NBA Matchups: October 25

 

Mega matchups! This is probably going to be the biggest edition of the year, so I hope you have plenty of time to check this out. Plus, a huge shout-out to Jackson Kane for editing and posting this monster.

If you don’t have the time to read this, I understand! I noted great/good/bad matchups for each game.

 

ATL @ CHA | WAS @ IND | BOS @ NYK | HOU @ ORL | CLE @ BKN | DET @ MIA | MIN @ TOR | OKC @ CHI | NOP @ MEM | SAC @ UTA | DAL @ SAS | POR @ LAC

 

Atlanta Hawks at Charlotte Hornets

Team Totals:

Injury Report: Miles Bridges (O, suspended), Cody Martin (O, knee), Bryce McGowens (D, ankle), Frank Ntilikina (O, tibia), Wesley Matthews (O, calf)

Hawks projected starters: Trae Young, Dejounte Murray, De’Andre Hunter, Saddiq Bey, Clint Capela

Hornets projected starters: LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier, Gordon Hayward, P.J. Washington, Mark Williams

Snyder quotes: Said his rotation will be malleable and he could change his starting lineups, said they have talked about playing Okongwu at the 4, said he’s concerned about the lack of playing time for some guys in the preseason (mainly Hunter and Bey).

Clifford quotes: Said Hayward’s minor injury is not a concern, said Maledon was able to do some work at practice over the weekend and Bryce McGowens was not.

Stats and Notes: 

*Quin Snyder hasn’t committed to his starting lineup yet, but we know this team can score some points. Since Snyder was hired, the Hawks are first in offensive pace and fourth in O rating to give them a league-leading 123.1 points per game. The Hornets were actually playing some decent defense to close the year, but Charlotte was consistently getting wrecked when LaMelo was on the floor with a 117.3 D rating. On the other side, the Hawks were pretty bad on defense under Snyder, as teams were able to destroy them with a 27th-ranked halfcourt D. This should be one of the best game environments on the slate.

*Trae Young will almost certainly get Terry Rozier on him for this game. Rozier guarded Trae more than anyone in the league last year, and Trae went for a 27/3/11 line in four games against the Hornets. Trae’s handling did slightly come down when Snyder took over, but being the QB of one of the league’s best offenses should lead to some huge Trae lines this year. Expect him to get hot early here.

*Dejounte Murray may get the best matchup for the Hawks with the Hornets likely having to put LaMelo Ball on him to start. Although, he’ll almost certainly run into a decent bit of Brandon Miller, but Dejounte should handle the rookie. On the Snyder stuff, Dejounte didn’t really see his stats change at all, but you’d think he could have a better edge on the glass with the Hawks losing size in John Collins.

*De’Andre Hunter will likely get the matchup of Gordon Hayward on both ends. Hunter was limited in the preseason to just two games, and he’s been bitten by the injury bug a ton over his career. With Jalen Johnson earning minutes, there may not be enough upside on Hunter on this big slate.

*Saddiq Bey also has to share minutes with Johnson, and Snyder mentioned that he’s not committed to a particular rotation/lineup. Bey was playing off the ball when he was in the starting lineup but picked up some on-ball responsibility when he was running with the bench unit. Still, he’d have to catch fire from deep. I think he could really bury some 3-pointers tonight, though.

*Clint Capela will have to split minutes next to Onyeka Okongwu. Capela did smash against the Hornets last year with a 16/9/1 line over 25.3 minutes per game in three outings. The Hornets were slightly better around the basket last year, and Charlotte did allow the 10th-most points at the rim — they were a lot better at limiting points off O boards, though. I’d pass here. While Okongwu could sneak in for some PF minutes, it seems unlikely with this team being healthy.

*On the bench, Jalen Johnson and Bogdan Bogdanovic are locked for rotation spots. It’s too big of a slate to go there, though.

