HC Mike Nolan returns for his third season with the Panthers and his second with OC Marcel Bellefeuille orchestrating the offense. Bellefeuille was a relative unknown last season, but spring football diehards will remember him from his days as the Philadelphia Stars’ OC/WR coach, where he and then-HC Bart Andrus orchestrated one of the USFL’s pass-happiest offenses. In fact, in 2023, Bellefeuille’s Stars posted the league’s highest situation-neutral pass rate (68.0%) on the third-most plays per game (59.2). Bellefeuille was also known for his heavy usage of 10 personnel, deploying 4-WR sets on 60.4% of the Stars’ offensive snaps that season. However, in his first season with Michigan in 2024, whether by influence from Nolan or dictated by personnel, Bellefeuille posted the league’s lowest overall pass rate (53.7%) and the lowest pass:run TD ratio (0.4:1). I suspect that a defensive-minded head coach like Nolan, who also had the league’s second-highest-graded defense in 2024 (76.8), likely had some influence on Bellefeuille’s play-calling tendencies, and we should expect that to continue to be the case moving forward.
As it stands today, Michigan has yet to determine their starting QB for the season, as Bryce Perkins and Danny Etling battle it out through training camp. An NFL preseason darling, Perkins would immediately become one of the league’s top fantasy assets should he be announced as the Panthers’ QB1. Perkins appeared in four games for the Panthers last season, completing 78.9% of his passes for 9.0 YPA and a 2:1 TD:INT ratio but most notably was electric with his legs on both designed runs and on scrambles, racking up a 19/182/2 rushing line with 10 explosive runs and 14 broken tackles, according to PFF. That small four-game sample is consistent with what we saw from Perkins in his six NFL preseason appearances for the Los Angeles Rams, where he went for 40/187/2 on the ground while also completing 65.0% of his passes for 6.1 YPA and a 5:1 TD:INT ratio. Given his rushing prowess, there’s plenty of upside on a run-first Panthers offense, and when he is forced to drop back, he’ll be surrounded by one of the league’s most dynamic WR duos.
Marcus Simms and Siasoi Mariner both return to form a lethal 1-2 punch on the perimeter for Michigan after earning a lion’s share of the team’s receiving volume in 2024. Simms ran a route on 73.5% of dropbacks, 95.4% of which were lined up out wide, where he drew a 19.6% target share and 25.5% Air Yards share on a team-high 11.5-yard aDOT. Not to be outdone, Mariner ran a route on 67.2% of dropbacks for a 21.4% target share and 25.7% Air Yards share, ranking second in the UFL among qualifying wide receivers in YPRR (2.33). We feel confident that they’ll once again be every-down focal points in the Panthers’ 2025 passing attack.
Michigan will need to replace the vacated slot production after Trey Quinn and Devin Gray’s offseason departures. Quinn was the team’s primary slot receiver, running a route on 70.2% of dropbacks, 99.6% of which came out of the slot, where he saw a 16.3% target share and 16.4% Air Yards share. Gray was similarly involved, running a route on 61.1% of dropbacks, 60.3% of which came from the slot. Devin Ross, who returns for his fourth season as a Michigan Panther, figures to be the primary beneficiary of those vacated opportunities after he ran a route on just 35.1% of 2024 dropbacks, 77.9% of which came from the slot. Surviving final roster cutdowns, I think he’s the favorite to start in that role in Week 1. Malik Turner looks like a prime candidate to provide depth as both a slot and perimeter receiver, and could push for opportunities early in the season. In Turner’s final collegiate season at Illinois, he ran 59.6% of his routes from the slot and 40.4% lined up out wide before seeing a similar split throughout 15 NFL preseason appearances that spanned six years.
Wes Hills’ offseason departure vacates a 41.1% rush share and 8.1% target share for returning RBs Nate McCrary and Matt Colburn, but I wouldn’t rule out seeing Jaden Shirden involved early as the Panthers roll with a full-blown RBBC in 2025. Colburn led the backfield in 2024 rush share (41.6%) and target share (10.5%), but McCrary (33.8%, 5.2%) wasn’t too far behind. Regardless of who ends up under center, there will be competition for high-value touches at or near the goal line from a QB that is willing to call his own number in those situations. Even in a run-first offense, I’m willing to take a wait-and-see approach to get a sense of how Bellefeuille and Co. will deploy this three-headed backfield.
