NFL Props Review: Week 3

Winning and transparency. Those are the main goals of the ETR props product, and in this space, we aim to peel back the curtain on our process and shed some light on what goes into both our player projections and how we actually select picks. We hope that sharing this with you will help you better understand how to attack these markets yourself.

Lets dive into Week 3.

Week 3 officials: 9-10, -$137
Week 3 alts: 2-24, +$57

Overall officials: 35-22, +$1,191; +18.86% ROI
Overall alts: 4-54, -$85; -15.82% ROI

Props Total: +$1,106; +16.14% ROI

Jacory Croskey-Merritt O46.5 Rushing Yards -114 (26, L)

Mean proj: 60.9

This had the makings of a great spot for JCM. After all, this was the guy the Commanders liked so much that they were willing to trade away incumbent Brian Robinson Jr. Like many, we expected him to pick up the bulk of the rushing work vacated by Austin Ekeler, but the Commanders had other plans for our boy Bill. 

Chris Rodriguez Jr., a healthy scratch until now, started the game and led the team in carries. We projected him well behind Croskey-Merritt and just a few points ahead of Jeremy McNichols, but it looked more like a committee tilted to Rodriguez.

Deebo Samuel also got a season-high three carries, so it’s clear in hindsight that they didn’t want to give JCM a ton of rushing work.

There’s always some uncertainty in projecting shifting backfields like this. Still, at a relatively modest line of 46.5 and with the Commanders being favored by a touchdown, there were a few different paths to a win, even if the projected rushing shares were off. But it seems we need to reassess our assumptions in Washington moving forward.