*LaMelo Ball is healthy and he’ll almost certainly run into Dejounte Murray after only getting one matchup against Dejounte last season. LaMelo looked fantastic during the preseason with his highest TS% in an 88-minute sample. LaMelo has seen a steady increase in his usage rate over his career, and he did up his drives per game. The problem for LaMelo last year was his FG% on drives really cratered. If he can get that back on track, it’ll be a huge season for him. I like him vs. Dejounte today.

*As mentioned in the Trae note, Rozier guarded Trae more than anyone last year, and that’s true on the reverse with Trae guarding Rozier more than anyone last year. That led to Rozier going for 24/2/6 in three games (LaMelo missed some), and it could have been a lot bigger had he been able to find his jumper. Last year, Rozier could not find his rhythm as a C&S guy, which came as a surprise after two incredible years in that department. With Rozier getting all of the non-LaMelo minutes and the Hornets dealing with so many injuries to their backcourt depth, I’d expect Rozier to come out hot to start his season.

*P.J. Washington had a strong three-game run against the Hawks with a 19/5/4 line in 32 minutes per game. The Hawks will run some smaller units out there to possibly make Washington a more appealing option. We’ve seen Brandon Miller slot in more as a SG at times, and Washington doesn’t appear to have too much competition in JT Thor. He’s a sneaky option today.

*Mark Williams has the C1 job to himself and he hit the 14-minute mark in three of the four first halves this preseason. We also saw him log big minutes to close last year at 30 per game in his final five. The Hawks were the third-worst D at the rim at 44.1 points allowed per game (Spurs, Blazers), so there could be ample opportunity for him to score down there. He may have to get lucky on the boards, but maybe the Hawks are worse there without John Collins.

*Brandon Miller and Gordon Hayward are probably going to split most of the SF minutes while they are slotting Miller in as a SG. With the Hornets dealing with guard injuries, there could be enough for these guys to produce. It’s a little thin, though.

 

Great matchup: Terry Rozier, Dejounte Murray

Good matchup: Trae Young, LaMelo Ball, Mark Williams, Clint Capela

Bad matchup: Nobody

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Washington Wizards at Indiana Pacers

Team Totals:

Injury Report: Johnny Davis (O, elbow), Anthony Gill (O, hamstring), Landry Shamet (O, toe)

Wizards projected starters: Tyus Jones, Jordan Poole, Deni Avdija, Kyle Kuzma, Daniel Gafford

Pacers projected starters: Tyrese Haliburton, Bruce Brown, Bennedict Mathurin, Obi Toppin, Myles Turner

Unseld quotes: Said Kuzma has a calf contusion (not a strain), said Bilal was playing with poise and aggression.

Carlisle quotes: Said they’re challenging Obi to be a better rebounder, said their turnovers were a problem in the preseason, said on the preseason finale that he still hasn’t figured out the rotation yet, said Ben Sheppard is “gonna be a pain in the ass to guard”.

Stats and Notes: 

*The Wizards look quite different and should be one of the worst teams in the league with an extremely weak bench. We can throw out most of the stats from last year, but for what it’s worth, they were 27th in post-break defense. The Pacers had the worst halfcourt D post-break last year, but it should be slightly better with Myles Turner healthy right now. This should be another great game environment.

*Jordan Poole was chucking in the preseason with his 35.9 usage rate ranking first among the 167 players logging 20+ MPG. Sure, some of that was tied to no Kuzma for a couple of his high-usage games, but it’s quite obvious Poole will be out there chucking. He’s shown he can really fill it up as a starter, going for a 25/4/6 per-36 line without Steph in the 2022 portion of the 2021-22 season. The matchup should be slightly favorable against Bruce Brown, but it’ll get a little worse when Andrew Nembhard mixes in to guard him. Maybe Kuzma is a little limited to give Poole a huge upside.

*Speaking of Kuzma, his calf contusion should get him in the lineup. He took a knee to his calf and it kept him out for the final two games. The matchup could be as good as anyone as the Pacers throw Obi Toppin and Benny Mathurin at him, but Aaron Nesmith behind them could be slightly worse for him. It’s tough to fire at a guy coming off an injury, but the upside could be worth it against a really bad defense.

