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I play around 60% of my action each week in “cash games.” Cash games refer to any contest in which roughly 50% of the field gets paid out, such as head-to-head, double up or 50/50. I try to get as much head-to-head action as I can every week and then supplement that with other cash games.
Each week, I’ll review my cash-game lineup in this space. Sometimes I’ll lose, but hopefully I’ll win more often. Either way, I’ll post it here and give you my thought process.
I thought this was an extremely straightforward week from a cash game perspective. The Week 1 Puka Nacua injury happened after Week 2 pricing was already released. The CMC news broke after the Week 2 salaries were out as well. And then we had a whole slew of RBs and WRs who were flat underpriced.
MY MUST PLAYS
* I would’ve considered playing Cooper Kupp at $7600 against the Cardinals even if Puka Nacua was healthy. But with Nacua (knee) out, Kupp was a stone-cold lock. Anything less than 30% of the targets for Kupp from the WR kingmaker Matthew Stafford would’ve been a surprise. And the matchup/game environment in Arizona was elite as well.
* Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers are going to run one of the NFL’s most efficient run schemes, no matter who the running back is. We saw proof of that Monday night when Jordan Mason got elite usage and shredded a formidable Jets defense. There was no way to pass on Mason at just $5200 with a true workhorse role in these offense.
* The Christian McCaffrey (calf) absence also gave Deebo Samuel a big boost. Not only did Jordan Mason project to earn significantly fewer targets than CMC, but Deebo has also historically acted as the RB2 in these spots. That’s especially been true around the goal-line, as his TD rate per rush is wild. Deebo ($6800) was our second-best salary-adjusted value among WRs on the slate, behind only Kupp ($7600).
* Breece Hall wasn’t benefitting from any injury, he was simply mispriced at just $7400. I thought there were outcomes where Hall handled 100% of the RB opportunities with a very RB-friendly QB in Aaron Rodgers. Although the matchup wasn’t necessarily ideal, Hall’s talent + pass-game role + volume was always a lock here.
MY WANT PLAYS
* I would have been fine playing Jayden Daniels ($6200) or even Daniel Jones ($5200) at QB if I needed the money. But on this slate, salary space was not an issue. So I was more than fine going with the safety of Patrick Mahomes ($7000) for his home matchup with Joe Burrow. Although Mahomes’ odds of hitting his ceiling has dipped as defenses attempt to force him underneath, the Chiefs’ extreme pass rate in the red zone and overall pass rate keeps the floor/ceiling combo high.
* My first instinct when I looked at salaries was I wanted to play Rashee Rice ($6700). I expected a ton more layup targets from Mahomes to create a solid floor, and then the YAC for the ceiling. But as the week went on, it became tougher for me to find a fade on Kyren Williams. Avoiding running backs who play 90% of the snaps in RB-friendly schemes in good game environments at just $6800 is not how I like to play cash. So it was painful, but I decided to go Kyren over Rice in flex.
* Given all the “musts” above, I knew I’d have to punt at one WR spot. The options to me were clear: Allen Lazard, Andrei Iosivas, or Tyler Johnson. I didn’t want four Rams, so Johnson was out. I preferred Iosivas to Lazard as the player in the better game environment with the better quarterback. Iosivas also projected to play 100% of the snaps again with Tee Higgins (hamstring) out. But in the end, I didn’t think it was worth the $500 I would’ve needed to get to Yoshi.
* I certainly didn’t love Colby Parkinson. But I expected the entire tight end position to fail this week – we had zero positive values in projection among all TEs on this slate. So it was a no-brainer to just take the cheapest viable option. I thought that was clearly Parkinson ($3100), who would benefit from both Puka Nacua (knee) and Davis Allen (back) being out.
* I wanted to play one of Broncos, Patriots, Jaguars, or Chargers at D/ST. I also would’ve been fine with Commanders or Giants. This lineup had exactly $2800 left, so the choice was between Broncos and Patriots. Obviously, the Seahawks projected for more dropbacks which is normally how I break coin-flips at D/ST. But I did think if the Broncos could get a lead (they were only 2.5-point dogs), Justin Fields’ mistake-prone nature would lead to a bigger ceiling. Broncos also gave me some late-swap options if I needed.
Week 2 Results
I won my close 1v1 calls in Week 1. This week, I didn’t do as well. Rashee Rice beat Kyren Williams, Andrei Iosivas smoked Allen Lazard, and Patrick Mahomes didn’t separate from Jayden Daniels or Daniel Jones. In a week where there was so much overlap (as expected), I can’t miss on those and expect to book a win.
It is a bit frustrating as there were a ton of plays I would’ve made in a tighter week. JK Dobbins, Malik Nabers, and Chris Godwin all would’ve been core cash plays if there weren’t so many other absolute musts. And of course all three went absolutely nuclear.
But no excuses, given the way the slate set up I was happy with what I played.
Year-To-Date Results
Week 1: 147.38 points, won 98.6% of head-to-heads
Week 2: 116.94, won 21.1% of head-to-heads
* Note: Win percentages do not include ties
