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I play around 60% of my action each week in “cash games.” Cash games refer to any contest in which roughly 50% of the field gets paid out, such as head-to-head, double up or 50/50. I try to get as much head-to-head action as I can every week and then supplement that with other cash games.
Each week, I’ll review my cash-game lineup in this space. Sometimes I’ll lose, but hopefully I’ll win more often. Either way, I’ll post it here and give you my thought process.
The pricing wasn’t as loose as some Week 1 slates I’ve seen. But it wasn’t incredibly tight either, as DraftKings left most WRs and QBs roughly $300-$500 too cheap. So especially after the Tee Higgins hamstring injury, we didn’t need to force anything. I thought there was a very clear correct construction, as discussed below.
MY MUST PLAYS
* Yes, it was a very small sample. But Anthony Richardson led all QBs in fantasy points per dropback last season. The elite rushing QBs also provide tremendous floors thanks to their legs. On top of that, this HOU-IND game was Thorman’s top “Up In Pace” game.
So while I didn’t hate paying up for Josh Allen ($8000) or punting with Justin Fields ($5000), Richardson was clearly the best combo of value and floor/ceiling. He was a “must” for me over Fields because the cap wasn’t very tight. And the Arthur Smith nonsense plus Fields’ woes as a thrower left very little ceiling.
* Ja’Marr Chase (hold-in) was expected to be limited and Tee Higgins (hamstring) was out. Meanwhile, Andrei Iosivas was the star of camp – easily icing Jermaine Burton and Trenton Irwin for the WR3 job. I was never passing on that spot at $3000 as long as Joe Burrow was starting.
* We could poke holes in all the expensive WRs. CeeDee Lamb had a very difficult matchup, Justin Jefferson was on the road with Sam Darnold, Ja’Marr Chase (hold-in) was a mess, and Davante Adams has Gardner Minshew.
Meanwhile Tyreek Hill was the NFL’s MVP last season and the Dolphins were extremely thin at pass-catcher behind him/Waddle. The Dolphins were at home in the slate’s highest total. I would’ve paid at least $9400 for Tyreek in this spot, but he was just $8700. He was a lock once we knew his “detainment” before the game wasn’t an issue. Tyreek was 3.7 points clear of any other WR on the slate in our Week 1 Main Slate projections.
MY WANT PLAYS
* I only considered four RBs for cash: Rachaad White, Alvin Kamara, De’Von Achane, Bijan Robinson. Given the context of the slate, I knew I’d be playing four WRs. The values at WR were simply better.
The big decision was Alvin Kamara ($6700) vs. De’Von Achane ($6800). I preferred Achane as the player on the rise with the NFL’s best schemer in the slate’s highest game total. I also thought there was a lot of room for Achane to be used as a pass-catcher given the Dolphins’ lack of depth there.
Meanwhile, Kamara is in decline and has Taysom Hill/Jamaal Williams threatening around the goal-line. I also thought the Panthers would play well in the game. So while the volume for Kamara projected better, I actually thought Achane was the safer bet.
The other decision was: Is punting at QB and/or D/ST was worth the $1400 to get from Rachaad White to Bijan Robinson. I considered it, but in the end considered Anthony Richardson a must. And I was more than fine with White at this depressed price given his pass-catching plus goal-line role in a very good matchup.
* The last two WR spots came down to two 1v1s at roughly the same prices: Christian Kirk vs. Tank Dell, and Malik Nabers vs. Drake London.
I had some light concerns Kirk wouldn’t be on in 2-WR sets, and also questioned his ceiling relative to Dell. Yes Dell also didn’t project to play in 2-WR sets, but he + Stroud can break the slate on relatively little volume. I want to be leaning into ceiling more, especially when I’m playing a lot of head-to-heads. Unlike double ups, it’s far better to have a 90th percentile lineup than a 55th.
As for Nabers vs. London, I didn’t love having two Falcons pass-catchers given how ugly Arthur Smith can make games. I also thought Nabers could reach a 30% target share, an absurd number for someone priced at $5900.
* I hated the TE position on DraftKings this week. The punts like Ja’Tavion Sanders, Mike Gesicki, and Johnny Mundt were very thin with zero ceiling. Guys such as Evan Engram, Dalton Kincaid, and Trey McBride were appropriately priced.
So I decided to close my eyes and pray on Kyle Pitts as the “least bad” option. I knew the floor was poor for a tight end priced at $4600, but at least the ceiling was solid. Pitts was a negative value in our projections, but still our best TE value on this slate.
* I didn’t think there were any standout plays at D/ST. I liked Falcons ($3300) and Chargers ($2900) most relative to cost, but if I had to punt with something like Patriots or Broncos or Commanders or even Panthers… I could’ve lived with that. As it turned out, Chargers fit perfectly with the team I had.
Week 1 Results
This team was very close to our optimal (I run our projections through The Solver to see the top-10 optimal lineups) based on mean projections. The pivots I made were Achane over Kamara, Dell over Kirk, and Nabers over London. While we could debate all those, I’m happy I decided to repeatedly lean into the ceiling side of each. I’m also happy with the decision to stick with Richardson over Fields given game context.
In a lowish-scoring week, big games from Tyreek + Richardson + Achane was enough to get me off to a smashing start this season. Almost makes you feel happy to be alive.
Year-To-Date Results
Week 1: 147.38 points, won 98.6% of head-to-heads
* Note: Win percentages do not include ties.
