Winning and transparency. Those are the main goals of the ETR props product, and in this space, we aim to peel back the curtain on our process and shed some light on what goes into both our player projections and how we actually select picks. Our hope is that sharing this with you will help you better understand how to attack these markets yourself.
Let’s jump into Week 1.
Week 1 officials: 12-6, +$564Week 1 alts: 1-12, -$18
Overall officials: 12-6, +$564; +28.02% ROIOverall alts: 1-12, -$18; -13.70% ROI
Props Total: +$546; +25.51% ROI
Interested in our NFL Props or NFL Full Stat Subscriptions? Make sure to read the FAQs before subscribing!
Isaac TeSlaa U1.5 Receptions +132 (W, 1)
Mean projection: 0.8
We talked in our props season preview about best ball rookie hype spilling into the prop betting markets in the early weeks, and Isaac TeSlaa was the poster boy for the phenomenon this year.
The combination of ample camp hype and the trade of incumbent WR3 Tim Patrick had TeSlaa flying up best ball draft boards. His longer-term outlook may be bright, but his Week 1 prop betting line presumed that he was already locked in as the WR3, or at worst splitting time there with Kalif Raymond.
Best ball hype aside, he’s still a third-round pick who had limited action with his starting QB in the preseason. These archetypes typically have little immediate impact. The ceiling may be high, as we witnessed on his sick one-handed TD grab late in Week 1, but TeSlaa was unlikely to win the WR3 role out of the gate. Here’s how we projected that WR3 role:
Christian McCaffrey U69.5 Rushing Yards -114 (W, 69)
Mean proj: 63.7
Our thought process was that, for all the noise and conjecture surrounding CMC’s calf injury last week, he was ultimately a limited participant in practice on Thursday and then a DNP on Friday. Our research shows those late-week downgrades are usually an ominous sign for skill-position players, and we docked him like we would any other player in his spot.
Pre-Injury Baseline
- 72% carry share (before calf issues)
- 16.4 carries
- 76.3 rushing yards
Friday Projection
- 60% carry share
- 13.7 carries
- 63.7 rushing yards
This rushing line of 69.5 assumed close to a full workload for McCaffrey, so given everything we knew at the time, we thought it was a necessary dock and a solid play. Even if active, there was some chance he would be limited — surely the 49ers wouldn’t run their oft-injured superstar into the ground in Week 1 on an iffy calf, right? And if we were wrong on the volume, there was a chance that inefficiency could carry the play, with Brandon Thorn identifying the Seahawks’ DL vs. the 49ers’ OL as one of the biggest mismatches of the week.
That’s what saved us in the end. The 49ers handed CMC 22 carries, tied for his highest rushing workload going back to 2023, but his 3.1 yards per carry allowed us to sneak in a win just under the line. We think our process was okay here, and this play is a reminder that unders can come with multiple realistic paths to winning (volume, efficiency, or injury).
Kareem Hunt O5.5 Rushing Attempts +102 (L, 5)
Mean proj: 7.3
There was a lack of conviction in the base work share between Hunt and Isiah Pacheco going into Week 1, but had we known it would end up as a straight 50/50 split, we would’ve made this our 50-unit whale play of the year.
Shockingly, Hunt ended up dead even with Pacheco in rushing work at five carries apiece. No one saw that coming, and it should’ve made for an easy win. The problem was that the Chiefs threw at the highest clip in the league in Week 1, both in raw pass rate and Pass Rate Over Expected, while simultaneously running the 12th-fewest plays (57).
This was a great play that just didn’t work out.
Justin Herbert O31.5 Pass Attempts -113 (W, 34)
Mean proj: 33.9
The Chargers are a surprise presence at the top of the aforementioned chart, playing with an urgency we haven’t seen much of in the Jim Harbaugh era. Last year, they were a plodding, balanced offense, with a -0.3% PROE while operating at the slowest pace in the league with an average of 37.7 seconds between plays.
This year? Well, they are just as plodding, taking 38.4 seconds per play, but their PROE of +5.8% was tied for the seventh-highest mark on the week. Some of that may be opponent-driven, but it’s a spot to keep a close eye on in the early weeks.
We didn’t have Herbert passing quite that much, but ultimately, this projection was pretty dialed in.
RJ Harvey O8.5 Rushing Attempts -108 (6, L)
Mean projection: 9.9
We had Harvey and J.K. Dobbins dead even in rushing market share at 43% apiece, which looks bad in the end with Dobbins getting 62% of carries to Harvey’s 23%. This is a classic “high uncertainty” spot, given it’s Week 1 and Sean Payton can be a very unpredictable coach. Here was our thought process:
- Given his second-round draft status and the general ambiguity in the backfield, there was at least some chance that Harvey would be ahead in base rushing work to start the year.
- We had Dobbins as the clear lead in the passing game, which might open up more rushing work for Harvey.
