NBA Matchups: May 20

Minnesota Timberwolves at Oklahoma City Thunder

Team Totals: Wolves 104.5, Thunder 112

Injury Report: Nikola Topic (O, ACL)

Wolves projected starters: Mike Conley, Anthony Edwards, Jaden McDaniels, Julius Randle, Rudy Gobert

Thunder projected starters: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Lu Dort, Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein

Offensive Ranks: Wolves 8th, Thunder 2nd
Defensive Ranks: Wolves 6th, Thunder 1st

Season Series: 2-2

Noteworthy Missed Games: Rudy Gobert (3 missed), Donte DiVincenzo (3), Julius Randle (3), Mike Conley (1), Cason Wallace (1), Chet Holmgren (2), Alex Caruso (2) 

Finch quotes: Said the games have not been slowing down as much in the postseason, said it’s a “business-like approach” for the guys, said Ant has more patience and he knows that it’s a process to go through a series, said Conley is unflappable and he almost never sees him get frustrated, said last year the Denver series could’ve had an effect on them, said guys are not affected by not closing out games anymore and things could change for the next game.

Daigneault quotes: Said the season series doesn’t hold much weight because of injuries, said Randle is playing with confidence and he’s been able to use both hands for them, said the Nuggets were more into gap help while the Wolves should be pressuring the ball more, said they have to be more selective on giving up 3-pointers to the Wolves, said “if we’re open, we’re going to shoot,” said they had to adjust using Hartenstein in different spaces against Denver and it should be different in this series against the Wolves, said they’re expecting plenty of zone, said the Wolves have eight impactful guys and they respect their entire rotation, said they used the regular season to have options in the tool box, said he didn’t plan on using so much Caruso over iHart in Game 7.

Stats and notes:

Before getting into each side, there should be a lot of zone in this series. We saw previous opponents have success with zone defense against OKC and the Wolves, and both teams have seen a ton of zone throughout the season. The turnovers for the Wolves are going to impact both sides of the ball in a huge way. 

When the Wolves have the ball:

*The turnovers are going to be a huge factor for the Wolves’ offense. The Wolves have 14.8 turnovers per game in the postseason for the fifth most among the playoff teams (18th in turnovers during the season). OKC is forcing a playoff-high 18.3 turnovers per game, and the Thunder forced the most turnovers during the season at 17.0 per game. The Wolves have also been awesome on the boards in the playoffs with the highest ORB% in the halfcourt (just 17th during the season), and that’s been a weaker part of the OKC defense in the postseason. Overall, OKC’s halfcourt defense has been ridiculous in the postseason at 86.3 points per 100 possessions, and they’ve been awesome at limiting transition at just 10.9% of possessions. That’s extra impressive when they’re playing two teams that live in transition (Denver first in fast-break points, Memphis first in transition possessions). Minnesota is really going to have to hit jumpers, and the Wolves are fifth in corner 3PA frequency this season. OKC’s interior defense has also been the best in the NBA, and they have the deepest on-ball options for Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle. The Wolves are going to have a really tough time generating easy looks.

When the Thunder have the ball:

*Game 7 offense from OKC was wild because of their 37 points off turnovers, and they wrecked the Nuggets in the paint with 64 points to advance in a blowout win. The Thunder also crushed in transition at 17.0% of their possessions for second in the playoffs (Pistons 17.7%), and they were the most efficient transition offense at 1.42 PPP. The Wolves weren’t all that great at limiting transition in the playoffs, but they were slightly above average in limiting transition during the season. Minnesota’s interior defense has improved in the playoffs, and they’ve been excellent with their PNR handler defense at 0.80 PPP.