Winning and transparency are the main goals of the ETR props product, and in this space, we aim to peel back the curtain on our process and shed some light on what goes into both our player projections and how we actually select picks. We hope that sharing this with you will help you better understand how to attack these markets yourself. Let’s dive into Week 17.
Week 17 officials: 8-9, -$175
Week 17 alts: 0-5, -$53
Overall officials: 180-147 +$1,907; +5.39% ROI
Overall alts: 13-170, -$400; -20.26% ROI
Malik Willis U16.5 Pass Completions -117 (18, L)
Mean proj: 16.1
Willis has been wildly efficient in spot duty this season with an 85.7% completion rate coming into his first start.
We obviously expected that to regress, and with both teams down their starting QB and a betting point total in the game of just 37.5 points, we also anticipated a relatively run-heavy affair on both sides, which is basically what we got.
The Packers ran just 44 plays and passed barely above a 50% clip, but Willis remained on an absolute heater. Not only did he complete a league-best 86% of passes this week, but he did so while throwing the highest average depth of target (12.4 yards) among all QBs.
Aaron Rodgers U30.5 Pass Attempts -130 (39, L)
ETR NFL Player Props
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