Week 13 Record: 16-8, +$740
YTD: 189-155, +$1,530 (3.81% ROI)
The goal with our betting product is winning and full transparency. Every week, we’ll recap a selection of our official prop bets, telling you what we got right, what we got wrong, and how we got there. Here’s a look back at Week 13.
De’Von Achane Over 39.5 Rushing Yards -114 (73, W)
Mean proj: 60.7
The explosive rookie was practicing in full, with everything pointing to Achane being a full go coming off a knee injury, making this 39.5 line and its ladders extremely attractive.
We projected a near-even split on backfield carries, giving Achane 43.5% and Raheem Mostert 44.5%. Though much of it came in garbage time, Achane actually ended up leading the way with 50% of carries to Mostert’s 32%.
This was ultimately a bet on Achance being healthy and having a real role; that’s how it played out, giving us an easy win.
Kylen Granson Under 12.5 Receiving Yards -115 (72, L)
Mean proj: 12.9
Last week, Granson played behind Will Mallory. This week, he had more competition with the return of Alec Ogletree, giving the Colts four active TEs on game day.
You might expect, as we did, that Granson’s routes would take a major hit while competing with three other TEs. You’d be right, as they fell to 26%, his lowest participation of the year. It was the dream scenario for us; unfortunately, his targets per route run (TPRR) spiked to 25%.
Combined with by far his highest aDOT of the year (18), the result looks bad, but if we knew we were locking in a 26% route rate, we’d make this play every time.
Mike Gesicki Over 13.5 Receiving Yards -110 (0, L)
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