*We get starter Tyus Jones every slate now? Unseld ran Tyus up to 17 minutes in the first half of the dress rehearsal to possibly get him to mid-30s minutes early this year. Jones isn’t a guy who can really fill it up as a scorer, but he gets an A+ matchup against a weak defender in Tyrese Haliburton. You may need a little more upside on a big slate, but I’d expect a great Tyus outing to start his Wizards career.

*Daniel Gafford gets a tricky matchup against Myles Turner. On the plus side, the Pacers can still give it up around the basket because Turner is putting out so many fires to get him out of position. On the bad side, Turner should keep Gafford in check when he can get a body on him. Overall, I like this spot for him, especially with some depth issues behind him in the older Danilo Gallinari.

*Bilal Coulibaly looks like he earned a rotation spot, and he could take Deni Avdija down a peg on the minute total. I’d probably just avoid these guys, but the matchup may be too good for Deni to leave him out of pools.

*Tyrese Haliburton had an extremely strong close to his 2023, as his usage increased while the Pacers were outrageous on offense in his eight post-break games (129.1 O rating, #SmallSampleSize). In the 2023 part of the year, Haliburton was tied for second in total touches per game, and he was way ahead of everyone in potential assists at 19.7 per game (17.2 Trae; led NBA at 10.9 dimes). The matchup is fantastic, as he’ll see a combination of Tyus and Deni in the first unit. The Wizards will probably trot out Bilal on him to see what the rookie can do with him. Whatever the case, expect Hali to go ham to start his 2023-24 season.

*Bennedict Mathurin gets the starting job from Day 1, and Carlisle did get him up to 17 first-half minutes in a dress rehearsal game. We also saw him get 36 per game in his final seven last year — they were obviously short-handed. I think Benny Math could get close to 33 out of the gate even with the depth behind him. While the matchup is pretty good against Deni, he really has to cook as a scorer because he doesn’t do much else.

*Bruce Brown should get the Poole matchup to give him arguably the best matchup of anyone on the Pacers. Carlisle got him big minutes in the dress rehearsal, and Bruce may also benefit from Poole being so turnover-prone. Brucey B could be one of the sneakier role players today.

*Obi Toppin fits like a glove in this offense, and he might have a hobbled Kyle Kuzma on him — it could be some Deni, as well. Obi held a decent usage rate at 17.8 in the preseason, and Carlisle said he wants to see Toppin hit the glass to possibly give him some double-double upside. The best news for Obi is that Jarace Walker looks to be buried, so Obi could be looking at some heavy minutes with Aaron Nesmith behind him.

*Play centers vs. Washington >>> ???? >>> Profit. Myles Turner should get going early and often against Daniel Gafford. This one is pretty easy.

*Buddy Hield coming off the bench makes him a tough option on this big slate today.

 

Great matchup: Bruce Brown, Tyrese Haliburton, Myles Turner, Tyus Jones

Good matchup: Obi Toppin, Jordan Poole

Bad matchup: Nobody

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Boston Celtics at New York Knicks

Team Totals:

Injury Report: No injuries

Celtics projected starters: Jrue Holiday, Derrick White, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Kristaps Porzingis (Note: Decent chance Al Horford starts for Randle matchup)

Knicks projected starters: Jalen Brunson, Quentin Grimes, R.J. Barrett, Julius Randle, Mitchell Robinson

Mazzulla quotes: Said the team is dealing with the high expectations they have this year, said they have “17 captains” on the team (didn’t name a captain), said reporters won’t ask him about starting lineups because he’s going to use so many of them.

Thibodeau quotes: Said he was disappointed in how the defense looked in the preseason, said Quickley was “nicked up a little bit”, said he’s “a big Quickley guy” and wanted him to get an extension.

