NBA Matchups: October 29

HOU @ TOR | CLE @ BOS | ORL @ DET | ATL @ BKN | SAC @ CHI | IND @ DAL | NOP @ DEN | POR @ UTA | LAL @ MIN | MEM @ PHX

Houston Rockets at Toronto Raptors

Team Totals: Rockets 119.8, Raptors 113.3

Injury Report: Jakob Poeltl (D, back)

Rockets projected starters: Amen Thompson, Kevin Durant, Jabari Smith Jr., Alperen Sengun, Steven Adams (Note: Could see Josh Okogie starting over Adams again)

Raptors projected starters: Immanuel Quickley, R.J. Barrett, Brandon Ingram, Scottie Barnes, Sandro Mamukelashvili

Udoka quotes: Said they had more assists because of pace and had better spacing, said they were careless with the fouls in the first half but were better in the second half, said Reed Sheppard was aggressive with his shot, said they took advantage of the Nets blitzing KD after they struggled with that against the Pistons, said they are expecting the Raptors to pressure the ball, said FVV is an extension of the coaching staff.

Darko quotes: Said they didn’t have intensity or attention to detail, said they really felt Wemby’s presence, said they have to figure out the start of the game (said they were better in the third), said he is really proud of CMB for making an impact on both ends while guarding Wemby, said it’s a tough start to the year for Jakob and his back injury could not let him finish the game.

Stats and Notes: 

*The Rockets have been able to carry over their strong offense in the preseason to the regular season at seventh in the NBA, but they are leaning on their top-ranked 44.9 ORB%. They were able to run a little more with their smaller lineup on Monday, but overall they are 29th in transition frequency to start the year. They are also not getting enough 3-pointers up right now, but again, who cares when you can rebound the ball like that? For the Raptors’ defense, they could be in some trouble in protecting the paint and are giving up the fifth-most attempts at the basket. They’re also just 28th in halfcourt defense, so it sets up great for Houston’s offense — Jakob Poeltl could miss this one to make it worse on rebounding, too. For the Raptors on offense, they are just living in transition, but despite their size, the Rockets have been the second-best team at allowing transition points to start this season. Plus, the Rockets have a great paint defense while they are giving up the most C&S treys per game at 33.0. The Raptors are going to have to up their 3-point frequency (29th).

*Alperen Sengun gets a tougher 1-on-1 matchup with Scottie Barnes getting that assignment (could also be some CMB). Sengun’s usage has come back to Earth after the big opener, and he’s only down to 40.5 frontcourt touches in his last two. The Raptors may also be more aggressive with putting two on him, so I’m not as in love with this spot for him.

*Amen Thompson should get the best matchup here. The Raptors have some really weak on-ball defenders, they’re bad at the basket, they get blocked a ton, and they love to play fast. Amen’s role has shrunk in the last two, but it’s largely tied to minutes. We’ve been waiting for a big Amen game, and we might get it here.

*Kevin Durant has been steady for most of his minutes, and he’s not really even touching the ball that much. This matchup may not be his best because the Raptors are playing so fast, and KD is likely better suited to put up bigger usage when he’s in more of a halfcourt game. I like the matchup a little more for Amen.

*It’s tough to get excited about most of the Raptors here because of the paint defense from the Rockets. Last year, the Rockets put Dillon Brooks and Amen on Scottie Barnes, and they were able to keep him to just 15 points despite some high-usage guys being out for TOR (R.J. Barrett, Poeltl). Scottie should need rim scoring, and I don’t think it’s going to be there for him. 

*Brandon Ingram may have to really carry this offense in the mid-range. He’s still first on the team in drives, and the 3-point volume has been fine at 3.8 attempts per game. It’s probably going to be Jabari Smith Jr. on him, but it could also be KD in this spot. He’s OK here.

*I’m not too confident in how the Rockets handle the first unit, which makes it tougher to predict the matchups. There’s a decent chance that they do start Josh Okogie, which would make Okogie the primary there for Immanuel Quickley. The Raptors will really need IQ’s 3-point volume, and he’s been driving enough to create offense at 11.3 times per game. He’s my second-favorite play after Ingram.

*I’m not too into R.J. Barrett because of good rim defense, and the Rockets have been strong in transition so far — that’s been a strength under Ime Udoka.

*If Poeltl can’t go, it’s probably viable to get into Collin Murray-Boyles.

Great matchups: Amen Thompson, Brandon Ingram

Good matchups: Immanuel Quickley, Kevin Durant

Bad matchups: Scottie Barnes, R.J. Barrett

Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics