I play around 60% of my action each week in “cash games.” Cash games refer to any contest in which roughly 50% of the field gets paid out, such as head-to-head, double up or 50/50. I try to get as much head-to-head action as I can every week and then supplement that with other cash games. I make one cash lineup for DraftKings and one for FanDuel.
Each week, I’ll review my cash-game lineups in this space. Sometimes I’ll lose, but hopefully I’ll win more often. Either way, I’ll post it here and give you my thought process.
This was a massive 13-game slate that included a lot of stars in very strong spots. I thought it set up well for a stars and scrubs kind of construction. We also got some late inactive news on Chris Rodriguez which changed our optimal lineup (more on that at the bottom).
Note: Unless stated otherwise, the discussion below is about DraftKings.
MY MUST PLAYS
* I didn’t think Woody Marks was a home run. But with Nick Chubb (ribs) out and an ideal matchup at home against the Cardinals, Marks’ volume projection at $5600 was a must. That volume was secure because the Cardinals throw so much, and the offense was likely to struggle against the Texans’ elite defense… leading to more plays for the Texans.
* The Lions defense came into this one again struggling with injuries, particularly in the secondary as they’d be without both Terrion Arnold and Brian Branch. We had Puka Nacua for a massive 25.2 points at $8700, making him our best salary-adjusted value on the slate.
* The matchup against the Ravens in bitter cold wasn’t ideal. But when Tee Higgins is out, Joe Burrow is at QB, and Ja’Marr Chase is less than $9000… I’m almost certainly going to play him. In that setup, 15+ targets for Chase is always in play.
MY WANT PLAYS
* There were a ton of viable cheap options at QB this week. I considered Marcus Mariota ($5000), CJ Stroud ($5200), and Trevor Lawrence ($5700) as the best. I preferred Lawrence, and looked at a 3v3 of TLaw, Gibbs, and Saints D instead of Stroud, Christian McCaffrey, and Packers D. But once I got comfortable with CMC’s back injury (the reporting around it showed zero concern whatsoever), I preferred him to Gibbs given this home spot against the Titans. Even with a small injury dock on McCaffrey, we had him 1.4 points clear of Gibbs.
So getting to Lawrence for $500 more wasn’t possible unless I punted D/ST with the Raiders, which I thought about but ultimately didn’t want to do.
* There were zero WRs at $4K and under I wanted to play. But there were a ton of them at tight end. It’s very rare I think double-TE is right in cash, but this was a unique slate where I thought it was. Harold Fannin is clearly one of the best tight ends in football already, and had very little target competition at $4000. Theo Johnson ($3500) and Jaxson Dart have shown real chemistry, and the matchup against the Commanders was ideal. Playing both wasn’t exciting, but it game me access to the WRs and RB I really needed.
* Chris Rodriguez (groin) was ruled out 90 minutes before lock. That left the Commanders with only Jacory Croskey-Merritt and Jeremy McNichols at RB. At that point, our optimal lineup (best possible team based on our projections) faded both Christian McCaffrey and Jahmyr Gibbs in favor of jamming the three awesome WR plays: Puka, Chase, and Amon-Ra St. Brown.
I didn’t love this because McCaffrey is the definition of an ideal cash game play. Especially in a home matchup against the Texans, the floor/ceiling combo is just outrageous. But I did consider playing our optimal because I really hated playing Mitchell Tinsley. I wasn’t even sure his role would sustain, considering how bad he was the last time Tee Higgins was out. But in the end, I couldn’t pull the trigger to get off CMC.
Week 15 Results
Although I preferred Trevor Lawrence to CJ Stroud, I didn’t think finding the $500 was a priority. That hurt. But I’m more disappointed that I couldn’t find a fade on Mitchell Tinsley. Even if I wanted to stick with CMC/Tinsley over Croskey-Merritt/ARSB, I still didn’t have to play Tinsley. Tre Harris (on the Quentin Johnston inactive) and DeAndre Hopkins (on the Rashod Bateman inactive) were options as well. So even though it wasn’t a terrible day, I found my way to the worst possible outcome. Which is frustrating.
YEAR-TO-DATE RESULTS
Week 1 DraftKings: 111.32 points, won 37.0% of head-to-heads
Week 2 DraftKings: 145.40 points, won 76.5% of head-to-heads
Week 3 DraftKings: 168.68 points, won 70.6% of head-to-heads
Week 4 DraftKings: Did not play
Week 5 Draftkings: 192.22 points, won 87.5% of head-to-heads
Week 6 DraftKings: 153.92 points, won 56.8% of head-to-heads
Week 7 DraftKings: 186.04 points, won 94.9% of head-to-heads
Week 8 DraftKings: 95.48 points, won 11.4% of head-to-heads
Week 9 DraftKings: 179.04 points, won 86.8% of head-to-heads
Week 10 DraftKings: 189.72 points, won 86.4% of head-to-heads
Week 11 DraftKings: 154.88 points, won 75.7% of head-to-heads
Week 12 DraftKings: 200.28 points, won 77.0% of head-to-heads
Week 13 DraftKings: 82.44 points, won 2.9% of head-to-heads
Week 14 DraftKings: 123.12 points, won 28.0% of head-to-heads
Week 15 DraftKings: 132.8 points, won 47.4% of head-to-heads
Week 1 FanDuel: 114.22 points, won 92.3% of head-to-heads
Week 2 FanDuel: 119.00 points, won 95.2% of head-to-heads
Week 3 FanDuel: 149.42 points, won 82.6% of head-to-heads
Week 4 FanDuel: Did not play
Week 5 FanDuel: 177.7 points, won 89.4% of head-to-heads
Week 6 FanDuel: 149.62 points, won 90.1% of head-to-heads
Week 7 FanDuel: 160.44 points, won 66.7% of head-to-heads
Week 8 FanDuel: 158.18 points, won 100% of head-to-heads
Week 9 FanDuel: 120.2 points, won 42.9% of head-to-heads
Week 10 FanDuel: 137.32 points, won 58.8% of head-to-heads
Week 11 FanDuel: 94.9 points, won 46.7% of head-to-heads
Week 12 FanDuel: 158.56 points, won 52.2% of head-to-heads
Week 13 FanDuel: 122.84 points, won 100% of head-to-heads
Week 14 FanDuel: 121.6 points, won 27.0% of head-to-heads
* Note: Win percentages do not include ties.
