Winning and transparency are the main goals of the ETR props product. In this space, we aim to peel back the curtain on our process and shed some light on what goes into both our player projections and how we actually select picks. We hope that sharing this with you will help you better understand how to attack these markets yourself.
Let’s dive into Week 15.
Week 15 officials: 10-12, -$334
Week 15 alts: 0-9, -$157
Overall officials: 165-128, +$2,590; +8.18% ROI
Overall alts: 12-163, -$409; -21.80% ROI
Mike Evans U4.5 Receptions -148 (6, L)
Mean proj: 3.1
Tampa’s coaching staff used a lot of the same language regarding Evans’ return as they did when Bucky Irving and Chris Godwin were activated from injury. When asked whether Evans would be on a pitch count in his first game since Week 7, OC Josh Gizzard said, “I think so. I think the same plan we had with Godwin and Irving. It wouldn’t be fair to expect them to play a full game when they’re back. We’ll bring him along and let his play strength and stamina build up.”
Evans did not quite play a full game (70% routes), but that didn’t stop the Bucs from feeding him by far his biggest target share of the year at 36%.
His receptions and yards lines continued to sink even well after our play was released, so, despite the bad result, we think we were on the right side of this. It’s a reminder, though, that TPRR can be a tricky thing to project on these types of high-usage players coming off injury.
Breece Hall U64.5 Rushing Yards -114 (23, W)
ETR NFL Player Props
Our team includes renowned fantasy analysts Evan Silva and Adam Levitan, high-stakes professional DFS players, and specialists who cover niche areas that we believe are important to understand.
This team has an unmatched ability to project NFL player performance, allowing us to offer a high-quality player props recommendations to serious bettors.
Our NFL Player Props subscription unlocks this content, read on for more information.
Full Details » Already a subscriber? Log In
