigger on coming off Lamar Jackson in this home run spot. The Ravens’ run game is broken and dusty, Rashod Bateman gives Lamar another viable pass-game weapon on a team quietly positive in pass rate over expectation. At just $7300, Jackson was one of the most underpriced players on the slate.
* If I had gone down to Jacoby Brissett, I would have come off Kadarius Toney for Austin Ekeler. Or off of Amari Cooper for Ekeler and then the upgrade at D/ST. But I actually did like the spot for Toney (off the injury report) with Sterling Shepard out. This slot role for the Giants has been excellent on a targets per route run basis all season, and Toney has shown a big ceiling. I thought the risk of him being a headcase was worth it over Jarvis Landry or Hunter Renfrow from both a median and upside perspective. I did not think he would rotate as much as he
* I was debating Amari Cooper vs. Jaylen Waddle at just $100 difference. Once Tua was scratched, it was a no-brainer to go Cooper. But I certainly didn’t feel great about Amari, dealing with a hamstring issue and a ton of quality target competition. I did toy with some teams that went down from Amari to Rondale Moore, but I didn’t have much need for the savings.
* The other close debate was Tyreek Hill vs. Austin Ekeler at the same price in the flex. I typically side with the RB here in cash, but Hill’s target share over the last five weeks is unique. Particularly when that target share comes from Patrick Mahomes, and is to the most explosive player in the NFL. Whereas I thought Tyreek could absolutely break the slate with a 40-ball, I didn’t think Ekeler had that in him in this spot.
Week 9 Results
This was a very low-scoring week in cash as there were a ton of duds at high ownership (Amari Cooper, Zeke, Austin Ekeler, Kadarius Toney, Mike Gesicki, Jarvis Landry, Tyreek Hill etc). So by simply getting on Nick Chubb and Lamar Jackson, I was able to have a really strong result. I was happy with my conviction around Chubb, but I think I did overestimate Kadarius Toney’s role. All in all, a good win despite a bunch of snowflakes in the lineup.
Year-To-Date Results
Week 1: 124.86 points, won 70.5% of head-to-heads
Week 2: 92.88 points, won 5.7% of head-to-heads
Week 3: 151.52 points, won 63.8% of head-to-heads
Week 4: 104.92 points, won 8.1% of head-to-heads
Week 5: 187.08 points, won 82.7% of head-to-heads
Week 6: 147.98 points, won 82.3% of head-to-heads
Week 7: 163.38 points, won 88.1% of head-to-heads
Week 8: 135.62 points, won 37.0% of head-to-heads
Week 9: 127.54 points, won 81.4% of head-to-heads
