NBA Matchups: November 7

BOS @ ORL | CLE @ WAS | TOR @ ATL | DET @ BKN | HOU @ SAS | CHA @ MIA | DAL @ MEM | CHI @ MIL | UTA @ MIN | GSW @ DEN | OKC @ SAC

Boston Celtics at Orlando Magic

Team Totals: Celtics 112.3, Magic 115.8

Injury Report: Xavier Tillman (O, personal)

Celtics projected starters: Derrick White, Payton Pritchard, Jaylen Brown, Josh Minott, Neemias Queta

Magic projected starters: Jalen Suggs, Desmond Bane, Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero, Wendell Carter Jr.

Mazzulla quotes: Said Queta played well and his shifts/rebounding were all valuable for them, said Minott fit well with the switching, said the game flipped for them in the middle of the outing against the Wizards and it carried over, said they still need to crash the boards while being able to force more turnovers.

Mosley quotes: Said they turned it over and they didn’t have defensive effort against the Hawks, said they put the Hawks on the line too much, said the Hawks had too many easy baskets and they were not in a rhythm, said they have to get home and regroup.

Stats and Notes: 

*One of the biggest letdowns on offense continues to be the Orlando Magic with their 25th-ranked offense. They are not taking 3-pointers as usual, and they’re not making them again at the fifth-lowest 3P% in the league. The good news is they are actually picking up their tempo with the lowest halfcourt frequency in the league, and they are crushing on the boards, but everything else just isn’t clicking. They get a paint-packing defense in Boston, and Joe Mazzulla will definitely be packing the paint to give up some 3-pointers. The Celtics are still at the slowest pace in the league with a very high 3-point rate as usual with the third-highest C&S attempts per game. The Magic do not give up C&S stuff at the third-lowest frequency per game in the NBA, so it’ll be up to the main offensive scorers for the Celtics to get a road win.

*Jaylen Brown went off in a matchup he should’ve crushed in Washington, and this time he should also find himself in a great spot. The Magic are a below-average team in limiting transition because they are upping their pace on the other end, and the Magic just don’t help off guys. It should be Franz Wagner on this assignment, and I love it for JB.

*Derrick White continues to be one of the biggest letdowns as a shooter, as he owns the third-worst mark in FG% above expected at -8.0%. White’s usage rate is way up this year, but the TS% has cratered to 44.1%. He’s shooting just 25.0% on C&S treys after hitting 40.9% last year. This just cannot continue because he’s still getting a good amount of uncontested looks. White has also been on the ball more, and he should get some 1-on-1 chances against Jalen Suggs on a minutes limit. The matchup isn’t as great for him because he still gets 33.3% of his shots on C&S (down from 47.7% last year), so I like it more for Brown.

*Payton Pritchard also doesn’t get a great matchup because 37.7% of his shots are C&S attempts. Like White, he’s been awful on those at just 21.7% this year from the sterling 44.5% he had last year (45.2% of shots). He’ll definitely get a strong game going soon, but this isn’t the one.

*Neemias Queta turned in one of the best games of his career on Wednesday with a 15/12/5 line in just 24 minutes against the Wizards. This matchup isn’t nearly as good, though. Josh Minott may get some minutes here as by far the best option to guard Paolo Banchero, so he will be in play despite not having a great matchup.

*Paolo Banchero’s usage has taken a big hit to start the season, but the shot profile is much better with more paint scoring, a higher percentage of his points at the line, and he’s cut his mid-range frequency way down, too. He should have it all come together soon enough, and this might be it against a Celtics team that doesn’t have great defenders with Minott on him (assuming Minott starts). The Celtics are really going to pack the paint in this one, so Paolo’s jumper falling could lead to a huge game.

*Franz Wagner likely gets Brown on both ends, and this matchup isn’t great for him. With the Celtics being OK in transition and also protecting the basket, I like the matchup much more for Paolo.