Stats and Notes: 

*The Celtics look a little bigger this year and they should be able to lock up on D like last year as the league’s best post-break defense. They were also hot in the preseason as the league’s best offense, and we saw last year that the Celtics can get off to a hot start with a record-breaking offensive efficiency to begin the year. The other noteworthy thing on Boston is they were chucking those 3-pointers this month, ranking first in the league with 47.2% of their FGAs being behind the 3-point line. We know Thibs’ Knicks can really give up treys, so that’s going to be a big part of tonight’s game. Thibs was not happy with how the Knicks played defense this month, ranking dead last in D rating at 121.5. Yeah, yeah, preseason, but I’d expect the Celtics to handle things at MSG today.

*Jayson Tatum will almost certainly draw the Quentin Grimes matchup after Grimes picked him up for three games last season. Tatum was pretty solid in the N.Y. series last year with a 29/9/6 line in 41.3 MPG, and his size advantage on Grimes should put him in a decent spot. Additionally, Tatum is running the second unit, which could really boost his role when he’s out there with the back-end rotation players. He started fast last year and we can expect him to show out at MSG tonight.

*Jaylen Brown also had a strong season against the Knicks with a 27/7/3 line in 42 minutes per game. The Knicks put R.J. Barrett on him last year and that should be the plan again for the most part. Brown’s usage was a little down in the preseason, and it’s fair to think that he’d be more at risk of losing usage to KP and/or Jrue Holiday. Brown should still have plenty of ceiling, but the floor could be a little lower this year.

*Jrue Holiday was really quiet in the preseason with his 17.0 usage rate coming in as the lowest mark of his 14-year career. Sure, some of that could be because of him being the new guy, but Jrue was used as more of a connector than a guy who was running the offense. His PNR handler possessions accounted for just 28.2% of his total possessions used, which is way down from 37.1%. His spot-up plays were way up to 25.6% from 13.3%. Yes, #SmallSampleSize, but Jrue feels like he’s the clear fourth option on the offensive end. He’s going to be busy on the other end anyway.

*Kristaps Porzingis looked fantastic in the preseason at a 68.3 TS%, as the Celtics fed him as a roll man for a whopping 30% of his possessions. While the Celtics could opt to go bigger to slightly affect KP’s rebounding output, we know that Al Horford would just be sitting near the 3-point line on the offensive end. It’s not the best matchup for him with the Knicks being one of the better rim defenses in the league, but he may have a handful of clean looks as Mitch protects the paint.

*Derrick White is probably in the starting lineup, but it wouldn’t be surprising at all to get Horford in there to guard Julius Randle. Of course, we’ve seen Jrue Holiday guard a lot of PFs, but Randle has gone 8-of-12 shooting in the matchup minutes vs. Jrue in the last two years. I’d expect a decent bit of Horford either way, but I would probably look elsewhere.

*Jalen Brunson gets one of the worst matchups he could ask for. He’s almost certainly getting Jrue Holiday and Derrick White for the entire game, and his drive game could be limited by the fantastic Boston interior defense. While Brunson has one of the best roles in the league, I’d probably want another spend-up option today.

*Julius Randle probably runs into some tougher matchups with Al Horford and Jrue Holiday likely handling him for the whole game. Horford has been excellent at limiting Randle with the matchup data having him at just 6-of-17 shooting from the field last year and 8-of-21 two years ago (38.1%). We’ve seen Jules pop off in bad matchups before, but I’m a little worried here.

*With both Randle and Brunson in bad spots, could this be a spot for R.J. Barrett? It makes some sense, and Barrett had the biggest usage rate of his preseason career at 27.6 (24.5 last year). If you want to get into this game, R.J. is probably my favorite option. It’s not fun, though.

*There’s probably not enough payoff to go to Quentin Grimes, Mitchell Robinson, Josh Hart, or Immanuel Quickley here. There’s a chance that Mitch needs to play a bunch, and we’ve seen KP get cooked on the defensive end some of the time. Plus, the lead guys having such bad matchups could lead to more passes to Mitch.

 

Great matchup: R.J. Barrett (relative to teammates), Al Horford

Good matchup: Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown

Bad matchup: Jalen Brunson, Julius Randle, Kristaps Porzingis

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Houston Rockets at Orlando Magic