Winning and transparency. Those are the main goals of the ETR props product, and in this space, we aim to peel back the curtain on our process and shed some light on what goes into both our player projections and how we actually select picks. We hope that sharing this with you will help you better understand how to attack these markets yourself.
Let’s dive into Week 4.
Week 4 officials: 18-4, +$1,284
Week 4 alts: 1-14, -$1
Overall officials: 53-26, +$2,475; +28.59% ROI
Overall alts: 5-68, -$86; -13.26% ROI
Tyler Allgeier O23.5 Rushing Yards -114 (51, W)
Mean proj: 41.2
Allgeier’s rushing line was on the rise in the early going as the market realized he’d be siphoning off more carries from Bijan Robinson than expected. He was north of 40% rushing shares in Weeks 1 and 2, which pushed his rushing line all the way to 41.5 yards in Week 3.
In that game, he was completely scripted out as the Panthers pitched a shocking shutout against the Falcons in a noncompetitive affair. The market seemed to overreact to that one-carry game, assuming it signified a role change, but we saw it as a one-off outlier and solid buy-low opportunity, especially with the Falcons being small favorites this week.
Even being slightly conservative with a 37% projected rushing share for 9.6 carries, this bet graded out as one of our best on the week at over $30 EV (expected value). Allgeier wound up in a near-even split with Robinson at a 48% share, easily trumping this line.
TreVeyon Henderson U11.5 Rushing Attempts -139 (7, W)
Mean proj: 9.0
This was a similar spot where the market just kind of lost its mind based on the events of one game. Rhamondre Stevenson had two fumbles last week, and Antonio Gibson put it on the ground too, leading to more rushing work late for Henderson. Then we got a mid-week report from a Patriots beat writer noting that Henderson was the first ball carrier up in practice, with Stevenson going last.
All considered, you could understand why many assumed it was over for Rhamondre and the dawning of Henderson season. But head coach Mike Vrabel didn’t actually sound too down on Stevenson right after the game, and later in the week added, “If you’re asking me if Rhamondre is on some sort of discipline, no.”
Coupled with the fact that the rookie has been quite inefficient in his rushing role so far, we projected it to remain mostly static, and it turned out to be an excellent projection.
Zach Charbonnet O8.5 Rushing Attempts -108 (12, W)
Mean proj: 12.2
Let’s take another victory lap over having a better read on RB usage than the market while we can, because these come with plenty of variance, and we’re going to look dumb sometimes (see JCM last week and the upcoming pick as well).
But we nailed this one. Kenneth Walker III and Charbonnet were in a regular rotation in Weeks 1 and 2, with Charbonnet actually edging out Walker 49% to 43% in rushing share in those weeks. The Seahawks seemed determined to keep the rushing work close, regardless of who had the hot hand.
Then Charbonnet missed Week 3 with a foot injury. The prop markets assumed he’d take a back seat in his Week 4 return, lining Walker at 14.5 attempts and Charbonnet at 8.5. But despite a Questionable tag, Charbonnet got in three full practices ahead of Thursday Night Football. Without any injury red flags, we assumed we’d see more of the same rotation in the run game.
And even with a slightly conservative projected rushing share favoring Walker, this bet still graded out as a smash for us at over $30 EV.
Walker ended up taking a little more of the rush share than projected, but Charbonnet’s initial line was so low that it wasn’t close in the end.
RJ Harvey U28.5 Rushing Yards -112 (58, L)
Mean proj: 25.0
As mentioned, you’re going to look dumb at times betting into somewhat uncertain backfields. In this case, we bet on more of the status quo on the Denver rushing split.
We knew that RJ Harvey was likely to win more work at some point this year, but with rushing shares of 23%, 22%, and 14% over his first three weeks, and Sean Payton giving no indication of changing things up, it was tough to project such a massive shift this week.
We tried to build in some of it, projecting a 24% share for Harvey, higher than he’s had in any game this year and well above his overall seasonal share of 20%. Even if we had been more aggressive, this still would have shown as a strong bet for us. Basically, we were fading a full-on role change, which is what happened, with Harvey pulling almost even with JK Dobbins on carries, 14 to 16.
Tetairoa McMillan U72.5 Receiving Yards -114 (62, W)
Mean proj: 65
It’s always a bit scary fading an ascending talent like McMillan and his massive ceiling, but there were a few things to like about this bet:
- This line of 72.5 yards was his highest of the season by nearly 10%.
- Shutdown shadow CB Christian Gonzalez was back in the lineup and likely to key in on McMillan.
- The Panthers are still a poor offense and had the fourth-lowest team total of the week.
Ultimately, it played according to plan and was another stellar projection by the team.
