Dynasty Outlook
March 6
Marvin Harrison Jr. is our WR1 for rookie drafts and checks in as WR3 in our overall dynasty ranks. This is extremely high praise that we do not take lightly and does not come without merit. Harrison received strong compliments from all of the scouts, and the statistical comps are extremely impressive on the whole. Especially given his Hall-of-Fame bloodline, Harrison is likely to carry incredible trade value in dynasty formats. Expect him to come in right away and be a top-20 fantasy receiver as a rookie.
Profile Summary
Harrison is one of the best WR prospects to come out of the draft in the last 20 years. He is absolutely in the Chase, Cooper, Julio Jones-type stratosphere that teams have salivated over. Harrison has the size and length to win in contested-catch situations, and is a prototypical No. 1 wideout. It is likely that he immediately lands in a situation to be his team’s top target.
Vitals
Age (as of 12/31/23) — 21.4
Experience — 3 years
Height — 75.25 inches
Weight — 209 pounds
Hand — 9.5 inches
Arm — 31.88 inches
By the Numbers
Harrison is, of course, the son of former Colts WR Marvin Harrison. He played sparingly as a true freshman on a team that contained Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and expected 2025 first-round pick Emeka Egbuka.
Once Olave and Wilson found their way into the NFL, Harrison immediately took over as the top option in a C.J. Stroud-led offense. This was aided somewhat by JSN’s injury issues, which kept him off the field for much of the year, but Harrison saw a true breakout and over three yards per team pass attempt. His production leveled off in terms of raw totals in 2023, but the pass offense was far worse without Stroud, meaning Harrison was shouldering more of it. After being neck and neck with Egbuka in 2022, Harrison more than doubled his receiving yards in 2023 (in two more games). That led to him winning the Biletnikoff Award in 2023.
Here is the list of all WRs since 2000 to win the Biletnikoff and then be drafted in the first round:
Jordan Addison
DeVonta Smith
Ja’Marr Chase
Jerry Jeudy
Corey Coleman
Amari Cooper
Brandin Cooks
Justin Blackmon
Michael Crabtree
Calvin Johnson
Braylon Edwards
Larry Fitzgerald
Charles Rogers
Chase, Cooper, Blackmon, Johnson, Edwards, Fitzgerald, and Rogers were all selected in the top five — where Harrison is almost sure to go.
What the Scouts are Saying
Lance Zierlein compares Harrison to CeeDee Lamb:
Harrison comes from impressive NFL bloodlines and possesses similarities that made his father, Pro Football Hall of Famer Marvin Harrison, special. Harrison can run but isn’t a burner. What makes him tough to handle is his consistent play speed paired with quality salesmanship in his routes. He’s able to uncover no matter where he’s aligned or which part of the field his assignment takes him to, and he is capable of finishing catches in a crowd. Harrison can be sudden while working possession routes, and he’s well qualified to beat any opponent with his ball skills if the battle heads deep. Harrison is a touchdown champ with a variety of ways to excel, and that characteristic figures to follow him into the pros. He has the traits and tools to win in all three phases of the route and on all three levels of the field. He’s a pedigree prospect and a Day 1 starter with high-end production expected.
Daniel Jeremiah thinks Harrison will have immediate success:
Harrison has ideal size, speed, and production. Built like a power forward, he plays with a blend of physicality and explosiveness. He uses his upper-body strength to power through press coverage. He’s a smooth/fluid route runner and closes the cushion quickly. He gets on the toes of cornerbacks before sharply breaking off his route. He can tap into another gear when the ball goes up and he tracks over his shoulder with ease. He knows how to use his big frame to wall off and shield defenders. Harrison has a huge catch radius, but he did have some contact drops in traffic this fall. After the catch, he relies on speed and physicality more than elusiveness. Overall, Harrison is a prototypical No. 1 receiver and should enjoy immediate NFL success.
Dane Brugler continued the love of Harrison from the experts:
It can be difficult to discuss Harrison without sounding hyperbolic, because he grades well above average in most areas. A tall, lean target with the long speed and short-area agility of a smaller player, Harrison displays controlled fluidity in his releases/routes, which allows him to create separation using complex breaks, stem angles, and subtle head/body fakes.
He has the uncanny ability to slow down the ball with his eyes, expand his catch radius, and frame the football to make low-percentage catches appear routine — similar to how Larry Fitzgerald used to excel.
Draft Projection
Harrison has an expected draft position of 3.6 on Grinding the Mocks, which sources mock drafts around the interwebs. Mock Draft Database is a similar service that has Harrison fourth overall. Jeremiah’s most recent mock draft has Harrison going third overall, while Brugler’s has him going fourth. It is clear that Harrison is destined for the top five of the NFL Draft.
Comparable Players
I use Principal Component Analysis to evaluate prospects. In simplest terms, this kind of analysis looks at relevant data points to find the closest comparable players in past drafts. I prefer this to a model output — which yields only a single result — as it can display the possible range of outcomes for a prospect.
Note that the analysis itself isn’t telling us how good a player is; it is simply returning the most similar players. It is then up to us to layer in context and past results to see how good we think this player may be.
Harrison’s comp set is a verifiable who’s who of elite talents. Chase, Edwards, Odell Beckham, Allen Robinson, D.J. Moore, Greg Jennings, DeAndre Hopkins, and Roddy White all have had at least one WR1 season. Six of those WRs had at least one within three seasons.
As dominant as Harrison is likely to be, there is some slight bust potential in his comps. J.J. Arcega-Whiteside and James Washington never became real producers at the NFL level.