- With a -8.5 spread, there were plenty of blowout scenarios where Harvey could get there even if he was well behind Dobbins.
It was just a pretty low number for a guy who had a few different paths to a modest nine carries.
How to Get the Most From The ETR Props Subscription
The No. 1 issue subscribers face historically with our props subscription is getting our picks before lines move — and books move them quickly after our releases. (Note: This is a strong hint books understand that our picks are winning in the long run.)
A close second is that ultimately when subscribers get bets, sportsbooks are quick to limit accounts of winning bettors, making it challenging to continue to place bets.
Recognizing the above, we wanted to cover some ways to gain the most value out of our props product.
There are basically two ways to approach using this product:
- Get action on our official pick releases
- Use the subscription to find your own plays
- Use our projections and your own knowledge to select your own plays
- Use our Discord to connect with other bettors, discuss plays, and source together
Let’s talk about the official releases first.
Tips for Official ETR Bet Releases
1. Have as many outs as possible
Veteran bettors know this, but it’s worth stating — the more options you have to get a bet down, the better. We will usually list most of the more popular sportsbooks in our releases, but there are many more lesser-known books, and you should be signing up for all of them. Think about every release as a competition between other ETR subscribers, top-down bettors looking for off market lines, and the books moving lines. If you are betting against more subscribers on more well-known books, it will be harder for you to get bets. If you have outs that don’t face as much competition and don’t move as quickly, it will be easier for you.
2. Expect to get limited
Most books will end up limiting any bettor who displays a modicum of intelligence. Anecdotally, users have found that an account’s shelf life can sometimes be extended by “priming” it with square-looking bets early on — hold off on the player props at first and think parlays, and betting into high-liquidity markets like spreads and totals right before the game starts. In speaking with bookmakers themselves, there is some credence to the idea that they will often “pigeonhole” a new account into the sharp or square category.
If you decide to place some of your own action for fun (i.e., action you believe isn’t beating closing lines), it’s a good idea to do this on the book(s) that you think are most important for you to keep in action.
If nothing else, be sure you have a FanDuel account. They have the strongest track record for letting almost anyone get at least $100 or so down on a player prop.
3. Get fast and practice
Getting the bets is tough but not impossible. In a survey of our props subscribers, feedback indicated that subscribers were getting our prop releases between 60-80% of the time. The most successful users do it by having an intimate understanding of their book’s interface and knowing how to find what they need as quickly as possible.
This requires some practice and time spent with various user interfaces. Play around with desktop vs. mobile, make sure you are logged in ahead of the release, etc. There’s no replacement for practice and trying different approaches.
You’ll also find that some of the more successful users are surprisingly forthcoming with their tips if you ask them in Discord. Consider trying to add value in other areas for these veterans in exchange for help here.
4. Don’t go opposite ETR
While there are certainly specific instances where our release will move a line so much that it becomes +EV to bet the opposite way, we do not recommend it as a blanket strategy.
We have a track record of over 10% ROI on a sample of thousands of bets. We believe we have an edge. You shouldn’t be willing to put your money against us unless you have experience in these markets and know what you’re doing.
5. Consider derivative markets
If we release an over on a WR’s receptions, there’s also a chance some other correlated markets may be worth examining. Receiving yards, alternate markets, or even other receivers who we may think are in line for less work than the market is projecting. To be clear, this is nuanced and not recommended for very new bettors, but if you start noticing how markets move after certain types of releases, it may provide clues about how other sharp bettors are using our information, and you may eventually learn some angles to apply.
Tips for Using ETR Projections
This is a more complicated topic that we hope to shed more light on in future content. The most immediate things you can be doing to get the most out of our projections:
1. Act fast
The projections for Sunday’s main slate are released at 3:00 p.m. ET on Saturday, while the projections for MNF, TNF, and any island games are released at 3:00 p.m. on the day of the game.
Sharps, pros, and amateurs alike will be putting those projections to use immediately upon release, and the edges will dry up fast. If you’re not doing the same thing, there may not be much meat left on the bone by the time you get to them.
2. Use a tool like Unabated for median outcomes
Our projections are a mean number, not a median. The only way to project a true median outcome is by running the mean through a “sim” to get the full distribution of outcomes. While we are not making our sim outputs available to the public at this time, many subscribers are using tools like Unabated’s prop tool, which can give you a rough median outcome based on the mean.
It’s not a perfect solution, as their sim will not have the full context of ETR’s distributions, but it’s a good way to get a rough idea of what the median outcome is.
3. Know ball
No hacks here. Most people having success with our projections are doing it with a combination of the above tips and knowing ball.
We are going to be wrong sometimes. And other times just highly uncertain in specific tricky spots. So much of football is week-to-week ebbs and flows, and understanding the context in a given game. The most successful subscribers will be ones who can weigh those factors alongside our projections.
Interested in our NFL Props or NFL Full Stat Subscriptions? Make sure to read the FAQ’s before subscribing!
