Dynasty Outlook
April 9
Malachi Corley is our WR10 for rookie drafts and checks in as WR52 in our overall dynasty ranks. While he did not break out before his final season, the COVID year complicates how we should apply that to players, and Corley accumulated a ton of raw statistics. His versatility lends him comps to some valuable fantasy WRs, and the ceiling comp to Deebo Samuel is brought up both by scouts and the data. Corley is someone worth making a priority target in the second round of rookie drafts.
Profile Summary
Corley was a short-area target vacuum in college, who also contributed in the run game. He was productive after the catch, and scored plenty of TDs. More than one of our notable scouts compared him to Deebo Samuel, as did our statistical comps. He should be a Day 1 starter inside for whoever drafts him.
Vitals
Age (as of 12/31/23) — 21.8
Experience — 4 years
Height — 70.625 inches
Weight — 215 pounds
Hand — 9.125 inches
Arm — 32.125 inches
Forty — 4.56 seconds
Shuttle — 4.22 seconds
By the Numbers
Corley was just a two-star prospect when he came to WKU, and played sparingly as a true freshman during COVID. The Hilltoppers were a low-volume passing offense. That changed when Bailey Zappe joined the team in 2021. Though Corley was the fourth-leading receiver on the team, he still compiled 73 catches and seven TDs.
In his third season, Corley stepped up in a major way. He went over 100 catches, had nearly 1,300 receiving yards, and scored 11 TDs. He also carried the ball 11 times for 87 yards. While this did not qualify as a breakout in terms of dominator rating, he did eclipse 2.00 yards per team pass attempt. Corley’s statistical breakout came in 2023 despite having worse raw statistics.
Corley’s versatility is illuminating of his potential. Here are all the Day 1 or 2 WRs since 2000 to record 200 catches, 10 rushing attempts, and 25 TDs in their careers:
Jordan Addison
Zay Flowers
Jayden Reed
N’Keal Harry
Andy Isabella
Christian Kirk
Sterling Shepard
Tyler Lockett
Brandin Cooks
Marqise Lee
Sammy Watkins
Robert Woods
Tavon Austin
Ryan Broyles
T.Y. Hilton
Kendall Wright
Titus Young
Eric Decker
Greg Jennings
Braylon Edwards
Mark Clayton
Roy Williams
There are a lot of quality NFL players on this list. Perhaps most interestingly, Corley is far heavier than the majority of this sample. He weighed in at 215 pounds at the Combine, and most of these players are under 200.
What the Scouts are Saying
Lance Zierlein compared Corley to Deebo Samuel:
Corley is a big, physical wideout who has been asked to carry a heavy workload for Western Kentucky using his talent after the catch. Corley’s highlight reel will be full of broken tackles and general carnage left in his wake. He’s an average route runner with the tools to improve, but a disappointing drop rate and contested-catch rate are concerns relative to the way he plays the game in space. Like Brandon Aiyuk or Deebo Samuel when they were prospects, Corley has had a heavy percentage of his targets schemed around him and he will need to prove he can become more than just a quick-game bully or gadget guy. He’s good at what his team asked him to do, which is a great jump-off point for evaluators considering him as a Day 2 selection and future starter.
Daniel Jeremiah describes Corley as a slot receiver:
Corley is a compact, physical slot receiver with outstanding run-after-the-catch ability. He lives on quick hitters, with an average depth of target of 6.1 yards in 2023 (according to Pro Football Focus). When he’s not running screens or quick hitters, he is very explosive working down the seam. He wasn’t asked to run a lot of traditional routes in the system at Western Kentucky, but I don’t see any physical limitations or stiffness that would preclude him from developing a more diverse route repertoire. He has some drops on tape, but he can offset a few of those with special catches outside his frame. After the catch, he runs through tackles, makes defenders miss, and has legit top-end speed. Overall, Corley can have an immediate role as a starting slot receiver next fall.
Dane Brugler highlighted Corley’s yards-after-the-catch ability:
With the build and body strength of a running back, Corley earned his “YAC King” nickname as a catch-and-go weapon with immediate burst and urgency as a ball carrier (9.2 yards after catch per reception over the last two seasons).
Though Corley is able to create chunk plays with his legs, a large portion (75.7%) of his catches in 2023 came within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage, and he wasn’t asked to consistently create for himself before the catch.
His NFL comparison is somewhere between Deebo Samuel and Amari Rodgers, which is a wide spectrum.
Draft Projection
Corley does not make the top 50 at Grinding the Mocks, which sources mock drafts around the interwebs. Mock Draft Database is a similar service that has Corley 57th overall. Jordan Reid’s two-round mock has Corley going 54th. He is not a first-round prospect, but he seems highly likely to come off the board in the middle of Day 2.
Comparable Players
I use Principal Component Analysis to evaluate prospects. In simplest terms, this kind of analysis looks at relevant data points to find the closest comparable players in past drafts. I prefer this to a model output — which yields only a single result — as it can display the possible range of outcomes for a prospect.
Note that the analysis itself isn’t telling us how good a player is; it is simply returning the most similar players. It is then up to us to layer in context and past results to see how good we think this player may be.
Corley’s comps are filled with busts: Mohamed Mossaquoi, Austin Pettis, Bryan Edwards, Cody Latimer, Marcus Smith, and Kevin White. Torrey Smith and Brandon LaFell had long, productive careers, but they were never stars. Not a great start to this list.
But the positive comps are encouraging, and worth the price of admission. Deebo Samuel is someone the scouts also mention as a comp, which is a strong signal. Rashee Rice, who already appears to be off to a great start with Patrick Mahomes, also shows up. So while the floor may be low here for Corley, the ceiling is quite tantalizing.
