NFL Props Review: Week 8

Week 8 Record: 15-16, -$284

YTD: 108-101, -$577

The goal with our betting product is winning and full transparency. Every week, we’ll recap a selection of our official prop bets, telling you what we got right, what we got wrong, and how we got there. Here’s a look back at Week 8.

Dak Prescott Over 31.5 Passing Attempts -105 (30, L)

Mean proj: 33.5

The Cowboys abandoned the run entirely in a blowout against the Rams, posting an uncharacteristic +15% Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE). Their raw pass rate and PROE were both the highest of the year by far. It was all the more surprising against a Rams defense that had profiled as a run funnel coming into the week.

We probably should have been dead given the blowout script, but the Cowboys kept passing even with the game well out of hand, giving us hope before ripping it away when Dak was pulled early in the fourth quarter on 31 attempts for a painful hook after yet another TD pass.

We were likely getting there in any semi-competitive game (the spread was only around 7 points) — we’ll chalk this one up as a good bet with an unfortunate runout. 

David Njoku Under 16.5 Longest Reception -110 (41, L) 

Median proj: 13

Njoku had an aDOT of 3.7 yards coming into the week, the second-lowest mark among 45 qualified TEs.

This O/U of 16.5 was also his highest line on a Longest Reception prop since Week 1. As recently as two weeks ago, it was down at 12.5, making this 16.5 extremely attractive with an EV of $18.

Njoku’s target share did spike in this game at 24% (we projected 16%), and that ended up being a huge factor since his aDOT didn’t change much at 4.1. It’s possible we could have projected a higher target share given his 20% share over the previous three weeks.

We’ll mark this one as a miss. 

Dalton Kincaid Under 17.5 Longest Reception -115 (22, L)