I play around 60% of my action each week in “cash games.” Cash games refer to any contest in which roughly 50% of the field gets paid out, such as head-to-head, double up or 50/50. I try to get as much head-to-head action as I can every week and then supplement that with other cash games.
Each week, I’ll review my cash-game lineup in this space. Sometimes I’ll lose, but hopefully I’ll win more often. Either way, I’ll post it here and give you my thought process.
Week 18 is annually my favorite slate of the year. We know it’s going to play loose in terms of pricing. And we also know our opponents are going to get overwhelmed by the all the changing and unique information.
Note: Unless stated otherwise, the discussion below is about DraftKings.
MY MUST PLAYS
* Playing RBs against the Panthers has been a printing press. They came into Week 18 ranked dead last (by a wide margin) in our DvP model, projecting to inflate opposing RB production by 12% over baseline. Add in that the Falcons were in a must-win spot at home, and I would’ve paid significantly more than $8500 for Bijan Robinson.
* The Bucs were also in a must-win spot at home, and were facing mostly second-stringers of the Saints. Over the last month, Bucky Irving has iced Rachaad White and earned a true three-down plus goal-line role. The Bucs had the highest implied team total on the slate. Even at a season-high $7700, the explosive Bucky was a lock.
* The mid-range of running back was littered with question marks about motivation, playing time, and talent. However, Michael Carter’s playing time was not in doubt because James Conner, Trey Benson, and Emari Demercado were all on IR. Carter is the exact kind of cheap RB I like to play – his calling card is as a pass-catcher, but he was going to get a ton of base work here as well.
* This was a poor QB slate. No Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow, Sam Darnold, Jared Goff, Patrick Mahomes, etc. It was clearly right to pay down at QB as we were really unlikely to get burned.
And we also had a solid play at the stone minimum $4000 in Josh Dobbs. It wasn’t like Trey Lance getting dropped into a talent-deprived team with questionable coaching. Dobbs was getting dropped into a Kyle Shanahan offense with Jauan Jennings, George Kittle, Ricky Pearsall at his disposal. Dobbs’ floor was boosted by his rushing ability.
MY WANT PLAYS
* Regular readers know I’m typically trying to spend as little as possible at tight end. So while Trey McBride ($6500) and Brock Bowers ($6600) were fine plays, I didn’t think they fit the context of the slate. When Hunter Henry was ruled out I did try to get to Austin Hooper ($3300), but I didn’t think he was worth blowing up my team for. We expected Drake Maye to get pulled early, leaving unproven Joe Milton at QB – and it’s not like Austin Hooper is some great talent.
So I was fine to just punt it off with Peyton Hendershot at minimum $2500, who we projected to have the tight end job to himself for the Chiefs. Hendershot of course isn’t very good, but he did catch 136 balls in four seasons at Indiana from 2018-21. And by spending the minimum at the tight end position, we can win when the entire position fails – which is always a possibility at tight end.
* I would have been fine with a ton of D/STs on this slate. Bucs (vs. Rattler), Broncos (vs. Wentz), Texans (at Levis), Commanders (at Lance) were some of my favorites. I simply played the one that fit, which in this lineup was the Texans D/ST. If I could’ve gotten to Austin Hooper over Peyton Hendershot by going down to Giants D/ST against Tanner McKee, I likely would have.
* The biggest decision points on DraftKings once again came at wide receiver. It’s been like that for seemingly the last 1-2 months. There were six WRs I considered for cash: Michael Pittman, Jakobi Meyers, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Drake London, Brian Thomas, and Mike Evans.
My favorite play was Mike Evans, who had a great matchup against the Saints in a game the Bucs had to have. He also needed 85 yards to get to his 11th straight 1,000-yard season, and the Bucs were very vocal about saying they wanted to get him there. More importantly, the best way for the Bucs to win the game was by throwing to Evans.
I looked at teams that punted at wide receiver in order to get to Brian Thomas, but that went out the window once Darnell Mooney (hamstring) was scratched. At that point, Drake London’s projected target share at $6500 against a brutal Panthers defense was too strong to ignore. London was our third-best WR value in projection, behind only Evans and Thomas.
Michael Pittman had some really rough games early in the year, even with Joe Flacco. But during that time it was reported he would go on IR with a back injury… he never did and simply played through it. In Week 17 Pittman ran 38/40 routes while Josh Downs ran 26/40. So given the matchup with the Jaguars and the hyper-aggressive Flacco at the controls, I thought Pittman was very safe.
Week 18 Results
Unlike the alleged “Cash Game King,” I was able to profit by identifying this Darnell Mooney-less spot against the lowly Panthers and with Michael Penix as a very strong one for Drake London. Of course I was fortunate he ran into a 99th-percentile outcome. I was also fortunate to run into a defensive TD from the Texans, although that’s always in play against walking mistake Will Levis. Overall, I think this was the right team to put a bow on a solid cash season.
YEAR-TO-DATE RESULTS
Week 1 DraftKings: 147.38 points, won 98.6% of head-to-heads
Week 2 DraftKings: 116.94 points, won 21.1% of head-to-heads
Week 3 DraftKings: 109.3 points, won 54.8% of head-to-heads
Week 4 DraftKings: 146.28 points, won 75.3% of head-to-heads
Week 5 DraftKings: 143.06 points, won 83.5% of head-to-heads
Week 6 DraftKings: 134.12 points, won 50.1% of head-to-heads
Week 7 DraftKings: 93.14 points, won 28.2% of head-to-heads
Week 8 DraftKings: 173.16 points, won 96.3% of head-to-heads
Week 9 DraftKings: 170.86 points, won 65.2% of head-to-heads
Week 10 DraftKings: 117.92 points, won 66.1% of head-to-heads
Week 11 DraftKings: 133.00 points, won 81.5% of head-to-heads
Week 12 DraftKings: 145.08 points, won 77.8% of head-to-heads
Week 13 DraftKings: 116.88 points, won 10.5% of head-to-heads
Week 14 DraftKings: 201.38 points, won 93.1% of head-to-heads
Week 15 DraftKings: Did not play
Week 16 DraftKings: 123.28 points, won 31.4% of head-to-heads
Week 17 DraftKings: 144.28 points, won 36.2% of head-to-heads
Week 18 DraftKings: 185.64 points, won 75.4% of head-to-heads
Week 1 FanDuel: Did not play
Week 2 FanDuel: 143.24 points, won 75.2% of head-to-heads
Week 3 FanDuel: 111.88 points, won 71.9% of head-to-heads
Week 4 FanDuel: 120.92 points, won 41.9% of head-to-heads
Week 5 FanDuel: 130.22 points, won 71.4% of head-to-heads
Week 6 FanDuel: 133.36 points, won 80.6% of head-to-heads
Week 7 FanDuel: 100.04 points, won 65.0% of head-to-heads
Week 8 FanDuel: 122.36 points, won 70.4% of head-to-heads
Week 9 FanDuel: 132.1 points, won 52.0% of head-to-heads
Week 10 FanDuel: 108.82 ponts, won 60.9% of head-to-heads
Week 11 FanDuel: 112.58 points, won 29.0% of head-to-heads
Week 12 FanDuel: 120.56 points, won 47.8% of head-to-heads
Week 13 FanDuel: 136.2 points, won 89.4% of head-to-heads
Week 14 FanDuel: 186.08 points, won 71.4% of head-to-heads
Week 15 FanDuel: Did not play
Week 16 FanDuel: 151.38 points, won 90.5% of head-to-heads
Week 17 FanDuel: Did not play
Week 18 FanDuel: Did not play
* Note: Win percentages do not include ties.
